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All Journal Al-Fiziya: Journal of Materials Science, Geophysics, Instrumentation and Theoretical Physics JURNAL FISIKA JOURNAL ONLINE OF PHYSICS JPSE (Journal of Physical Science and Engineering) Journal of Physics and Its Applications JURNAL EKSAKTA PENDIDIKAN (JEP) KONSTAN - JURNAL FISIKA DAN PENDIDIKAN FISIKA JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI GERVASI: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Inovasi Pendidikan: Jurnal Pendidikan Gravitasi: Jurnal Pendidikan Fisika dan Sains Jurnal ABDINUS : Jurnal Pengabdian Nusantara Jurnal Fisika dan Terapannya PAKAR Pendidikan Jurnal Pendidikan, Sains, Geologi, dan Geofisika (GeoScienceEd Journal) Pillar of Physics Education : Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Pendidikan Fisika Pillar of Physics: Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Fisika JRFES Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS Journal of Climate Change Society Jurnal Lingkungan Almuslim Uranus: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro, Sains dan Informatika Journal of Experimental and Applied Physics
Letmi Dwiridal
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Analysis of the Effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Rainfall During the Dry Season in Padang Endar Sabila; Nofi Yendri Sudiar; Hamdi; Letmi Dwiridal
Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS Vol 4 No 3 (2026): Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mikailalsys.v4i3.11971

Abstract

Dry-season rainfall in Padang is highly variable and can reach extreme intensities; however, the influence of global atmospheric phenomena on rainfall variability during June–August (JJA) remains insufficiently understood. This study examined the relationships of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with dry-season rainfall variability in Padang. The analysis used daily MJO index data from the Bureau of Meteorology, monthly Dipole Mode Index data from JAMSTEC, and rainfall records from Minangkabau International Airport Station for 1991–2020 and Teluk Bayur Maritime Meteorological Station for 1994–2020. Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses were employed to determine the strength, significance, and temporal lag of the relationships between MJO and IOD activity and rainfall. MJO Phase 3 was positively and significantly correlated with JJA rainfall at Minangkabau International Airport Station (r = .254, p = .003) and Teluk Bayur Station (r = .232, p = .006), whereas MJO Phase 4 showed no significant relationship. Cross-correlation analysis identified a significant negative relationship at a lag of approximately 10–12 days, indicating that rainfall tends to decrease 10–12 days after the active MJO passes. By contrast, the negative IOD was not significantly associated with JJA rainfall in either the contemporaneous or lagged analyses. These findings demonstrate that MJO Phase 3 is more closely associated with dry-season rainfall variability in Padang than either MJO Phase 4 or the negative IOD. Monitoring MJO Phase 3 may therefore provide useful supplementary information for medium-range dry-season rainfall forecasting in the region.
Co-Authors - Hamdi Abda Abda Aditio, Rama Ahmad Fajrin Ahmad Fauzi Ahmad Fauzi Akmam Akmam Akmam Amali Putra Amirullah, Fajar Fikri Andini, Ulvia Sepra Andriani, Welli Annisa Rahma Jelita Asrizal Delima Putri Denandra, Alza Dhea Fitria Elizha, Zellvia Emiliannur Emiliannur Emriska, Vellya Ramadhani Endar Sabila Fadhila Ulfa Jhora Farras Drasih, Nabilah Fatni Mufit Fauzi Ahmad Muda Festiyed Florentina Simalango, Nora Fortuna, Aprilla Fuja Novitra Gusnedi Gusnedi Hamdi Hamdi Hamdi Hamdi Hamdi Hamdi Rifai Handayani, Silvia Sri Harman Amir hidayanti, hidayanti Hidayati Hidayati Hidayati Hidayati Hufri Hufri Husna, Azmi Asmaul Ikram, Riziqul Kiroomin Barorotin Muji Kolotosa, Julio Fadjar lara agustia Madinah, Nur Mahrizal Mahrizal Maidani, Delvi Putri Marlina Alimir Mesi, Mesi Mia Cahyanti Mufid, Muthia Muhammad Hafiz Murtiani Murtiani Mutiara Novichri, Viona Nengsih, Reni Fitria Nofi Yendri Sudiar Nur Azizah Percindira, Ella Dwi Putri Dwi Sari Putri Dwi Sundari Putri, Ulfa Haldiani Putri, Zakiah Putri Rahmat Hidayat Rahmy Novia Ratnawulan . Renol Afrizon Resa, Jerrifel Rata Resti Sundari rina, rina novita Salsabila, Salsabila Saqilah, Alya Sari, Nurul Fadillah Silvi Yulia Sari Siska Fitri Alwi Sri Ayu Wahyuni Sudiar, Novi Yendri Syafriani Syafriani Syafriani Syafriani Syafriani, Syafriani Syafriani, - Tati Herlina Wahyu Ramadhan Wahyuni Satria Dewi Wulandari, Mia Yana Ramadhani Yendri Sudiar, Nofi Yurnetti Yurnetti Yusrila, Yoga Zainul Adha Zatil Ismah, Amirah Zikri, Ahmad Raihan zu, Zurahma Zulhendra Zulhendra