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PEMODELAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI JAWA TENGAH MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI SPLINE Seta Satria Utama; Suparti Suparti; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (715.47 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8151

Abstract

Unemployment is one of the employment problems facing Indonesia. Central Java Province is one of the provinces with a high enough unemployment. The main indicators used to measure the unemployment rate in the labor force that is unemployed. Based on research Arianie (2012) labor force participation rate significantly affect the unemployment rate and based on research Sari (2012) the gross enrollment ratio significantly affects the rate of open unemployment. Therefore, in this study using the two predictor variables with the labor force participation rate as X1 and gross enrollment rate as X2. This study aimed to explore the model of open unemployment rate in the Province of Central Java. The method used is the method of spline regression. Spline regression has the ability to adapt more effectively to the data patterns up or down dramatically with the help of dots knots. Determination of the optimal point knots are very influential in determining the best spline models. The best spline models are models that have a minimum GCV (Generalized Cross Validation) Value. Best spline models for the analysis of the data rate of unemployment in Central Java Province is the spline regression model when order X1 is 2 and order X2 is 4 and large number of knots in the X1 is 1 knot at the point 68.02394 and X2 is 3 knots at the point 82.13, 87.19, and 87.65 with GCV value of 1.732746. Keywords: Rate of  Open Unemployment, Spline Regression, GCV
PEMODELAN MARKOV SWITCHING DENGAN TIME-VARYING TRANSITION PROBABILITY Anggita Puri Savitri; Budi Warsito; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 4 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (510.659 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v5i4.14717

Abstract

Exchange rate or currency is an economic variable which reflects country’s state of economy. It fluctuates over time because of its ability to switch the condition or regime caused by economic and political factors. The changes in the exchange rate are depreciation and appreciation. Therefore, it could be modeled using Markov Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probability which observe the conditional changes and use information variable. From this model, time-varying transition probability and expected durations are obtained; both are very useful to explain economic growth better and more detailed. This research modeled ln return value of Indonesian Rupiah to U.S Dollars and using ln return value of Indonesian Rupiah to Euro as information variable. The best model is MS(2) – AR(1). Overall, the mean of transition probability from appreciation to depreciation is 0,025242 and the transition probability from depreciation to appreciation is 0,666369. Expected duration of appreciation is 39,61623 days meanwhile the expected duration of depreciation is 39,18689 days. Keywords     : regime switching, Markov switching, time-varying, transition probability, expected duration
ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEMISKINAN DI JAWA TENGAH MENGGUNAKAN MODEL GALAT SPASIAL Octafinnanda Ummu Fairuzdhiya; Rita Rahmawati; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (652.239 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v3i4.8089

Abstract

Poverty is one of problems in developing country like Indonesia. From year to year, poverty in Central Java has decreased. This study is aimed to know the poverty model in Central Java by using Spatial Error Model. This research uses data from the number of poor people in Central Java in 2012. Spatial Error Model is a spatial method that showed spatial autocorrelation in the error. In Spatial Error Model, there are spatial dependency effect and spatial heterogenity. The variables that significantly affect the number of poor people in Central Java through Spatial Error Model are the percentage of 10 years old–over population with the highest education is primary school ( X2) and the number of households that have access to reliable drinking water (X3). This Spatial Error Model results R2 are 75,39% with the AIC are 63,36. It is better than regression model of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) which produces 66,3% of R2 with AIC are 69,286. It showed the poverty model in Central Java by using Spatial Error Model is better than regression model of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and in OLS assumption of homoskedasticity not significant. Keywords: Poverty, Regression, Ordinary Least Square, Spastial Error Model
PENDEKATAN MODEL FUNGSI TRANSFER MULTI INPUT UNTUK ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA LUAS PANEN DAN LUAS TAMBAH TANAM DENGAN PRODUKSI BAWANG MERAH DI JAWA TENGAH Yunisa Ratna Resti; Abdul Hoyyi; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 3 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (348.081 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i3.9551

Abstract

Onion is one of holticulture commoditie which is consumed by many Indonesians with Central Java as its largest producer. The consumer’s need of onion keeps raising but, unfortunately, its number in the marketplace is limited. The onion supply depend on onion’s production which is affected by some factors, such as the land condition from the beginning when cultivation is started until the harvesting come such as area of harvesting and area of additional cultivation. So that onion’s production modeling which influenced by significant factores is needed to predict the crops volume in the future. Data which is used to production modeling are data of onion’s production in Jawa Tengah, these data is written by Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan dan Hortikultura Jawa Tengah in everymonth. This research use multiple input transfer function model, which is an integration of ARIMA and regression model. This reseach aimed at modelling output series of onion production using two input series, i.e. area of harvesting and area of additional cultivation, from January 2004 to November 2014. The result showed that there is a significant correlation between area of harvesting and onion production, starting from lag t=0 during two periods, as well as area of additional cultivation toward the production from lag t=0. This multiple input transfer function method resulted in AIC valued at 3088.484. Keywords: Multiple Input Transfer Function, Onion
SIX SIGMA UNTUK ANALISIS KEPUASAN PELANGGAN TERHADAP PERSEPSI KUALITAS PROVIDER KARTU GSM PRABAYAR Dina Rosmalia Listya Utami; Mustafid Mustafid; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (616.745 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8100

Abstract

The company is currently competing industry in offering a good product in the form of goods or services in order to attract consumers. Competition industrial companies also occur in companies engaged in the telecommunications sector that influence the cellular telecommunications services company. In 2000 PT Indosat and PT Telkomsel was licensed as an operator National GSM 1800 as mandated by the Telecommunications Act No. 36/1999. In recent years, the Provider of Indosat and Telkomsel occupied the top two in terms of number of customers and the profit generated. This study aimed to analyze the level of customer satisfaction on the perception of the quality of the GSM prepaid card provider used by using six sigma method that becomes an approach to reduce the variability of the process through the use of statistical tools. In this study, the overall process is in a state that has not been well despite being in the category of satisfied but do not meet the targets used. DPMO results obtained from the Provider Indosat and Telkomsel to dimensions of technical quality and functional quality with a target of 8 each is 189718,8; 180625; 102343,8; 105250 with the sigma level 2,37; 2,41; 2,76 and 2,32. As for the dimensions of technical quality and functional quality with the target 9 on each Provider DPMO results obtained for 279750; 271666,7; 202083,3; 204666,7 with sigma level 2,08; 2,41; 2,33 and 2,32. These results are still far from the expected target is 3,4 DPMO and 6-sigma. Keywords: Six Sigma, DPMO, Service Quality, Customer Satisfaction.
PEMODELAN GENERALIZED SPACE TIME AUTOREGRESSIVE (GSTAR) SEASONAL PADA DATA JUMLAH WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA EMPAT KABUPATEN/KOTA DI JAWA TENGAH Ronny Gusnadi; Rita Rahmawati; Alan Prahutama
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 4 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (763.365 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i4.10237

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In many applications, several time series data are recorded simultaneously at a number of locations. Time series data from nearby locations often to be related by spatial and time. This data is called spatial time series data. Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model is one of space time models used to modeling and forecasting spatial time series data. This study applied GTSAR model  to modeling number of international tourist four locations in Magelang Regency, Surakarta City, Wonosobo Regency, and Karanganyar Regency. Based on the smallest RMSE mean of forecasting result, the best model chosen by this study is GSTAR(11)-I(1)12 with the inverse distance weighted. Based on GSTAR(11)-I(1)12 with the inverse distance weighted, the relationship between the location shown on International tourist arrivals Surakarta City influenced by the International tourist in other regencies. Keywords: GSTAR, RMSE, International Tourist
KLASIFIKASI STATUS KERJA PADA ANGKATAN KERJA KOTA SEMARANG TAHUN 2014 MENGGUNAKAN METODE CHAID DAN CART Novie Eriska Aritonang; Agus Rusgiyono; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 1 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (311.148 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v5i1.11045

Abstract

The growth of  labor will increase along with increasing population. Increasing the number of this labor of course going to have an impact on his status, whether employ or unemployed. The method can be used to classify the status of the labor is CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) and CART (Classification and Regression Trees). Both of these methods aim to identify factors that influence employment status. These methods will be applied for Semarang labor data in 2014. Based on CHAID method, the factors that affect the status of the labor is gender, age and status of the completeness of a life partner with accuracy classification results amounted to 72.63%. Factors that affect the status of the labor force with the CART method is gender, age, educational status, and the status of the completeness of a life partner with the accuracy of the classification is 72.79%. Based on proportion test, these methods are same of doing classification employment status.Keywords: Labor, Classification, CHAID, CART, Accuracy of classification
ESTIMASI PARAMETER DISTRIBUSI WEIBULL DUA PARAMETER MENGGUNAKAN METODE BAYES Indria Tsani Hazhiah; Sugito Sugito; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 1, No 1 (2012): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (431.31 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v1i1.578

Abstract

Interval estimation of a parameter is one part of statistical inference. One of the methods that used is the Bayes method. A Bayesian method is combine prior distribution and distribution of samples, so that the posterior distribution can be obtained. Interval estimation using a method Bayes called credibel interval estimation. In this thesis, the distribution of the sample is used a two-parameter Weibull distribution scale-shape-version of survival distribution (reliability). Data that used are data that is not censored data type and data type II censored if prior distribution using non-informative which of the produce distribution the resulting posterior distribution is gamma distribution. Parameters of the sample distribution that to find out is a parameter that  by the parameter c (shape parameter) known while the parameter b (scale parameter) had unknown.
PEMILIHAN PENGRAJIN TERBAIK DENGAN METODE ELECTRE DAN TOPSIS MENGGUNAKAN GUI MATLAB (STUDI KASUS : PT. Asaputex Jaya, Tegal) Hafii Risalam; Rita Rahmawati; Suparti Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 4 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (901.059 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v5i4.14723

Abstract

Company is technical unity that aims to produce goods services. One of determinants of succesful company is its human resources or known as employees. PT. Asaputex Jaya is one of company that enganged in the manufacture of sarong. Poor quality of human resources, especially on the production is still an obstacle for PT. Asaputex Jaya. Therefore selection of the best craftsmen need to be done so that production process doesn’t meet any probelms. This research was conducted to determine top craftsmen in sarong production on PT. Asaputex Jaya, and also used for PT. Asaputex Jaya’s human resources management interests. ELECTRE is based on rankings concept through pair comparison between alternatives on the suitable criteria. While TOPSIS can determine the value of preference for each alternative, the concept is simple and easy to understand. There are 8 criteria in the selection of top craftsmen: design, fabrics assembly, merger with filler material, manufacture of sarong, punctuality, statutes of size, tailoring results, and neatness or stitching cleanliness. Through the TOPSIS method selected 10 top craftsmen: 5th, 14th, 15th, 9th, 3rd, 13th,6th, 20th, 18th, and 10th , which then only one top craftsman will be chosen using the ELECTRE method. This study also produced a GUI Matlab programming application that can help users in performing data processing using TOPSIS and ELCTRE to select the best craftsmen on PT. Asaputex Jaya Keyword: SDM, TOPSIS, ELECTRE, GUI Matlab, top craftsmen
PENERAPAN DIAGRAM KONTROL D^2 MAHALANOBIS PADA PROSES PRODUKSI MINUMAN KEMASAN RETURNABLE GLASS BOTTLE (Studi Kasus di PT. Coca-cola Bottling Indonesia Central Java) Muhammad Abid Muhyidin; Diah Safitri; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (457.47 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v3i3.6482

Abstract

Quality being one of the basic factors in choosing a product consumers. Therefore, an industry or a company should always maintain the quality of their products in order to get loyal customers and are able to survive in the competitive market. Coca-cola Bottling Indonesia Central Java Limited Compay is one of the manufacturing company engaged in the beverage packaging industry and  always trying to improve the quality for customer satisfaction. Although it has been to improve the quality, there are still defective product because it does not meet the quality characteristics. Monitoring the result of production process aims to determine whether the process is stable or not.  Mahalanobis control chartis  one of the control charts that can be used to monitor the production mismatch that is multivariate attributes. By using  Mahalanobis control chart, beverage production process of returnable glass bottle (RGB) in Coca-cola Bottling Indonesia Central Java Limited Compay based on the characteristics of disability shows that the results have not yet stable and controllable. This is  due to  Mahalanobis control chartphase II there are 5 observations of 75 observations or 6.66 % identified uncontrolled observations
Co-Authors - Siswandari Abd. Rahman, Ika Marlina Abdul Djohar Abdul Hoyyi Abraham Yazdi Martin Adisti Permatasari Putri Hartoyo Agung Santoso Agus Rusgiyono Agus Setiawan Agustifa Zea Tazliqoh Agustinus Lolok Alan Prahutama Alan Prahutama Aldila Abid Awali Alfahari Anggoro, Alfahari Allima Stefiana Insani Ambariyani Ambariyani, Ambariyani Anggita Puri Savitri Anggraini Susanti Kusumawardani Ani Mardiantari Ani, Adesi Rizki Indri Anik Djuraidah Anindya Aryu Inayati Annikmah Farida Annisa Nur Fathia Anton Suhartono Anwar, M. Syaiful Apriliani, Afmi Arif Kurnia Wijayanto Aripin, Khairul Asep Yoyo Wardaya Asmuni Hayat Aulia Ikhsan Betha Noranita Bhinekawati, Henny Budi Warsito Bunyamin Chrysmandini Pulung Gumauti, Chrysmandini Pulung Chyntia Arum Widyastusti Danil, Mahmud Daniyati, Dian Dedy Douglas Harianja Devy, Happy Sista Diah Safitri Diah Safitri Dian Daniyati Dian E Idris Gentini Dina Rosmalia Listya Utami Dwi Ispriyanti Ebeit Devita Simatupang Eka Nurzannah Eko Adi Sarwoko Eko Adyan Sukanianto Elvia Ivada Erfan Sofha Esti Zaduqisti Esti Zaduqisti Fajar Heru Setiawan Fajar, Malik FANDI AHMAD Farda Nur Sa'adah Farida, Annikamah Fatima, Suwanto Fikri, Aan Maudlihul Firda Megawati Fitria Aprilia Suherman Fitrian Fariz Ichsandi Fitta Setiajiati Gamal Abdel Nasser Masikki Habib Ismail, Habib Hafii Risalam Hanien Nia H Shega Hasbi Yasin Hasbi Yasin Herliansyah, Muhammad Rudy Ika Sartika Ika Trisnawati A Ikha Rizky Ramadani Ikhwanudin Illahi, Muhammad Jaya Indrayati Galugu Indria Tsani Hazhiah Istiroha Ita Dwilestari Iwannudin Jamilah Jamilah Lies Kurnia Irwanti Lina Karlinasari M. Muslih M. Muslih Husein M.Pd S.T. S.Pd. I Gde Wawan Sudatha . Madani, Hilmi Naufal Maharani Febriana Putri Marthin Nosry Mooy Maruapey, Muhamad Husein Maslachah, Maslachah Mega Susilowati Melati Puspa Nur Fadlilah Moch. Abdul Mukid Moch. Abdul Mukid Mohammad Yahya Mono Pratiko Gustomi Muchammad Aziz Chusen Muhammad Abid Muhyidin Muhammad Andi Septiadi Muhammad Hilman Rizki Abdullah Muhammad Husein Maruapey Muhammad Luthfie Muhammad Rendi Ramdhani Muhammad Yusuf Muhimmi, Aliyatul Mumaiyizah, Mumaiyizah Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mutiara Ardin Rifkiani Nabila, Eva Salsa Nafidhatul Firda Eka Syahfitri Nariswari Diwangkari, Nariswari Niken Anggraini Dewi Noor Fitri Novian Trianggara Novie Eriska Aritonang Nur Alfi Khotamin Nur Alfi Khotamin, Nur Alfi Nurhikmah Megawati Nuril Faiz NURUL QOMARIYAH Nurul Ramadhany Octafinnanda Ummu Fairuzdhiya Onny Kartika Hitasari Oom Komala Pagiling, luther Pratama Ganang Widayaka Pratiko, Mono Puji Retnowati Purnamasari, Irma Rahayu Ningtyas Rahmawati, Rizky Devi Ramdani, Faisal Tri Riana Ikadianti Rifana, Haikal Zaky Rifki Adi Pamungkas, Rifki Adi Rindayati, Rindayati Rini, Etika Risqi, Muhammad Riyan Eko Putri Rizki Taher Dwi Kurniawati Rizqi Izrul Alamsyah Robertus Heri Sulistyo Utomo Roestamy, Martin Ronny Gusnadi Rosyadi, Hanang Rosyidah, Haniatur Rukun Santoso Rumuzi, Moh. Sabella, Shalsa Putri Sabhariyah, Riesmiati Samantha, Kenia Santoso, Haris Sastrawan, Berry Satriawan, Handi Seta Satria Utama Shinta Dewi Rismawati Sirojuddin, Wawan SISWOYO Siti Nur Qomariah St.Nawal Jaya Sudarno Sudarno Sugito - Sugito Sugito Sukanianto, Eko Adyan Sukarelawati Sukarelawati Suparti Suparti Susanti, Mey Syah, Hengky Firman Syahfitri, Nafidhatul Firda Eka Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Tatik Widiharih Thoha, Silvia Milady Azkiya Tri W., Vian Sigit Triana Sofiani Triana Sofiani Trianah Shofiani Triastuti Wuryandari Ula, Fashihatul Ulfah Juniarti Siregar umah, khoiroh Umam, Misbahul Fuadil USWATUN HASANAH Vica Nurani Wati, Eka Masitho Wilis Ardiana Pradana Yuanita Syaiful Yuciana Wilandari Yuciana Wilandari Yulianita . Yunisa Ratna Resti Yunita, Norma Zahroh, Roihatul