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Syafruddin Side
Departement Of Mathematics, FMIPA UNM
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Journal : Signal and Image Processing Letters

 1 
Protecting South Sulawesi: Combination of Random Forest Regressor and SEIRS Mathematical Model in the Analysis and Prediction of the Spread of Covid-19 Bahar, Nur Qadri; Side, Syafruddin; Abdy, Muhammad
Signal and Image Processing Letters Vol 7, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Association for Scientific Computing Electrical and Engineering (ASCEE)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31763/simple.v7i1.126

Abstract

This applied research seeks to examine the dynamics of Covid-19 transmission in South Sulawesi Province. Additionally, this study will also forecast the future spread of Covid-19. This research comprises two phases: the investigation of Covid-19 transmission utilizing the SEIRS mathematical model, incorporating Vaccination and PPKM (Enforcement of Community Activity Restrictions), and the prediction of Covid-19 spread through machine learning techniques. The utilized data is secondary data sourced from the South Sulawesi Provincial Health Office. This study developed a machine learning model utilizing a random forest regressor algorithm due to its proficiency in identifying nonlinear data patterns. This model effectively accounts for the variability of the dataset (target variable) with a R2 score of 95%. The evaluation findings of the random forest regressor model indicated satisfactory performance, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 29.57 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 54.42 during training, and an MAE of 58.55 and an RMSE of 98.67 during testing. Given the significant variability in Covid-19 data and the prevalence of zeros in the dataset, the MAE and RMSE values for both training and testing are deemed acceptable. This model is designed to forecast daily Covid-19 instances in the future. This work not only employs machine learning but also analyzes the dissemination of Covid-19 through the SEIRS mathematical model, incorporating vaccination and PPKM factors. The SEIRS model analysis indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is stable when R01 and unstable when R01. The fundamental reproduction rate derived from the vaccine's efficacy is v=65.3%, and the compliance rate with PPKM is ?=1%. Consequently, R0=1.2407288, indicating that Covid-19 will propagate in South Sulawesi Province. For ?=11%, R0=1.0167230. This indicates that Covid-19 will stabilize, and with ?=69%, R0=0.2338689, suggesting that Covid-19 will vanish from South Sulawesi Province.?
Co-Authors . Sulaiman . Sulaiman . Sutra . Sutra Abdul Kadir Abdul Kadir Abdul Rahman Ahmad Ali Ramli AHMAD FAUZAN RIDHA SUJIONO Ahmad Yani Ahmad Yani Ahmad Yani Ahmad Zaki Ahmad Zaki AHMAD ZAKI Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aidid, Muhammad Kasim Aisyah Mukhlisah Araaf Aisyah Zahra Ramadhani Asya Akbar Aldri Frinaldi Alief Saputro Alimuddin Tampa Alvioni Bani Amal Arfan, Amal Amni Rasyidah Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik Andi Muhammad Ridho Sainon Andi Pandjajangi Andi Muhammad Ridho SAP Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pandjajangi Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andin P Angri Lismayani Annas, Suwardi Annisa Uniarti Annisa Uniarti Arifuddin R Arika Dwi Angraeni Rasida Arkas, Amaliah Nurul Armalinda Mohammad Adam Arsita, Asriani Asdar Astri Utari Aswi, Aswi Aulia, Hikma Bahar, Nur Qadri Baiq Nurkhalishah Beby Fitriani Bohari, Nurul Aulia Citra Suci Said Damang, Dahnial Dian Pebriani Emi Wulandari Fajar Arwadi Fitrah Mallolongeng Fitriyani Fitriyani Fitriyani Gita Tri Asfarina Gita Tri Asfarina Hadrianty Ramli Hadrianty Ramly Hasri Hasri Hasri Hasri Hasri Hasri Hisyam Ihsan Husnul Khatimah Syam Ilham Minggi Imron AY, Muhamammad Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Ismail, Khusnul Ryana Tasya J, Jusriadi Jafaruddin Jafaruddin a, Jafaruddin Jusman Jusman Kaito, Nurlaila Karwingsi, Ersa Katrina Pareallo Khadijah , Ummul Khairana, Nadiyah La Ode Salman Yassar Luthfiah Arradiah Mallolongeng, Fitrah Marfianti, Marfianti Meisy Tri Elsa Meisy Tri Elsa Miswar Miswar Mohd Salmi Md Noorani Mudinillah, Adam Muh Al Rasyid Ridho Muh. Rifki Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Arif Tiro, Muhammad Arif Muhammad Edy Rizal Muhammad Farhan Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Irfan Muhammad Isbar Pratama Muhammad Nur Ilham Muhammad Rakib Muhammad Ridho Yusuf SAP Muhammad Rifandi Muhjria, Muhjria Mulyaningrum, Dwidary Munadiya Yunadiya Musdalifa Pagga Musdalifah Pagga Musfira, Nur Fadillah Mustati'atul Waidah Maksum N. Nurhaeda Neldi Neldi, Neldi Nikmatullah Nur, Nikmatullah Nor Zila Abdul Hamid Nora Auliya Zahra Norliana Rahmasari Nur Fajri Setiawan Nur Izzah Nurdin Nur Khaerati Rustan Nur Qomariah Nurazizah Nurdin, Nur Izzah Nurhaeda Nurul Aulia Bohari Nurul Aulia Bohari Nurul Azizah Muzakir Nurul Fadhilah Syahrul Nurwahidah Sari Nusrang, Muhammad Padjalangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pagga, Musdalifa Palumpun, Feby Fristi Pandjajangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Puspitasari Putri Kharina Mahathir Hulinggi Qudratullah Qudratullah Rahman, Muhammad Fatur Rahmasari, Norliana Rahmat Syam Rahmat Syam Raihana Nurfitrah Raihana Nurfitrah Ramadana, Yusuf Ramadhani, Muthia Reza Arisandi Reza Arisandi Rifki, Muh. Risma Risma, Risma Rosmini Maru Rudi Ruliana Rustan, Nur Khaerati S. Sartika Sahlan Sidjara Sahlan Sidjara Sahlan Sidjara Sainon Andi Pandjajangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sakina Putri Sahara Sanusi, Wahida SAP, Andi Muh. Ridho Yusuf SATRIYAS ILYAS Setiawan, Nur Fajri Sopiyah Sri Indriani Sri Nur Qadri St. Nurhilmah Busrah Suciyanti, Nurafni Sudarmin - Suhartono Nurdin Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sulaiman - Sulaiman Sulaiman Supriadi Yusuf Suriyandi Suriyandi Sutriani Hidri, Sutriani Suwardi Annas Syahirah, Nurul Syahrana Syahrana Syana Nurul Utari Syarif Hidayat Syarif Hidayat Talib, Dr. Ahmad Usman Mulbar Wahida Sanusi Wahidah Sanusi Wahidah Sanusi Wahyuni, Maya Sari Wahyuni, Maya Sari Waode Nurlaelah Wulandari, Emi Yulita Molliq Rangkuti Yusnalia Kadir Yusuf S.A.P., Andi Muh. Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pandjajangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf SAP, Andi Muh. Ridho Yusuf SAP, Andi Muhammad Ridho Zahra, Nora Auliya Zakyah, Nur