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All Journal EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis Media Statistika MATEMATIKA Bionatura Statistika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi SEMIRATA 2015 Kubik JURNAL ILMU MANAJEMEN DAN BISNIS Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika International Journal of Supply Chain Management Jambura Journal of Mathematics Komputasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (JMP) InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics SMART SPORT KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika International Journal of Business, Economics, and Social Development International Journal of Research in Community Services Operations Research: International Conference Series International Journal of Global Operations Research International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling International Journal of Ethno-Sciences and Education Research Jurnal Matematika Integratif Mathematical Sciences and Applications Journal International Journal of Technology and Education Research
Sukono .
Department Of Mathematics, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran
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Estimation of Reinsurance Risk Value Using the Excess of Loss Method Jumadil Saputra; Tika Fauzia; Sukono Sukono; Riaman Riaman
International Journal of Business, Economics, and Social Development Vol 1, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v1i1.16

Abstract

As with any other business that has a risk of any incident in the future, the insurance business also needs protection against the risks that may arise in the company so that the company does not lose. Therefore, the need for anticipation in organizing any claims submitted by the insurance company to Reinsurance Company so that insurance company may assign any or all of the risks to reinsurance companies. In the method of reinsurance excess-of-loss there is a certain retention limits that allow reinsurance companies bear no claims incurred on insurance companies. The results of this study showed the average occurrence of claims and the risks that may be encountered by Reinsurance Company during the period of insurance. The magnitude of the risk assumed by the reinsurer relies on the model claims aggregation formed from individual claim size distribution models and distribution models the number of claims incurred in the period of insurance. Besides the magnitude of risk was also determined from the retention limit of insurance and reinsurance method used.
Comparative Analysis of Elementary School Student Knowledge Regarding Flood Mitigation in the Citarum Watershed Sukono Sukono; Eman Lesmana; Herlina Napitupulu
International Journal of Research in Community Services Vol 1, No 3 (2020)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijrcs.v1i3.103

Abstract

Flooding is a natural event, one of which is caused by the overflow of rivers. This disaster often occurs in the Dayeuhkolot area, Bandung Regency. Geographical conditions that are close to the flow of the Citarum River and the plains that are lower than the surrounding area cause this area to be flooded especially during the rainy season. This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of disaster training given at a young age and analyze the effectiveness of training methods provided in the form of games and PowerPoint media. This activity is aimed at grade 6th students at BojongAsih Elementary School starting with the questionnaire I which functions as a pre-test and ends with questionnaire II which functions as a post-test. Questionnaires were given at the beginning and at the end to see the extent to which the material provided new influence and knowledge to BojongAsih Elementary School students. The results of the questionnaire showed that before counseling about flood mitigation, samples were categorized as having a good knowledge of 91% and having poor knowledge of 9%. After counseling about flood disaster mitigation using games and PowerPoint media there was an increase in knowledge, samples that had good knowledge were 98% and those with less good knowledge were 2%. Based on the pre-test and post-test results, this activity was proven successful in increasing the knowledge of BojongAsihElementary School related to flood mitigation.
Covid-19 Pandemic Disaster Mitigation Training as an Effort to Minimize the Spread of Coronavirus in Majalaya Sub-District, Bandung Regency, Indonesia Sukono Sukono; Endang Soeryana Hasbullah; Yuyun Hidayat
International Journal of Research in Community Services Vol 2, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijrcs.v2i2.179

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit almost all countries in the world, including Indonesia. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has also affected the education system in Indonesia, which causes the learning system to be conducted online. However, in some regions in Indonesia, it is allowed to organize a face-to-face learning system. Where according to the direction of the Minister of Education and Culture in the 2021/2022 school year, it will be held with limited face-to-face learning while still implementing health protocols. Through the Community Service program with the topic "Covid-19 Pandemic Disaster Mitigation Training as an Effort to Minimize the Spread of Coronavirus in Majalaya District" aims to increase motivation to learn during a pandemic and provide understanding to students (i) SMA Negeri 1 Majalaya regarding the impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and health protocols that have been set by the Ministry of Health in an effort to minimize the spread of the coronavirus. This activity is intended for students (i) SMA Negeri 1 Majalaya by using the direct presentation method. This activity began with giving questionnaires to students to determine the level of student learning motivation during the Covid-19 pandemic. The results of the questionnaire showed that during the Covid-19 pandemic, students' learning motivation was quite affected. In addition, after counseling about the Covid-19 Pandemic disaster mitigation using Power Point media and games, there was an increase in knowledge of the impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and the health protocols set by the Ministry of Health in an effort to minimize the spread of the coronavirus. Based on the results in the field, this activity has proven successful in increasing the knowledge of SMP Negeri 1 Majalaya regarding the mitigation of the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Early Information on Active Cases in Zero Rejection Efforts for COVID-19 Patients in West Java Province 2021 Using the Feedforwards Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Yuyun Hidayat; Subiyanto Subiyanto; Titi Purwandari; Dhika Surya Pangestu; Sukono Sukono
International Journal of Research in Community Services Vol 2, No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijrcs.v2i1.140

Abstract

West Java noted, as of August 14, 2021, 653,741 people were confirmed positive for COVID-19. On the same date, the number of active COVID-19 cases in West Java was 65,000. There is a significant increase in active cases of COVID-19 in 2021 in West Java. In the period 5 June – 17 July 2021, there was an increase in the number of active cases by 95,532. In that period, active cases increased by 484%, and the Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java had jumped in June 2021 with the highest number of 91.6%, this figure far exceeded the WHO recommendation of 60% before finally continuing to decline and finally in August was at 30.69%. This has an impact on the incidence of patient rejection at the COVID-19 referral hospital. Active cases talk about COVID-19 patients who need medical treatment and new cases talk about the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, so these two things are very strategic to study. In this study, active cases and new case were predicted using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive cases, recovered and died of COVID-19 sufferers in 34 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2 March 2020 - 14 August 2021. The results of the study found, from the results of the evaluation using data testing the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10 – August 14, 2021, MLP is accurate in predicting the number of active cases for the first coming week 17 times, and the next two weeks for the second week 12 times with an absolute percentage error (APE) < 20%. As for weekly new cases, MLP has been accurate 10 times for the next one week and 9 times for the next two weeks. It is hoped that the results of this study can be useful for the government as a reference in conditioning the hospital bed capacity to deal with active cases of COVID-19 in West Java in the next two weeks so that no COVID-19 patients are rejected by the hospital because the hospital is full.
Mitigation of Natural Disasters as Efforts to Minimize Unwanted Impacts in Baleendah Sub-District, Bandung Regency, Indonesia Yuyun Hidayat; Sukono Sukono; Kalfin Kalfin
International Journal of Research in Community Services Vol 2, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijrcs.v2i2.196

Abstract

The Flood disaster is a natural event, one of which is caused by overflowing rivers. This disaster often occurs in the Majalaya area, Bandung Regency. Geographical conditions close to the Citarum River flow and the plains lower than the surrounding area causes this area to be flooded especially during the rainy season. Through the Community Service Program with the topic "training and simulation of natural disaster mitigation as an effort to minimize unwanted impacts in Majalaya sub-district" aims to increase the knowledge of the surrounding community regarding the impact of flood disasters and efforts to reduce the impact through mitigation efforts. This activity is aimed at 8th graders of SMP Negeri 1 Majalaya by using the presentation method using WhatsApp group media. This activity begins with giving questionnaire I which functions as a pre-test and ends with questionnaire II which functions as a post-test. The questionnaire was given at the beginning and at the end to see to what extent the material gave influence and new knowledge to students of SMP Negeri 1 Majalaya. The results of the questionnaire show that prior to counseling on flood disaster mitigation, the sample was categorized as having good knowledge of 87% and having poor knowledge of 13%. After counseling about flood disaster mitigation using PowerPoint media and games there was an increase in knowledge, the sample with good knowledge was 98% and those with poor knowledge were 2%. Based on the results of the pre-test and post-test, this activity proved successful in increasing the knowledge of SMP Negeri 1 Majalaya regarding flood mitigation.
Optimisasi Portofolio Mean-VaR di bawah CAPM Transformasi Koyck dengan Volatilitas Tak Konstan dan Efek Long Memory Sukono Sukono; Subanar Subanar; Dedy Rosadi
Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri Vol. 12 No. 2 (2010): DECEMBER 2010
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (193.527 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.12.2.89-94

Abstract

In this paper we formulated mean-VaR portfolio optimization through CAPM Koyck transformation. We assumed that lagged of risk premium which have highly influence on stock returns is infinite, while model parameters decrease geometrically. We also assumed that rate of return in risk premium market index is not constant, in other word has a non-constant volatility rate, and also has a long memory effect. The later was analyzed using ARFIMA. Non constant volatility rate was modeled via GARCH model. The portfolio optimization was constructed using Langrangian multiplier and the Kuhn-Tucker theorem was employed to obtain the solution by the least square method. Finally, we provide a numerical example of the optimization model based on several stocks traded in Indonesian capital market.
ANALISIS PENERAPAN METODE POHON BINOMIAL DAN METODE BLACK-SCHOLES DALAM PENENTUAN HARGA OPSI BELI Betty Subartini; Riaman Riaman; Nahda Nabiilah; Sukono Sukono
Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika Vol 6, No 2 (2021): September
Publisher : Universitas Galuh

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25157/teorema.v6i2.5781

Abstract

Opsi adalah salah satu surat perjanjian jual beli saham antara pihak penjual dan pembeli untuk melakukan suatu kesepakatan dengan harga dan periode yang ditentukan. Seseorang yang membeli opsi bisa memilih untuk melaksanakan haknya ataupun tidak. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui hasil perbandingan harga Opsi Beli Apple Inc., dengan penggunaan dua metode yaitu metode Pohon Binomial dan metode Black-Scholes. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dengan asumsi suku bunga bebas risiko dan strike price yang ditentukan sama, maka hasil perhitungan harga Opsi Beli dengan kedua metode tersebut hampir sama. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa harga Opsi Beli yang didapat dengan metode Pohon Binomial mendekati harga Opsi Beli dengan metode Black-Scholes. Sehingga kedua metode tersebut layak digunakan untuk perhitungan awal harga Opsi Beli.Kata kunci:  Metode black-scholes, metode pohon binomial, opsi tipe eropa
Optimisasi Portofolio Expected Shortfall Pada Saham Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan Nurul Fadilah; Betty Subartini; Firman Sukono
KUBIK Vol 5, No 1 (2020): KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/kubik.v5i1.7455

Abstract

Saham sebagai salah satu produk investasi di pasar modal Indonesia tentunya memiliki risiko yang dapat memengaruhi keputusan investor dalam berinvestasi, dalam menentukan risiko dapat dilakukan dengan melihat diversifikasi portofolio dari beberapa saham. Data saham meliputi perusahaan energi dan pertambangan yang memenuhi kriteria kapitalisasi pasar besar dan Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) rendah. Salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan untuk membentuk diversifikasi portofolio adalah Expected Shortfall (ES). ES adalah nilai ekspektasi dari return jika return tersebut melampaui batas return maksimum (Value-at-Risk). Dengan tujuan untuk meminimumkan risiko investasi. Dari perhitungan ES didapat masing-masing proporsi saham dalam satu portofolio optimal, dari beberapa portofolio yang dibentuk terlihat bahwa portofolio yang terdiri dari kombinasi saham paling banyak maka portofolio tersebut menghasilkan risiko yang paling rendah. Data dalam penelitian ini adalah data harga penutupan saham harian sector energi dan pertambangan periode Januari 2016 – Januari 2019. Ada beberapa tahap dalam penelitian ini. Langkah pertama adalah menghitung nilai return setiap saham perusahaan. Kemudian menghitung nilai expected return dan korelasi antar saham dari setiap saham perusahaan. Setelah itu pembentukan portofolio dan perumusan portofolio dengan menggunakan Expected Shortfall dengan fungsi tujuan yang dibentuk.
ESTIMASI POTENSI KLAIM MAKSIMAL DALAM RISIKO KERUGIAN KEBAKARAN RUMAH DENGAN METODE EXTREME VALUE THEORY (EVT) DI KOTA BANDUNG Moch Panji Agung Saputra; Endang Soeryana Hasbullah; Firman Sukono
KUBIK Vol 5, No 2 (2020): KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/kubik.v5i2.7445

Abstract

Permasalahan kebakaran rumah di kawasan padat penduduk memiliki tingkat risiko yang cukup tinggi. Salah satu kota besar dengan risiko tersebut adalah Kota Bandung. Risiko tersebut menimbulkan rasa khawatir dari masyarakat sehingga memunculkan produk-produk asuransi kebakaran rumah. Produk asuransi dibuat untuk melindungi konsumen dari risiko yang dijamin oleh sebuah premi. Perusahaan asuransi membentuk premi berdasarkan analisis perhitungan potensi klaim, biaya, komisi, dan margin. Dalam makalah ini dibahas tentang bagaimana mengestimasi potensi klaim maksimal dari risiko kebakaran rumah. Dalam hal ini potensi klaim didapat berdasarkan nilai kerugian kebakaran rumah tahunan (2007-2018) di Kota Bandung. Untuk mengestimasi potensi klaim maksimal dilakukan dengan metode Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Ada beberapa tahap dalam penelitian ini. Langkah pertama adalah melakukan resampling data dengan Maximum Entropy Botstraping (MEBoot). Selanjutnya, menentukan nilai threshold untuk mendapatkan data ekstrim. Kemudian, dilakukan uji Kolmogorov Smirnov untuk mengetahui kesesuaian data ekstrim dengan Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Setelah itu, melakukan estimasi parameter GPD. Kemudian, menghitung nilai Operational Value-at-Risk (OpVaR) sebagai ukuran potensi klaim maksimal. Hasil penelitian ini mendapatkan potensi klaim maksimal untuk satu tahun kedepan adalah Rp.18.690.352.676,615 dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Berdasarkan estimasi potensi klaim tersebut dapat dijadikan dasar pembuatan produk asuransi kebakaran rumah yang sesuai untuk masyarakat Kota Bandung.
Determining Sustainable Rice Farming through Supply Chain Risk Management: A Case Study in Central Java, Indonesia Agung Prabowo; Budi Pratikno; Jumadil Saputra; Sukono Sukono
International Journal of Supply Chain Management Vol 8, No 3 (2019): International Journal of Supply Chain Management (IJSCM)
Publisher : International Journal of Supply Chain Management

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The government through the Department of Agriculture has been cooperating with Indonesian Insurance Services or PT. A suransiJasa Indonesia (PT. Jasindo), to implement an insurance program for farmers throughout the country known as rice farming insurance (RFI).The supply chain efficiency and risk management may be two causal factors to uplift the economic conditions of the agricultural communities. The premium rate for 1 hectare of land designated at 3% of the maximum benefit value of IDR 6,000,000. Consequently, the premium received by PT. Jasindo for each hectare is IDR 180,000 of which the Government subsidy pays IDR 144,000,andfarmers will pay the remaining IDR 36,000 of the premium. This research will determine the actuarially fair premium rate, both theoretically and using the data of rice harvest yield in Central Java Province from 1990-2017. The calculation, employing the rice harvest yield data, results in the premium rate. The farmers must pay for each hectare from IDR 56,000 (minimum) to IDR 161,600 (maximum) with an average value of IDR 110,750.Meanwhile,the standard deviation principle used, the premium results between IDR 78,151 and IDR 143,349. The rate of IDR 208,458 per hectare has theoretically generated if there are 100 participants per regency (city) or in size of 3,500 hectares throughout Central Java Province and IDR 182,846 per hectare if there are 10,000 participants or about 350,000 hectares. These values are not much different from RFI premium currently applied to farmers throughout Indonesia.
Co-Authors Abdul Talib Bon Abiodun Ezekiel Owoyemi Achmad Bachrudin Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie Agung Prabowo Agung Prabowo Agung Prabowo Agung, Moch Panji Agus Santoso Agus Santoso Agus Sugandha Agustini Tripena Br Surbakti Aisyah Nurul Aini Amalia, Hana Safrina Apipah Jahira, Juwita Asep K Supriatna Asep Saepulrohman Asep Solih Awalluddin, Asep Solih Asri Rula Hanifah Aulia Kirana Aziza Ayu Nurjannah Basuki , Basuki Basuki Bayyinah, Ayyinah Nur Betty Subartini Bimasota Aji Pamungkas bin Mamat, Mustafa Budi Pratikno Candra Budi Wijaya Carissa, Katherine Liora Dara Selvi Mariani Dedy Rosadi Dedy Rosadi DEWI RATNASARI Dewi Ratnasari Dhika Surya Pangestu Diah Chaerani Diah Paramita Amitarwati Diana Ekanurnia Dihna, Elza Rahma Dini Aulia Dwi Susanti Dwi Susanti Dwi Susanti Dwi Susanti Dwi Susanti Eddy Djauhari Edi Kurniadi Ema Carnia Emah Suryamah, Emah Eman Lesmana Endang Rusyaman Endang Soeryana Hasbullah Fasa, Rayyan Al Muddatstsir Febrianty, Popy Firdaus, Muhammad Rayhan Forman Ivana S. S. S. Ghazali, Puspa Liza Grida Saktian Laksito Hadiana, Asep Id Haq, Fadiah Hasna Nadiatul Hasriati Hasriati Hazelino Rafi Pradaswara Herlina Napitupulu Herlina Napitupulu Hidayana, Rizki Apriva Ibrahim M Sulaiman Ihda Hasbiyati Iin Irianingsih Ira Sumiati Ismail Bin Mohd Jumadil Saputra Jumadil Saputra kalfin Kalfin Khairi, M. Ihsan Kusumaningtyas, Valentina Adimurti Labitta, Kirana Fara Laksito, Grida Saktian M. Ihsan Khairi Maraya, Nisrina Salsabila Maulana Malik Ma’mur, Lutfi Praditia Melina Melina Melina Melina, Melina Mochamad Suyudi Mohamad Nurdin, Dadang Muhammad Arief Budiman Muhammad Iqbal Al-Banna Ismail Mustafa Mamat Mustafa Mamat Mustafa Mamat Nabilla, Ulya Nahda Nabiilah Nita Rulianah Noriszura Ismail Norizan Mohamed Novianti, Saqila Novieyanti, Lienda Novinta S, Fujika Novitasari, Ela Nugraha, Dwita Safira Nur Mahmudah Nurdyah, Himda Anataya Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim Nurul Fadilah Okta Yohandoko, Setyo Luthfi Pardede, Ester Priyatna, Yayat Puspa Liza Ghazali Putri, Aulya Putri, Linda Damayanti Putri, Sherina Anugerah Rahman, Rezki Aulia Ramdhania, Tya Shafa Ratih Kusumadewi Rayyan Al Muddatstsir Fasa Riadi, Nadia Putri Riaman Riaman Riaman Riaman Riaman Riaman Riaman Riaman, Riaman Rini Cahyandari Riza Adrian Ibrahim Rosadi, D. - Salamiah, Mia Salih, Yasir Sampath, Sivaperumal Saputra, Jumadil Sianturi, Sri Novi Elizabeth Sisilia Sylviani Siti Sabariah Abas Soeryana Hasbullah Sri Purwani Stanley Pandu Dewanto Subanar - Subanar . Subanar Subanar Subiyanto Subiyanto Sudradjat Supian Sulastri, S Sumiati, Ira Supian, Sudradjat Suroto Suroto Susanto, Sunarta Sutiono Mahdi Sutisna, Sarah Suyudi, Mochamad Suyudi, Mochammad T.P Nababan Tampubolon, Carlos Naek Tua Tika Fauzia Tiswaya, Waway Titi Purwandari Titin Herawati Umar A Omesa Valentina Adimurti Kusumaningtyas Verrany, Maria Jatu Wahid, Alim Jaizul Wan Muhamad Amir W Ahmad Widyani, Azizah Rini Wiliya Wiliya Yasir Salih Yhenis Apriliana Yulianus Brahmantyo Yulison Herry Chrisnanto Yuningsih, Siti Hadiaty Yuyun Hidayat Zahra, Ami Emelia Putri Zinedine Amalia Noor Mauludy Reihan