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Metaheuristic optimization in neural network model for seasonal data Budi Warsito; Rukun Santoso; Hasbi Yasin
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 19, No 6: December 2021
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v19i6.20409

Abstract

The use of metaheuristic optimization techniques in obtaining the optimal weights of neural network model for the time series was the main part of this research. The three optimization methods used as experiments were genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and modified bee colony (MBC). Feed forward neural network (FFNN) was the neural network (NN) architecture chosen in this research. The limitations and weaknesses of gradient-based methods for learning algorithm inspired some researchers to use other techniques. A reasonable choice is non-gradient based method. Neural network is inspired by the characteristics of creatures. Therefore, the optimization techniques which are also resemble the patterns of life in nature will be appropriate. In this study, various scenarios on the three metaheuristic optimization methods were applied to get the best one. The proposed procedure was applied to the rainfall data. The experimental study showed that GA and PSO were recommended as optimization methods at FFNN model for the rainfall data.
RELIABILITAS DAN AVAILABILITAS SISTEM TIGA KOMPONEN TERSUSUN PARALEL BERSERI Sudarno Sudarno; Rukun Santoso; Avida Anugraheni
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 6, No 2 (2018): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (313.818 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.6.2.2018.%p

Abstract

Reliability is the ability of a product or an item to maintain the required function of a specified period of time under given operating conditions. Availability is a measure of system performance and measures the combined effect of reliability, maintenance and logistic support on the operational effectivesness of the system. The system was formedby some components. This system could be broken, then it could not be operated. In order to system could operate again, it should be repaired. This system consist of three components, such that component-1 is a processor core, component-2 is interface input/output, and component-3 is memory. The system was arranged by parallel-seri.This paper use generation data. Data are failure time and repair time of components of system, respectively. Therefore, research variables are failure time and repair time of all component of system. The aim of this research is finding the mean time to failure and the mean time to repair components, reliability of system, and availability of system.The research result of reliability of system is 0.9998 while availability of system is 0.9987. These results could be concluded that system have best quality and high performing. Generally, if reliability value was higher then quality of system more perfect and if availability value was higher then perform of system was better.  Keywords : Reliability, availability, mean time to failure, mean time to repair.
MODEL ANTREAN KONTINU (STUDI KASUS DI GERBANG TOL BANYUMANIK) Sugito Sugito; Alan Prahutama; Rukun Santoso; Jenesia Kusuma Wardhani
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 5, No 2 (2017): Jurnal Statistika
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Muham

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (294.017 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.5.2.2017.%p

Abstract

Mengantri merupakan salah satu fenomena yang sering terjadi dalam kehidupan seharihari. Mengantri juga terjadi di ruas jalan tol terutama pada waktu sibuk. Sistempengumpulan tol elektronik atau Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) merupakan sistemterbaru dari gerbang tol Banyumanik yang mulai beroperasi pada tahun 2014. SebelumETC, pengguna gerbang tol Banyumanik mendapat layanan reguler, yaitu membayarbiaya tol secara tunai. Keuntungan ETC lebih banyak daripada penggunaan gardureguler, namun pengguna ETC masih sedikit dibanding dengan pengguna gardu reguler.Untuk mengetahui efektifitas pelayanan gardu digunakan analisis sistem antrean. Datayang digunakan adalah data waktu kedatangan dan waktu pelayanan kendaraan.Berdasarkan hasil analisis model antrean gardu reguler arah Ungaran-Semarang, modelantrean gardu tol otomatis arah Ungaran-Semarang, model antrean untuk arahSemarang-Ungaran gardu regular, dan model antrean pada gardu otomatis adalah(G/G/3):(GD/∞/∞).  Kata Kunci: Teori antrean, Simulasi antrean, Gardu tol reguler, Gardu tol otomatis.
KAJIAN PEMODELAN SPLINE UNTUK DATA LONGITUDINAL SEBAGAI PERKEMBANGAN DARI REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK Suparti Suparti; Alan Prahutama; Rukun Santoso
PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL & INTERNASIONAL 2017: Prosiding Seminar Nasional Pendidikan, Sains dan Teknologi
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (531.275 KB)

Abstract

Regression analysis can be approached by using parametric, semi-parametricand nonparametric regression approaches. One of nonparametric regressionapproach that great developed was Spline truncated, including for modelinglongitudinal data. Longitudinal data is data that consisting of several subjectswhich is each subject is observed repeatedly based on a certain time. Theadvantages of longitudinal data has provided more complexcityof  informationthan cross section and time series data. The spline approach was a segmentedpolynomial regression approach. Spline provides high flexibility due to the useof knot points. To determine the optimal knot points using Generalized CrossValidation (GCV). The principle of determining the optimum point of knot oflongitudinal data using spline truncated is basically the same as with Splinemethod  for cross section data, that is determination of knot point based on eachsubject. However, the estimation is done simultaneously so that each subject hasits own model. Keywords: Spline Truncated, GCV, Knot points.
PREDIKSI SIMPANAN BERJANGKA PADA BANK UMUM DAN BPR MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA DENGAN OUTLIERS DAN ARIMA BOOTSTRAP Shinta Karunia Permata Sari; Rukun Santoso; Suparti Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 6, No 3 (2017): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (682.708 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v6i3.19349

Abstract

Time deposits or often referred to as deposits  are deposits that take it in accordance with the time agreed. The position of time deposits in commercial banks and BPRs is monitored by Bank Indonesia, Because large time deposits affect the level of the economy in Indonesia, one of them to facilitate public credit in an opening and building businesses. However, in the course of this term deposit data position is influenced by many other factors that resulted in the existence of the data of this condition leads to the assumption of normality becomes unfulfilled. Some methods that can be used to overcome this problem include ARIMA Box-Jenkins with outliers detection and Bootstrapping ARIMA. In this case,  the data is public time deposits at commercial banks and BPR from January 2010 to April 2016. The best ARIMA model is ARIMA (1,1,0), With the best method is ARIMA Bootstrap because it has MAPE value (out sample) of 4.8257% less than MAPE value’s ARIMA with outliers detection which it has 6.1610%. Based on these results it is concluded that in this case the nonparametric method is more appropriate to be used by ignoring the distribution assumption. Keywords : Deposits, ARIMA, Outliers detection, Bootstrap ARIMA
ANALISIS GRAFIK PENGENDALI NONPARAMETRIK DENGAN ESTIMASI FUNGSI DENSITAS KERNEL PADA KASUS WAKTU PELOROTAN BATIK TULIS Hana Hayati; Rukun Santoso; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 1 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (489.819 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v3i1.4778

Abstract

The quality of the product becomes one of the basic factors in the decisions of consumers in selecting products. A companny needs a quality control for keeping the consistency of product quality. One of statistic tools which can be used in quality control is a control chart. If  the obtained data do not have  a specific distribution assumption, it is needs to use nonparametric control chart as the solution. One of ways to describe the nonparametric control chart is a kernel density estimation. The most important point in the kernel density estimation is optimal bandwidth selection and one of the method that can be used is Least Squares Cross Validation. In this case, will be described a nonparametric control chart to data of vanishing candle at batik in Pekalongan using Rectangular, Triangular, Biweight and Epanechnikov kernel density estimation. Based on the data processing using R.2.14, the result was obtained that from the four kernel estimatios which were used, the obtained control chart by the Rectangular kernel density estimation which have the largest value of variance. It shows that the control chart by the Rectangular kernel density estimation is the widest control chart. While, the obtained control chart by the Epanechnikov kernel density estimation which have the smallest value of variance. It shows that the control chart by the Epanechnikov kernel density estimation is the narrowest control chart
PEMODELAN DEFORESTASI HUTAN LINDUNG DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL GEOGRAPHICALLY AND TEMPORALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GTWR) Thea Zulfa Adiningrumh; Alan Prahutama; Rukun Santoso
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 7, No 3 (2018): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (467.997 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v7i3.26664

Abstract

Regression analysis is a statistical analysis method that is used to modeling the relationship between dependent variables and independent variables. In the linear regression model only produced parameter estimators are globally, so it’s often called global regression. While to analyze spatial data can be used Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method. Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) is the development of  GWR model to handle the instability of a data both from the spatial and temporal sides simultaneously. In this GWR modeling the weight function used is a Gaussian  Kernel, which requires the bandwidth value as a distance parameter. Optimum bandwidth can be obtained by minimizing the CV (cross validation) coefficient value. By comparing the R-square, Mean Square Error (MSE) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values in both methods, it is known that modeling the level of deforestation in protected forest areas in Indonesia in 2013 through 2016 uses the GTWR method better than global regression. With the R-square value the GTWR model is 25.1%, the MSE value is 0.7833 and AIC value is 349,6917. While the global regression model has R-square value of 15.8%, MSE value of 0.861 and AIC value of 361,3328. Keywords : GWR, GTWR, Bandwidth, Kernel Gaussian
ANALISIS ARIMA DAN WAVELET UNTUK PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI MERAH BESAR DI JAWA TENGAH Chrisentia Widya Ardianti; Rukun Santoso; Sudarno Sudarno
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 3 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v9i3.28906

Abstract

Time series is a type of data collected according to the sequence of times in a certain time span. Time series data can be used as a predictor of future conditions. Analysis of time series data, one of the ARIMA units, is a parametric method that requires an assumption to get valid results. Data stationarity is one of the factors that must be fulfilled. Wavelet is a non-parametric method that is able to represent time and frequency information simultaneously, so that it can analyze non-stationary data. This research presents forecasting the price of red chili in Central Java using ARIMA and wavelet with the approach of the Multiscale Autoregressive (MAR) model. The best model is the one with the smallest MSE value. The results showed that the ARIMA(0,1,1) model was said to be the best model with MSE = 2252142. However, because the assumption of normality is not fulfilled, an alternative process is done with wavelet. Wavelet approach results show that the MAR model Haar filter level (j) = 4 with MSE = 2175906 is better than Daubechies 4 filter 4 level (j) = 1 with MSE = 3999669. Therefore, the Haar wavelet is considered better in the time series analysis. Keyword : ARIMA, wavelet, MAR, forecasting, MSE
PEMILIHAN PERUMAHAN TERFAVORIT MENGGUNAKAN METODE VIKOR DAN TOPSIS DENGAN GUI MATLAB (Studi Kasus: Perumahan Mijen Semarang) Alika Ramadhani; Rukun Santoso; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 8, No 3 (2019): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (710.252 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v8i3.26678

Abstract

The increase in the population of Semarang has an impact on the increasing demand for residential housing. Unfortunately, the limitations of the area became an obstacle in Semarang to develop residential areas. This development of residential housing in Semarang leads to suburban such as Mijen. The method that can be used to choose favorite housing is Visekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Both methods can be applied to solve Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) issue. This study has 8 alternatives of residential housing in Mijen with 5 criteria such as Price, Payment Method, Building Specifications, Housing Facilities, and Location. This research was design with Graphical User Interface (GUI) Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) as computing tool. VIKOR and TOPSIS method on this research, obtained the same result that the most favorite residential housing is A5. Keywords: Housing, SPK, VIKOR, TOPSIS, GUI
PENERAPAN PENGENDALIAN KUALITAS DENGAN MEWMA DAN FUNGSI DENSITAS KERNEL MULTIVARIAT (Studi Kasus: PT Sukorejo Indah Textile Kab. Batang) Mifta Fara Sany; Rukun Santoso; Arief Rachman Hakim
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 8, No 1 (2019): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (612.263 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v8i1.26621

Abstract

In an era of industrial revolution 4.0, technology is increasingly sophisticated, requiring companies to be more creative. Product quality control is an effort to minimize the defective products produced by the company. The production of weaving sarongs at PT SUKORINTEX pays attention to the accuracy of the length and width of the sarong to conform to the standards set by the company. To find out the quality of woven sarong products at PT SUKORINTEX, analysis was performed using Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control charts and multivariate kernel control charts. The research variable was the characteristics of the X sarongs which is reflected in 2 variates, namely the average length and average width. Based on the results and discussion that has been done, the MEWMA control chart used a weighting λ which is determined using trial and error. MEWMA control charts can be said to be stable and controlled by λ = 0.1, Upper Control Limit (UCL) of 14.62943, and Lower Control Limit (LCL) of 0. Multivariate kernel control chart were declared uncontrolled with α = 0.1 and level = 0.06130611 because there were data that was outside the contour. Chart improvement was done by trial and error and obtained a controlled chart results at α = 0.01 and a level value of 0.03125701. Based on this case study, the quality control of the average length and width of WADIMOR woven sarong types 30 STR with MEWMA is better than the multivariate kernel density, because MEWMA is controlled and stable in controlling product quality. The results of the MEWMA control chart show a capable process because more than 1 process capability index value is obtained. Keywords: Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart, multivariate kernel control chart, process capability.
Co-Authors Abdiel Pandapotan Manullang Abdiyasti Nurul Arifa Abdul Hoyyi Achmad Soleh Ade Irma Pramudita Ade Irma Prianti Agum Prafindhani Putri, Agum Prafindhani Agus Rusgiyono Agustian, Kresnawidiansyah Aini Nurul Al Qarani, Muhammad Aqajahs Alan Prahutama Alan Prahutama Alika Ramadhani Alvita Rachma Devi Arief Rachman Hakim Aris Sugiharto Aukhal Maula Fina Aulia Resti Avida Anugraheni AYU LESTARI Bahtiar Ilham Triyunanto Brahim Abdullah Brahim Abdullah Budi Warsito Chrisentia Widya Ardianti Dhimas Bayususetyo Di Asih I Maruddani Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Aliyatus Saidah Diah Safitri Dinda Virrliana Ramadhanti Dwi Nooriqfina Emyria Natalia br Sembiring Endang Saefuddin Mubarok Erwin Permana Fauziyyah, Fida Fuadah, Alfi Gina Rosalinda Hadi, Bawa Mulyono Hana Hayati Hanum, Cholida Hasbi Yasin Hasbi Yasin Infan Nur Kharismawan Iryanto, Rivaldo Kurniawan Iyan Antono Jenesia Kusuma Wardhani Johanes Roisa Prabowo Khansa Amalia Fitroh Krismayadi Krismayadi Kurniawati, Galuh Nurvinda Laili Rahma Khairunnisa Lia Safitri Maharani, Chintya Ayu Mamuki, Emiliyan Margo Purnomo Mifta Fara Sany Mubarok, Endang Saefuddin Mubarok, Endang Saifuddin Muchammad Aziz Chusen Muhamad Syukron Muhammad Akhir Siregar Mustafid Mustafid Noer Rachma, Gustyas Zella Nor Hamidah Permana, Erwin Puspita Kartikasari Rahmat Hidayat Rahmatul Akbar Ratih Ayu Sekarini Ratna Kurniasari Ria Epelina Situmorang Ria Sulistyo Yuliani Rima Nurlita Sari Rismia, Erysta Risky Rita Rahmawati Rita Rahmawati Rosinar Siregar Saepudin, Yunus Sahara Sahara Sekarini, Ratih Ayu Setiani, Eri Shinta Karunia Permata Sari Siti Munawaroh Subagja, Asep Zamzam Subari Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sugito - Sugito Sugito Suparti Suparti Suparti Suparti Syazwina Aufa Syiva Multi Fani Tamura Rolasnirohatta Siahaan Tarno Tarno Tasrif, Mohammad Jon Tatik Widiharih Tatik Widiharih Ta’fif Lukman Afandi Thea Zulfa Adiningrumh Tina Diningrum Tita Aulia Edi Putri Tomi Ardi Uswatun Hasanah Utami, Krisdiana Nur Via Risqiyanti Wahyu Tiara Rosaamalia wardhana, galih wisnu Wijayanto, Ahmad Windianingsih, Agustin Wiwin Wiwin Wiwin, Wiwin Yuciana Wilandari Zen, Agustian