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DENGUE EARLY WARNING MODEL USING CLIMATE INFORMATION Rini - Hidayati
BIOTROPIA Vol. 19 No. 1 (2012): BIOTROPIA Vol. 19 No. 1 June 2012
Publisher : SEAMEO BIOTROP

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11598/btb.2012.19.1.236

Abstract

The use of early warning system is potential adaptation options to reduce the impact of the climate variability and change.  This study aims to develop a dengue early warning model using climate information.  The model was developed through three steps of analysis.  First step was to determine the length of periods used in prediction and optimal time for eradicating Aedes aegypti mosquito’s breeding sites.  Second step was to identify the best prediction model of dengue incidence rate (IR).  Third step was to develop an early warning model using stochastic spreadsheet.   It was found that the best predictors for predicting dengue incidence rate at week-n (IRn) were (1) rainfall index with two weeks lead time (ICHn-2).  The rainfall index of week-nth is a function of three week moving averages rainfall (CH3), i.e. (CH3n-1.155*CH3n-1+0.702*CHn-2), and (2) IR with one week lead time (IRn-1).  The IR model prediction was IRn = 0.795*IRn-1+0.067*ICHn-2 with R2=76.6%.  These models (result model from first and third step) can be used to provide early warning on optimum time for controlling the mosquito’s breeding sites and the need for fogging action in order to avoid the dengue incidence rate beyond the critical limit defined by the Ministry of Health
Co-Authors Abdul Syakur Absar, Rizki Maulana Abytia Etika Banja Achmad Fathoni Akhmad Faqih Al Maula, Sugha Faiz Alfianita, Dinna Alif Akbar Syafrianno Alimatul Rahim Amin Mansur Ana Turyanti Andini, Pewyni Dinda Andriyani, Dellia Yunia Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan Arinda, Dela Arnida Lailatul Latifah Asaari, Masagus Azhima, Farah Fauzan Bambang Dwi Dasanto Basri, Eko Prasetyo Berlian, Devi Bregas Budianto Byarwati, Muslikh Anis Citra Musafirah Isni Wahid Cokroadhisuryani, Hafidz Daniel Naek Chrisendo Dedldia, Desya Delia, Desya Dhani Mutiari Dipraja, Mazaya Raffrabiha Dirgha A. S. Adinegara Divina Umanita Iliyyan Dwi Adelianingsih Dwi Haryanti, Dwi Elania Aflahah Evi Sepri Yanti Fadhilla Tri Nugrahaini Farhan, Farid Maftuh Fatkhuroyan Fatkhuroyan Fatkhuroyan Fatkhuroyan, Fatkhuroyan Fitri Eriyanti Fitri Eriyanti Flegor Hermes Sabuna Furqon Alfahmi Ghazali, Muhammad Gustari, Indra Hagabean Nasution, Ananta Handoko Handoko Handoko Handoko Hanny Nirwani Hariani, Lilik Sri Harjoko, Tatang Kusuma Hasyim, Ahmad Maulana Hesty Juni Tambuati Subing Hidayat, Nizar Manarul Hutami Nur Saputri Ihsandi, Ezy Natan Ikoh Maufikoh Imelda Sari Impron Impron Indra Gustari Indrawati Indrawati Indrawati, I Isnaniah, Isnaniah Iswari, Maidilla Jati, Aden Bagus Kumoro Kusuma, Rifky Adam Lavenia, Rindy Lily Deviastri Lukman Hakim Lukman Hakim M. BL. de Rozari Mahiorh, Aqilah Widyas Maiyulisna, Maiyulisna Mamenun Mamenun Mamenun Mamenun Mareta, Lesi Mareta, Lesi Marlia, Ade Meidiati Sekarsari Melya, Doa Ina Rista Muh. Taufik Muh. Taufik Muhammad Syafei Muslikh Muslikh Muslikh Muslikh Muslikh Muslikh Musthofa, Zaini Naufal, Hazza Daffa Ningrum, Ajeng Cahya Noper Tulak Novvria Sagita Novvria Sagita Nugroho, Aditya Pratama Nur Rahmawati Syamsiyah Nurhasan Nurhasan, Nurhasan Oktavian, Rifai Muhammad P. Perdinan Penny Rahmah Fadhillah Perdana Wahyu Santosa Prasetya, Fahrizal Ary Putri Insyani, Nurdawani Rahmadi, Naufal Rasyid Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Hidayat Ramadhani, Reyhan Pasha Rayhand, Muhammad Ahmal Revia Muharrami Rizaldi Boer Roberto I. C. O. Taolin Roid, Al Majiid Bagus Safitri, Aida Nur Sagita, Fenny Yusuf Dwi Santikayasa, I Putu Saputra, Arya Bima Saputri, Mahardian Alfajrina Saudah, Urifatus Septina Tri Anggiani Setiawan, Romi Shaleh, Khairul Siti Marhamah Siti Marhamah, Siti Sjafrida Manuwoto Sofyan, Devied Apriyanto Supari Supari Tania June Tia Hardiyanah Toto Heriyanto Upik Kesumawati Hadi Wafa, Muhammad Husnul Wibawani, Arga Rosa Widyastuti, Novi Dwi Wilda Maulina Wirdanengsih Wirdanengsih Wisnu Setiawan Witasari, Upit Yon Sugiarto Yonny Koesmaryono Yuli Ifana Sari, Yuli Ifana Zhafiraah, Nazma Riska