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Posma Sariguna Johnson Kennedy
Universitas Kristen Indonesia
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Journal : Global Strategis

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Is the Ambition Hypothesis Exist on China's Defense Spending? Posma Sariguna Johnson Kennedy
Global Strategis Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): Global Strategis
Publisher : Departemen Hubungan Internasional, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Unair

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jgs.16.1.2022.31-50

Abstract

Since China conducted the economic reform in 1987, it has advanced a leap in its economy, technology, research, and military capabilities, surpassing many countries globally, even to have matched the United States. This study aims to discover whether there has been an ambition hypothesis in China when the country increased its defense since carrying out the reforms. This study adopts a quantitative analysis method that builds two simultaneous regression structural equation models: economic growth and military equation. The study results then indicate that China’s alleged motivation for ambition in determining the defense budget is met, where economic growth and taxes positively affect the military budget. The fulfillment of the hypothesis ambition in China is in stark contrast to the case of the United States, where economic growth and taxes negatively impact the size of the country’s military budget. In other words, unlike China, the United States increased its military budget when its economic growth got disrupted. For instance, during the trade war between the United States and China in March 2018, the United States eventually increased its military strength though its economy was hampered. Keywords: Ambition Hypothesis, Defense Spending, Military Strength, China-United States Rivalry, Trade War.   Sejak melakukan reformasi ekonomi pada tahun 1987, Tiongkok telah mengalami lompatan kapabilitas ekonomi, teknologi, penelitian, dan militer hingga melampaui banyak negara secara global dan bahkan hampir menyamai Amerika Serikat. Tujuan dari penelitian ini lantas adalah untuk mengetahui apakah terdapat hipotesis ambisi di Tiongkok ketika meningkatkan pertahanannya sejak adanya reformasi. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah analisis kuantitatif dengan membangun dua model persamaan struktural, yaitu persamaan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan persamaan militer, yang akan diregresi secara simultan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dugaan motivasi ambisi Cina terpenuhi dalam penentuan anggaran pertahanannya, dimana pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pajak berpengaruh positif terhadap besaran anggaran militer. Pemenuhan hipotesis ambisi di Tiongkok berbanding terbalik dengan kasusu Amerika Serikat yang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pajaknya justru berdampak negatif pada besaran anggaran militernya. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa Amerika Serikat akan meningkatkan anggaran militernya ketika pertumbuhan ekonominya terganggu. Contohnya, ketika Perang Dagang dengan Tiongkok pada Maret 2018 lalu, Amerika Serikat justru meningkatkan kekuatan militernya walau perekonomiannya sedang terganggu. Kata kunci: Hipotesis Ambisi, Belanja Pertahanan, Kekuatan Militer, Rivalitas China-Amerika Serikat, Perang Dagang.
Co-Authors 1, Silverawati ADOLF B. HEATUBUN Agustina, Doan Otanti Alexander Benedictus Bala T anastasia Anastasia Zefanya Anatasya Yanis Anggunsari, Ratih Anselmus Rufus Anton PW Nomleni Arif Fauzan, Arif Aswin Griksa Fitranto Ayub U.I. Meko Bala Tifaona , Alexander Benedictus Bala Tifaona, Alexander Benedictus Bastian Heatubun, Adolf Betayanti Oktavia Budi Leksono Busono , Bibin Busono, Bibin Chyntia Natasha Sihombing Cinta Sihombing Debbi Prasetia Angriawan Emma Tampubolon Emma Tampubolon Emma Tampubolon Emma Tampubolon, Emma Erida Manalu Ezra Juninda Butar-Butar Fakhriansyah, Muhammad Farida Gultom Franky Sitorus Haetami, H Haetami, Haetami Hardi Surya Surya Harefa, Alvani Amaerita Harya P, Timothy Wisnu Hendrik, Toni Hidayat, Tofik Rahman Humala Situmorang Humala Situmorang Humala Situmorang Hutahaean, Ita Purnama Hutapea, Ganda T. Ignatius Abraham Enga Tifaona Irene, Patricia Josephine L.Tobing, Suzanna Kusuma, Vincentius Andi Mintarja L.Tobing, Suzanna Josephine L.Tobing, Suzanna Josephine L.Toruan, Rutman Laura Magdalena Tampubolon Lumbantoruan, Rutman Megawati . Melina Geni Putri Sinaga Melinda Malau Muliahadi Tumanggor Narsiana Melti Novita, Yohana Patricia Irene Permatasari, Fransisca Indah Pratama, Bernadt Andri Rahayu Widya Murti Rahman Hidayat, Tofik Rahmat Santoso, Rahmat Raintung, William Dwiarkha Lewu ratih, Ratih Anggunsari Ricky Martin Manullang Ricky Martin Manullang Ricky Martin Simanullang Ricky Simanullang Roy Sembel Rupiko Hayrani Rut Monica Desrianty T Ruth Mote Rutman L. Toruan Rutman L.Toruan Rutman L.Toruan Rutman Lumban Toruan Rutman Lumban Toruan Rutman Lumbantoruan Rutman Lumbantoruan Rutman Lumbantoruan1 Rutman Lumbatoruan Sahetapy, Mendy Thensya Santi Lina Santi Lina Santi Lina Santi Lina Siregar Santi Lina Siregar Sari, Oktavitaria Selvia Sitompul Septianingsih, Karunia Novia Ayu Setya, Roland Andi Sibarani, Mentiana Sihombing, Christina N. Silvanita, Ktut Simanjuntak, Cristin Simanjuntak, Priskila Theodora Sinaga, Monalisa Kartini Siregar, Santi Lina Sitorus, Frangky Yosua Situmorang, Humala Situmorang, Humala Sri Pare Suciati Suciati Sutrasna, Yudi Suwardi Mon, Petrus Suzanna Josephine L Tobing Suzanna Josephine L. Tobing Suzanna Josephine L.Tobing Suzanna Josephine L.Tobing Suzanna Josephine L.Tobing Suzanna Josephine Lumban Tobing Suzanna Josephine Tobing Suzanna Josephine Tobing Suzanna Josephine Tobing Suzanna, Suzanna Josephine LTobing Tarigan, Lukas Timothy, Miracle Tobing, Emerald GM. Tobing, Fenny BNL Tobing, Suzanna Josephine L. Tobing, Suzanna Josephine L. Tobing, Suzanna Josephine Lumban Toni Hendrik Toruan, Rutman L. Toruan, Rutman L. Toruan, Rutman Lumban Valensia Intan Dyah Kartika Winri Veronica Wulan Fitri Utami Yanis, A Yudi Sutrasna Zefanya, Anastasia