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All Journal SEIKO : Journal of Management & Business AGROMIX Jurnal Pengabdian Magister Pendidikan IPA Jurnal Informasi dan Teknologi Management Studies and Entrepreneurship Journal (MSEJ) International Journal of Community Service Jurnal Peternakan Lokal Tarjih: Agribusiness Development Journal Jurnal Teknologi dan Manajemen Industri Terapan Journal of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Management Business and Accounting West Science Journal Economic and Entrepreneurship Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kewirausahaan West Science West Science Interdisciplinary Studies West Science Accounting and Finance West Science Interdisciplinary Studies West Science Social and Humanities Studies El-Mal: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi & Bisnis Islam West Science Agro Journal of Applied Agriculture, Health and Technology Journal of Ekonomics, Finance, and Management Studies Senadika
Dyah Ayu Suryaningrum
Universitas Sebelas Maret
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Journal : Tarjih: Agribusiness Development Journal

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Forecasting Red Cayenne Chili Prices to Maintain Inflation Stability in West Nusa Tenggara Masani, Sab'ul; Raisa, Daeva Mubarika; Suryaningrum, Dyah Ayu; Nasution, Ade Rezkika; Swarli, Yousf Bellin
Tarjih : Agribusiness Development Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): VOLUME 05, NOMOR 02, DESEMBER 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Agribisnis Universitas Muhammadiyah Sinjai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47030/tadj.v5i2.1027

Abstract

Inflation is a key challenge in economic management because it directly influences purchasing power, living costs, and price stability. In West Nusa Tenggara Province, red cayenne pepper is a volatile food commodity and a major contributor to regional inflation due to sharp price fluctuations and high consumption. This study aims to develop a price forecasting model for red cayenne pepper using the Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt–Winters) method, which accounts for level, trend, and seasonal components to reflect dynamic price movements. The study uses monthly red cayenne pepper price data from January 2022 to June 2025 sourced from the National Food Agency. Descriptive analysis is applied to identify price characteristics and movement patterns, while inferential analysis is used to estimate the forecasting model. The smoothing parameters α, β, and γ are optimized using EViews and Microsoft Excel to determine the best model specification. The results show that the optimal parameters are α = 0.1, β = 0.3, and γ = 0.3. The model successfully captures seasonal price behavior and achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 37.54% and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 25,557.5, indicating acceptable forecasting performance for a volatile commodity. Forecasts for July 2025 to June 2026 indicate substantial price variability, with the lowest projected price occurring in October 2025 at IDR 58,862.32 per kilogram and the highest in March 2026 at IDR 145,004.93 per kilogram. Seasonal patterns reveal price declines during peak harvest periods and sharp increases during supply shortages.
Co-Authors -Chi Huang, When Adi Masliardi Agung Zulfikri Ainil Mardiah Ainun Najib Alisyahbana, Andi Naila Quin Azisah Alwi Shahab, Mohammad Andy Rustandy Bagaskara, Bernardus Firman Baiq Rika Ayu Febrilia Bambang Amir Alhakim Christine Riani Elisabeth Clora Widya Brilliana Clora Widya Brilliana Darmawan Listya Cahya Dedi Mardianto Dendi Zainuddin Hamidi Dewanti, Rizki Puspita Dewi Zulaikhah, Dewi Didik Supriyanto Donny Juliandri Prihadi Endang Setia Muliawati Erwin Setiawan, Erwin Eva Desembrianita Eva Yuniarti Utami Fatimah Abdillah Hardian Ningsih, Hardian Hayu Lusianawati Hertini , Etty Sri Hugo Prasetyo Winotoatmojo Hugo Prasetyo Winotoatmojo I Gusti Ngurah Aryawan Asasandi If'all, If'all Ina Marwantina Indriyani Indriyani Indriyani Ivonne Ayesha Judijanto, Loso Khotimah, Suci Nurul Loso Judijanto Lusianawati, Hayu Machzumy, Machzumy Marcellino, Kevin Joushua Masani, Sab'ul Mega Herlina Puspitasari, Herlina Muh. Aniar Hari Swasono Muh. Rasyidin Muhammad Hazmi Muhammad Lucky P Muti'ah, Nurul Najdah Thalib Nasution, Ade Rezkika Nindy Puspitasari Nurdin, Fadilah Nurjanna Ladjin Oktarina P, Muhammad Lucky Paryanto, Edi Pratama, Maulana Aldi Puspitasari, Nindy Putri Asyari, Mutiah Dwi Putu Fajar Kartika Lestari Rachmadhan, Aditya Arief Rachmawanti Affandi, Dian Raden Kunto Adi, Raden Kunto Rahayu, Silvia Raisa, Daeva Mubarika Rizki Puspita Dewanti Rysca Indreswari Sab’ul Masani Silvia Rahayu Silviani Joice Lengah Siske Tontong Sri Mulyawati Susiang1?, Maria Imelda Novita Swarli, Yousf Bellin Thalib, Najdah Tontong, Siske Tribowo Rachmat Fauzan Tribowo Rachmat Fauzan Umarie, Iskandar Utami, Eva Yuniarti Utami, Sri Wira wahyuni wahyuni Widyaningrum, Marita Nur Wilda Sumarsyah Wulandari, Devita Endah Yulistiyono, Agus Yuni Kurniawati, Dyah Zainal Arifin Zulaekah Zulaekah