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R. Widya Setiabudi Sumadinata
Universitas Padjadjaran
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Iran’s Surrogate Warfare Strategy against Israel: Geopolitical Maneuvering in the Palestine–Israel Conflict (October 2023–June 2025) Alwi, Abdullah; Sumadinata, R. Widya Setiabudi; Yulianti, Dina
Jurnal Pertahanan: Media Informasi tentang Kajian dan Strategi Pertahanan yang Mengedepankan Identity, Nasionalism dan Integrity Vol 12, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : The Republic of Indonesia Defense University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33172/jp.v12i1.20153

Abstract

The Israel–Palestine conflict experienced a dramatic escalation following Hamas’s launch of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation. The conflict triggered broader regional involvement through Iran’s network of allied forces known as the Axis of Resistance. This study analyzes Iran’s surrogate warfare strategy against Israel during the Palestine–Israel conflict from October 2023 to June 2025, focusing on how Iran externalizes the burden of war through proxy forces and technological means. A single-case study design with a qualitative approach was employed. Secondary data include statements from Iranian officials and Axis of Resistance actors obtained through official media channels, reports from think tanks, and international media coverage. Document analysis, content observation, and qualitative content analysis were conducted following Yin, (2018) framework. The study identifies four key dimensions of Iran’s surrogate warfare strategy: (1) delegation and outsourcing to non-state actors, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthi forces, and Iraqi resistance groups; (2) political efficiency achieved through plausible deniability while maintaining strategic influence; (3) multi-level contestation across military, diplomatic, and technological domains; and (4) a strategic shift from indirect confrontation toward a highly limited direct confrontation during the 12-day war in June 2025. Surrogate warfare enabled Iran to project power without direct involvement in the early stages; however, challenges of control and strategic blowback eventually forced limited direct military confrontation with Israel. Iran’s surrogate warfare represents an adaptive response to conventional military asymmetry but faces inherent limitations in controlling autonomous proxy actors and preventing unintended escalation. The transition to direct warfare in June 2025 indicates that surrogate strategies alone cannot address existential security threats, potentially reshaping the dynamics of regional conflict and the future applicability of indirect warfare doctrines.
Co-Authors Adhadi Astuti, Woro Palupi Adinda, Jovanscha Qisty Affan Sulaeman Afif Ginanjar Afif, Muhammad Fawwaz Akim Alwi, Abdullah Antika, Meli Arfin Sudirman Ari Ganjar Herdiansah Ari Ganjar Herdiansyah Arie Surya Gutama Arry Bainus Asep Hegantara Budiman Rusli Caroline Paskarina Darmawan, Wawan Budi Deasy Silvya Sari Deasy Sylvia Sari Dede Sri Kartini Dina Y Sulaeman Dina Yulianti Dina Yulianti Dina Yulianti, Dina Eko Sunaryo Elisa Susanti Eljatin, M. Azim Jabar Esty Fidhela Muliawati Fahmy Iss Wahyudy Fathullah Syahrul Fathullah Syahrul Gemayasa Kurnia Putra Ginar Maulana Hakiki, Falhan Hermansyah Putra Hermansyah Putra, Hermansyah Heru Nurasa Hidayat, Amri Wahid Ida Widianingsih Iriansyah, Mochammad Nurdi Karina Saphira Khairunnas, Khairunnas Khrisna Ariyanto Kurnia Kurnia Leo Agustino Leo Agustino Leyla Qarayeva M. Khoirul Malik Mas Halimah Mohammad Benny Alexandri Mudiyati Rahmatunnisa Muhammad Fedryansyah, Muhammad Muhammad Rizki Joyonegoro Muradi - Muradi Muradi Mustika, Anne Ratna Nabilaputri, Febrie Fitria Nova Iriansyah Nunung Nurwati Nurafifa, Humaira Octofianus Karubaba Otong Sulaeman Pasaribu, Tota Pratisti, Aliyuna Ramson Siagian Ratnasari, Novi Eka Rizkiah Rizkiah Rusnadiah Rusnadiah Satriya Wibawa, I Made Shela Marlian Sinta Ningrum Siti Sofro Sidiq Suganti, Yogi Suprayogi Sulaeman, Affan Syaiful Huda Syaiful Huda Sylvia Aprillia Taufik Hidayat Teguh Anggoro Tota Pasaribu Tota Pasaribu Tulus Santoso, Tulus Tumpal Silitonga Tumulo, Lukman Yusuf Wawan Budi Darmawan Wawan Darmawan Wawan Purwandi Willya Achmad Wirawan, Lukman Hadi Woro Palupi Adhadi Astuti Yanyan M. Yani Yanyan M. Yani, Yanyan M. Yanyan Mochamad Yani Yogi Suprayogi Sugandi Yusa Djuyandi Yusuf, Dedi