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Journal : Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia

Comparison of SARIMA and BES for Forecasting Red Chili Production Agustina, Titin; Fitrianto, Anwar; Indahwati, Indahwati
Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Vol. 30 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18343/jipi.30.2.333

Abstract

The goal of this study is to compare the performance of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Bagging Exponential Smoothing (BES) models for forecasting red chili production. The secondary data used in this study came from BPS-Statistics Indonesia and the Ministry of Agriculture. The data include monthly national-level red chili production from January 2013 to December 2021. Data is analyzed using time series approaches such as SARIMA and BES. The performance of both systems was compared, and production forecasts were created using the best model. According to the research findings, for this dataset, the SARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 technique outperforms the BES method since it has lower MAPE and RMSE values, 7.06 and 95,473, respectively. The best model was then applied to anticipate red chili production from January to December 2022, resulting in a highly accurate MAPE of 5.39. Keywords: Bagging Exponential Smoothing, red chili production, SARIMA
Co-Authors A Halim A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W AA Sudharmawan, AA Adi Ardiyansyah Agus Supriono Ahmad Hasbirrosyid Annisa, Rizky Vitra Ansori, Muhammad Asni Asni Astuty, Eka Ati Kusmiati Ati Kusmiati Ati Retna Sari Bagus Kuntadi, Ebban Baiq Yuliana Rizkiwati D.Elysa Putri Mambang Damascena, Cindera Rosa Despita Maharani, Mutiara Ria Devara Efendy, Tafvian Dewi Apriyani Dina Pebriana Dylan Tamalsir Ebban Bagus Kuntadi Elpira Asmin Esmeraldine, Genevieva Evita Soleha Hani Feri irawan Fitrianto, Anwar Gaoz Rozi Fahraini Hani, Evita Soleha Hanna Lestari S., Hanna Lestari Hapsari, Triana Dewi Hari Purnomo Haryadi, Nanang Himawan, Fadhli Nur Husniah, Firra Amilul Indahwati Intania Riska Putrie, Intania Riska Isti Fitrah Ilmi Istiqomah Rizqi Maharani, Istiqomah Rizqi Khoriri, Syaifurrizal Kurnia, Daffa Varyno Kuswardahni, Nita Loekmonohadi Loekmonohadi, Loekmonohadi Lubis, Minda Sari Luh Putu Ratna Sundari M.Sastra Budiawan Mailoa, Joice Maulida, Nazhifah Shafta Meddiati Fajri Putri Melda Yunita Merry Tri H.S Merry Tri H.S, Merry Tri Mitania Dewi, Eva Lia Moh. Mahfud Effendi Moh. Wanda Aji Mudinillah, Adam Muna, Nilnal Mus, Rosdiana Mutiara Balquis Pamuji Mutmainnah Abbas Nurhidayati, Risqi Nurul Fikriati Ayu Hapsari Octavianti Paramita Pratiwi, Meihilda Dona Puspaningrum, Diah Qodarsih, Eva Chandra Raudhatul Ilmi Rindu Sefira Riza Zuliana Rosidah Rosidah Rosmiati Yuliana Samsudin Anis Saptariana - Selmiana Sapitri Siti Hadijah Siti Kurniyah Siti Nur Hidayati Sugeng Raharto Sulfiani, Sulfiani Sus Widayani, Sus Susilawati, Hirma Tri Haryadi, Nanang Wildan Muhlison, Wildan Wulandari, Heni Yayuk Putri Rahayu Yuli Hariyati Yuli Hariyati Yuli Haryati Zahrotul Mufidah