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Journal : REKAYASA

Optimasi Model Natural Rural Electrical Cooperation Agency Untuk Memprediksi Debit Aliran Bulanan di Sub DAS Lesti Suhartanto, Ery; Andawayanti, Ussy; Dara Lufira, Rahmah; Utami, Rizki Tri
Rekayasa Vol 18, No 3: Desember, 2025
Publisher : Universitas Trunojoyo Madura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21107/rekayasa.v18i3.31267

Abstract

Climate change and land use change in the Lesti Sub-DAS increase the risk of flooding and land degradation, requiring reliable flow predictions to support water resource management. However, the performance of the NRECA model in predicting monthly flows in this region is still not optimal because calibration-validation strategies and the use of environmental parameters have not been systematically studied. This study optimizes the NRECA model to predict monthly discharge for the period 2011-2020 in the Lesti sub-watershed by calibrating the GWF and PSUB parameters based on rainfall, evapotranspiration, and watershed morphometry data in three data division scenarios (70:30, 80:20, and 90:10 for calibration:validation). The results show that all scenarios produce excellent performance with calibration Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values between 0.99491-0.99561 and correlation coefficients (R) between 0.99746-0.99785, while validation yielded NSE values between 0.89112-0.97227 and R between 0.49959-0.81520. The best scenario was obtained with a combination of 8 years of calibration and 2 years of validation, with NSE = 0.99561 and R = 0.99785 at the calibration stage, and NSE = 0.97227 and R = 0.81512 at the validation stage, indicating the model's ability to consistently represent monthly discharge variations. The similarity between the model discharge pattern and observations during the base and peak flow periods indicates that GWF optimization specifically improves the representation of base flow response. This study contributes by presenting an optimization-based calibration-validation scheme for the NRECA model, which can be used as a reference in conservation planning and reservoir operation management in watersheds with limited data.
Co-Authors Achsan Achsan Adelia Riska Pratama Agus Priombodo Agus Suharyanto Ainur Rofiq Kurniawan alby, lyn Alnino, Nugraha Faiz Amadea, Alzena Andriyani, Setinda Eka Anggara WWS Aniek Masrevaniah Ari Murdhianti Arief Andy S, Arief Ariston Samosir Arrokhman, Naufal Achmad Astri, Novianti Sidi Astuti, Ika Wiji Atthahirah, Mutiara Aulia Zahira, Nabila Azhar Adi Darmawan Bagus Wicaksono Bias Angga Permana Briantama, R. Haryo Budi Prasetya Chandy, Poetri Mustika Chintya Ayu Permata Herdita Cipta, Dara Marreta Dewa, Faralisintia Junia Surya Dewita, Monika Dian Chandrasasi Dian Sisinggih Djafar, Azhari Firmansyah Donny Harisuseno Donny Harisuseno Dukhosagt, Aini Nurnabilla Dwi Priyantoro E. Ball, James edy djuwito, edy Emma Yuliani Erfarras, Nadia Nahda Erryanto, Sandi Estefanus Wolok Evi Nur Cahya Fatwa Ramdani, Fatwa Firdaus, Alfian Fitriani, Deshinta Ghaisani, Amalia Harisuseno, Donny Harjono, Marie Augustin Alvidian Pangestuti Ais Hartawan, Muhammad Bobby Hawari, Hirzi Herdita, Chintya Ayu Permata Herdita, Chintya Ayu Permata Hidayat, Mustafa Mukti Hutagaol, Bachtiar Malthus Ima Sholikhati Imani, Reyhan Satya Itratip Itratip Jadfan Sidqi Fidari Jarwanti, Dieta Putri Jauhari, M. Reza Kafidani, Firyal Sekar Khairunnisa Khairunnisa Kiki Frida Sulistyani Kusumabrata, Luffi Laksni Sedyowati Larasati, Chyntia Prima Lily Montarcih Limantara Limantara, Lily M. Linda Prasetyorini Listya, Amifta Farah Lu'luil Maknun Lucky Dyah Ekorini M Bisri M. Amar Sajali Maharani, Amanda Putri Maharani, Fiadita Marta, Silvia Dwi Mike Yuanita Moh. Sholichin Mohammad Bisri Muarifah, Aulia Rahmawati Muhammad Ilham Muhammad Rifai nama, arnoldus NISA, ZUHROTUN Nomleni, Aprianto Noor Dinda Febrianingrum Novita, Firda Nurdiyanto Nurdiyanto, Nurdiyanto Nurviana, Syelawati Citra Kartika Nurwijayanti Partarini, Ni Made Candra Prasasti, Dwi Trisna PRIAMBODO, DIDIT Pudyono . Pulasari, Luh Ayu Putri Wedayanti Putri, Angelina Satya Rachmawati, Turniningtyas A. Rahma, Novi Fadhilah Rahmah Dara Lufira Rakhmawati, Dinia Dwi Ramadhania, Salsabila Razianto, Muhamad Zakaria Rendra Arif Yudiarso Rini, Syafadilla Enggar Rispiningtati Rispiningtati Riyanto Haribowo Rizki Ramadhani Rizki Tri Utami Rossy Tamaya, Hana Arum Runi Asmaranto Rushafi Oktaverina, Devy Adlina Sapto Dwi Hari Oktavianto Sekar Padma Lestari Senna Ananggadipa Adhitama Setyaningrum, Anggun Shihab, Muhammad Qurais Siswanti, Yuvika Rega Soebroto, Arief A. Solikin Solikin Sri Wahyuni Suciana, Ajeng Titin Suhardjono Suhardjono Sukoco, Arfinsyah Hanandha Sulfandi Sulfandi, Sulfandi Sumiadi, Sumiadi Suryoputro, Nugroho Syarief Fathoni, Syarief Tri Kurniawati, Tri Ussy Andawayanti Utami, Rizki Tri Very Dermawan Wahyuni, Sri Widandi Soetopo Yuliana Wardani Zahrani, Nafisah