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All Journal Journal of Education and Learning (EduLearn) Jurnal Daya Matematis M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Jurnal Dedikasi EduLine: Journal of Education and Learning Innovation Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vokatek : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Seminar Nasional Hasil Penelitian LP2M UNM Paramacitra : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Hasil-Hasil Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Journal of Community Services and Development
AHMAD ZAKI
Department Of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar
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Penerapan Metode ARIMA dalam Meramalkan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik di Kota Makassar Maya Sari Wahyuni; Ahmad Zaki; Syarif Hidayat; Muhammad Isbar Pratama
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Volume 07 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i2.4388

Abstract

. Tingkat pemakaian energi listrik di Kota Makassar tiap bulannya pada tahun 2018 sampai dengan 2022 berbeda-beda. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan peramalan agar dapat dilakukan pengelolaan dan perencanaan kebutuhan energi listrik dengan baik. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui model ARIMA terbaik yang digunakan dalam peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik di Kota Makassar 12 bulan berikutnya. Tahapan untuk menentukan model ARIMA dimulai dari identifikasi kestasioneran data, indentifikasi model sementara, estimasi dan uji signifikansi parameter, uji asumsi residual, pemilihan model terbaik, melakukan peramalan serta uji ketepatan model peramalan. Hasil dari penelitian ini diperoleh model terbaik yaitu ARIMA(1,0,0) dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,4735% yang berarti bahwa model sangat baik dan layak untuk digunakan dalam peramalan. Kata Kunci: Energi Listrik, ARIMA, MAPE The level of electricity consumption in Makassar City every month from 2018 to 2022 is different. Therefore, forecasting is needed so that the management and planning of electrical energy needs can be carried out properly. The purpose of this study was to determine the best ARIMA model to be used in forecasting electricity demand in Makassar City for the next 12 months. The steps for determining the ARIMA model start with identifying the stationarity of the data, identifying temporary models, estimating ang testing the significance of parameters, testing the residual assumptions, selecting the best model, making forecasts and testing the accuracy of the forecasting model. The results of this study were obtained by the best model, ARIMA(1,0,0) with a MAPE value of 0,4735% which said that the model was very good and feasible to use in forecasting. Keywords: Electrical Energy, ARIMA, MAPE
Co-Authors Adesty Meilyani Lukman Ahmad Firjatullah Hakim Ahmad Firjatullah Hakim Ahmad Talib Ainun Najwa Alimuddin Alimuddin Tampa Anggun Nuraisy Shagli Anisa Tajang Jamiluddin Aslinda Aslinda asmaun, asmaun ASTRI YUNI HASHARI Astrianingsih Astrid Auliah Khoirun Nisa Auliah Khoirun Nisa BAKHRANI RAUF Bernard Bernard Besse Nur Afni Darmawang, Darmawang Eva Selya Fajar Arwadi Fauziyyah Alimuddin Hamda Heria Utami Hisyam Ihsan Ikram, Muhammad Ilham Minggi Ilham Minggi Ilham Minggi Imanuel Agung Sembe Irwan IRWAN IRWAN Irwan Irwan jafar Jafar Julinda Sari Kardilla Khawaritzmi Abdallah Ahmad Khuzaimah Nur Anisa Kristina Lubis Latri Latri Leini Marselina Mansyur Mansyur Mar Athul Wazithah T Mar'ah Mutaaliah Mario Mario Mario Mario Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Ammar Naufal Muhammad Farhan Muhammad Hasriyadi Basri Muhammad Hasriyadi Basri Muhammad Idris Jafar Muhammad Ilyas Thamrin Tahir Muhammad Isbar Pratama Muhammad Saddang Mustika Sari N. Nurhaeda Nasir, Norma Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Norliana Rahmasari Norliana Rahmasari Nur Indah Sari Nur Syuaiba Nurhaeda Nurul Rahmah Aisyah Jabir Nurwahidah Sari Purnamawati Purnamawati Rahmat Syam Rahmat Syam Rahmawati Patta Rezki Amaliah Nur Rismawati Rosidah Rosidah S. Sartika Saiful Bahri Saiful Bahri Sartika Sartika Sutamrin, Sutamrin Syafruddin Side Syafrudin Side Syarif Hidayat Syarifuddin Syarifuddin Usman Mulbar Wahidah Sanusi Wahyuni, Maya Sari Zainal, Zaid