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Journal : Bulletin of Social Studies and Community Development

Macroeconomic Factors Affecting the Growth of Micro and Small Industries in Indonesia Rusliana, Nanang; Jumri, Jumri; Busari, Arfiah; Darma, Dio Caisar; Kusuma, Jati; Nisa, Febriana Khoirun
Bulletin of Social Studies and Community Development Vol 5, No 1 (2026): Bulletin of Social Studies and Community Development
Publisher : Institute of Multidisciplinary Research and Community Service

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61436/bsscd/v5i1.pp01-16

Abstract

Micro and small industries (MSIs) play a crucial role in the national economic structure but are vulnerable to macroeconomic dynamics such as fluctuations in gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, exports, unemployment, and proportion of credit and tax incentives. The instability of these economic factors can directly affect the competitiveness and resilience of MSIs, making an in-depth study of their impact highly relevant. This paper navigates the relationship between GDP, tax incentives, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, unemployment, export value, and the proportion of credit allocated to micro industries, small industries, and MSIs as a whole. Medium-term data from 2013–2023, focusing on Indonesia, were observed using linear regression. Three main findings emerged from the analysis. First, GDP and the proportion of credit had a significant positive effect on micro industries. Second, tax incentives, interest rates, export value, and the proportion of credit had a significant positive effect on small industries. Third, the proportion of credit was the only macroeconomic factor with a significant positive effect on MSIs overall.  The empirical findings suggest that access to finance is a key determinant of MSIs performance, in contrast to other macroeconomic variables, which are often anomalous or contradictory. This reality highlights that limited access to credit critically hampers MSIS investment, growth, and productivity, even under relatively stable macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, in macroeconomic policy scenarios, transmission mechanisms such as inflation or interest rates do not always have an immediate or direct impact on MSIs due to their limited access to formal financial support. Future research is expected to analyse and re-examine the dynamic determinants of MSIs development using more diverse models and data extraction methods. Keywords: micro and small industries, macroeconomics, linear regression, Indonesia.
Co-Authors A, Erwin Kurniawan A., Erwin Kurniawan Adi Wijaya Adi Wijaya Adi Wijaya Agus Junaidi Akbar Lufi Zulfikar Ardi Paminto Arfiah Busari Ashari, Ihsan Asnawati Asnawati Aso Sukarso Bernard Ak Stephen Jussem Dhika Amalia Kurniawan Dian Wahyuningsih Diana Lestari Dirga Lestari Dirga Lestari Erwin Kurniawan A Erwin Kurniawan A Erwin Kurniawan A. Erwin Kurniawan A. Etik Umiyati Fitriadi Fitriadi Fitriadi, Fiitriadi Fitriansyah, Fitriansyah Gusti Noorlitaria Achmad Hakim, Y. Permadi Hakim, Yundi Permadi Hanapia, Asep Yusup Haryadi Haryadi Heksarini, Ariesta Hiram Ting Irsan Tricahyadinata Irwansyah Jati Kasuma Jati Kasuma Jiuhardi Jiuhardi Jiuhardi, Jiuhardi Johan Johan Juliansyah Roy Juliansyah Roy Jumri Jumri, Jumri Kuleh, Yohanes Kurniawan A., Erwin Kustiawan, Andriawan Kusuma, Jati Michael Hadjaat Mudrajad Kuncoro Muh. Alvianto Putra Arizandi Sadarrudin Muhammad Nurhikmat Muhammad Qodri Muhammad Ridlo Zarkasyi Musdalifah Azis Nia Kurniadin Nisa, Febriana Khoirun Nugraha, Cindera Syaiful Pratidhina, Puti Harissa Pratiwi, Resi Priyagus Priyagus, Priyagus Purwadi Purwadi Purwaningsih, Fita Purwinahyu, Purwinahyu Rahmawati Rahmawati Rahmawati Rahmawati Rahmawati, Rahmawati Robiansyah, Robiansyah Rusliana, Nanang Sampeliling, Alexander Siti Amalia Siti Maria Siti Maria Syachrani, Syaparliddin Tommy Pusriadi Widaryo, Chandika Mahendra Widayanti, Nurfiza Wijayanti, Tri Cicik Y. Permadi Hakim Y., Syaharuddin Yana Ulfah Yundi Permadi Hakim Yunita Ali Pujiastuti ZA, Saida Zainurossalamia Zainal Abidin Zainal Arifin Zainal Ilmi Zainal Ilmi Zamruddin Hasid