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Yundari, Yundari
Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universtas Tanjungpura
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Journal : Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)

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Cayenne Pepper Price Forecast in Singkawang City Based on Rainfall using Transfer Function Model Maharani, Citra Cipta; Yundari, Yundari; Satyahadewi, Neva
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 4 No 2 (2025): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol4iss2pp53-62

Abstract

Fluctuations in the price of cayenne pepper are a significant problem in Indonesia’s agricultural sector, especially in Singkawang City. Weather conditions, including rainfall are often the main factor affecting the production and distribution of cayenne pepper, causing price instability. This study aims to analyze the relationship between rainfall and the price of cayenne pepper, and build a forecasting model using a transfer function approach. In this study, the input series used is rainfall, while the output series is the price of cayenne pepper. The data used is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency in Singkawang City from January 2016 to December 2023. The data is analyzed through the stationarity stage, then the identification of the ARIMA model for the input series. After that, prewhitening and cross-correlation analysis were carried out to identify the parameter values and determine the noise series ARMA model. The results show that the transfer function model with parameters with ARMA noise series is the best model for forecasting the price of cayenne pepper. The results of forecasting the price of cayenne pepper in Singkawang City have a MAPE value of , so it can be concluded that the transfer function model is quite good at forecasting the price of cayenne pepper in Singkawang City with the highest forecasting result of IDR 61,899 in May 2024 and the lowest is IDR 32,206 in April 2024. This study focuses solely on the transfer function model because it is specifically designed to analyze the dynamic relationship between an input variable (rainfall) and an output variable (price). Other forecasting methods such as ARIMA or exponential smoothing only capture internal patterns within a single series and cannot represent the influence of external factors. Therefore, the transfer function approach is considered more appropriate for the purpose of this study.
Co-Authors Adrian, Ferry Ahmad Yani T Alexander Ananda, Adelia Angraini, Wanda Aprilianti, Aulia Aprizkiyandari, Siti Ariani, Prisilia Arizal, Arizal Asyrad, Adam Ayu Lestari Ayu Sri Utami Bambang Poniman Barita Riana Sitours Bayu Prihandono Brella Glysentia Vilgalita Chintya, Yuni Daniel Happy Putra Daska, Hipin Dea Rizki Darmawanti Dede Suratman Deni Winda Sari Desi Desi Ditanti Putri Shofia Eka Febrianti, Eka Eligia Helvianti Tri Lina P Elishabet Yohana Enis Rahayu Erlando Erlando Ervina Febyolga Evangelista, Gitta Evi Novian Evi Noviani Evy Sulistianingsih Fajria, Intan Luthfiani Fansiskus Fran Fikadila, Lisa Firhan Januardi Firmansyah, Dimas Fran, Fransiskus Fransiskus Fran Fransiskus Fran Hamdani Hamdani Hanssen, Calvin Helmi Helmi Helmi Helmi Helmi Helmi Helmi Hendra Perdana Hengki, Marius Henny Priandini Amalia Huda, Nur'ainul Miftahul HUDA, NUR’AINUL MIFTAHUL Huda, Nur’ainul Miftahul Ikbal Muhaimin Jonathan, Ryan Juwita, Dia Prima Laksono Trisnantoro Lauren, Nover Laurens Paskhia Dirda Rusanditia Lexandra, Natalia Lina Astuti Maharani, Citra Cipta Mariatul Kiftiah Martha, Shantika Meisita, Cheril Meliana Pasaribu Melinda Mareta Sari Mohamad Rif'at Mudinillah, Adam Muhammad Ilyas Mujiarti, Eka May Muslimah (F54210032) Nadia Putri Kurniawati Neno Juli Triami Neva Satyahadewi Nilamsari Kusumastuti Ningrum, Runi Aisyah Diyah Novia Kristefany Kabang Nurfadilah, Kori’ah NURFITRI IMRO’AH Nurfitri Im’roah Nurliantika, Nurliantika NUR’AINUL MIFTAHUL HUDA Pranata Anggi Priyatna, Tegar Rama Puspita, Urfila Dian Putra, Fajar Rahmana Putri Romanda Rachmawati, Febby Rahmah, Mhaulia Ramadhan, Rahul Ramadhanti, Tasya Redika Rayhannisa, Rayhannisa Rif'at, Mohammad Rifatullah, Rohit Riski Apriadi Rivaldi, Syahrul Rizki, Setyo Wira Ryan Jonathan Safitri, Fauziah Sasqia Aklysta Antaristi Setyo Wira Rizki Setyo Wira Rizki Shantika Martha Shantika Martha Silvia, Elma Silvy Heriyanti Suryani Suryani Takuan, Julianus Tambunan, Ayu Oktavia Tamtama, Ray Udjianna Sekteria Pasaribu Utriweni Mukhaiyar Venti, Monalisa Wele, Bruno Sala Winanda Epriyanti Yudhi Yulis Jamiah Zada Almira Zubaidah Zubaidah