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All Journal IPTEK Journal of Science Jurnal Biologi Tropis Jurnal Pengabdian Magister Pendidikan IPA LOYALITAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Varian Jurnal Serunai Matematika BERDAYA: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Aplikasi dan Inovasi Iptek (JASINTEK) Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat BERNAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Agrimansion: Agribusiness Management & Extension Jurnal SIAR ILMUWAN TANI Agroteksos Jurnal Pengabdian Mandiri Journal of Agriculture (JoA) Amal Ilmiah: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Alamtana Sasambo: Jurnal Abdimas (Journal of Community Service)
Rifani Nur Sindy Setiawan
Universitas Mataram
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Neuroscience Nursing Public Health Social Sciences Veterinary Other

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Journal : Journal of Agriculture (JoA)

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Martket Market Share Analysis and Forcasting Export Trend of Indonesian Palm Oil: Response to Trade War 2025 Fitri, Febti Aulia; Hidayanti, Anna Apriana; Setiawan, Rifani Nur Sindy
Journal of Agriculture Vol. 4 No. 01 (2025): Research Articles March 2025
Publisher : ITScience (Information Technology and Science)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/joa.v4i01.5921

Abstract

The tariff war between the US and China in 2025 is a signal for Indonesia as the world's largest palm oil exporter that relies on both markets. Market diversification needs to be carried out to avoid instability and uncertain conditions. This study aims to analyze market share through the competitiveness of palm oil in 5 main export destination countries. The EPD method is used with secondary data from 2013-2023. After identifying the countries with the most potential for market penetration, the forecast of the value of Indonesian palm oil exports to these countries was carried out using the ARIMA method with monthly secondary data from January 2013 to May 2023. The EPD analysis results show that Pakistan has the highest Rising Star position, which means it has the greatest potential to be used as a destination for Indonesian palm oil exports. Meanwhile, the results of the ARIMA modelling found that the most appropriate forecasting model was ARIMA (1,1,1) without a constant. As a result, the forecast of the value of Indonesian palm oil exports to Pakistan shows a significant upward trend of 0.4% per month. This study found that the Pakistani market could be used as an export destination to diversify the market and, simultaneously, as an entry point to surrounding countries to prioritize the sustainability of the Indonesian palm oil trade.
Co-Authors Abdullah Usman Abiyyuzaki Syukran Addinul Yakin Aeko Fria Utama FR Aeko Fria Utama FR Amiruddin Amiruddin Amiruddin Amuddin Amuddin Anas Zaini Anna Apriana Hidayanti Anna Apriana Hidayanti Anna Apriana Hidayanti Anwar Anwar Anwar Anwar Anwar Anwar Anwar Apriana Hidayanti, Anna Ayu, Candra Baehaki Syakbani Baiq Rika Ayu Febrilia Baiq Rika Ayu Febrilia Baiq Rika Ayu Febrilia Carina Firstca Utomo Carina Firstca Utomo Dudi Septiadi Dudi Septiadi Dudi Septiadi Eka Numinda Dewi Mandalika Eka Nurminda Dewi Mandalika Eka Nurminda Dewi Mandalika Eka Nurminda Dewi Mandalika Eka Nurminda Dewi Mandalika Eka Nurminda Dewi Mandalika Fadli Fadli Fadli Fadli Fadli Fadli Fadli Fadli Farah Ainun Jamil Fauzan Fahrussiam Febrilia, Baiq Rika Ayu Fitri, Febti Aulia Gilang Primajati Halimatus Sadiyah I Ketut Budastra I Nyoman Budiantara Idiatul Fitri Danasari Istin Fitriana Aziza Kirti Verma L. Sukardi L. Sukardi L. Sukardi L. Sukardi, L. Lalu Sukardi Lalu Sukardi, Lalu M Yusuf M Yusuf M. Yusuf M. Yusuf Mandalika, Eka Nurminda Dewi Mariun Mariun, Mariun Miftahul Khairat Muhammad Nursan Mulyawati, Sri Nabilah, Sharfina Ni Made Nike Zeamita Widiyanthi Ni Made Nike Zeamita Widiyanti Ni Made Nike Zeamita Widiyanti Ni Made Nike Zeamita Widiyanti Ni Made Wirastika Sari, Ni Made Wirastika Nursan, Muhammad Nyoman Ari Sugiharta Pande Komang Suparyana Rahayu Rahayu SADIYAH, HALIMATUS Sa’diyah, Halimatus Sindy Tervia Siti Soraya Sofiati Wardah Sri Mulyawati Sri Mulyawati Suparmin Suparmin Supartiningsih, Sri Suprayanti Martia Dewi Syarif Husni Syarif Husni Ulfiyani Asdiansyuri Vita Ratnasari Wirajaya Kusuma Yakin, Addinul Zulkarnaen Zulkarnaen Zulkarnaen