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All Journal IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Pythagoras: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Media Statistika Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi Jurnal Agro Ekonomi JAM : Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) JUITA : Jurnal Informatika Indonesian Journal of Biotechnology Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen (JABM) E-Journal Jurnal Manajemen. AL ISHLAH Jurnal Pendidikan International Research Journal of Business Studies (E-Journal) Jurnal Penelitian Pertanian Tanaman Pangan BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Ekonomi Integra JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications JURNAL AGRONIDA Saintifik : Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Pembelajarannya ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Jurnal Manajemen Inferensi Jurnal Agro Ekonomi International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Systems Journal of Data Science and Its Applications Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) JURNAL ILMIAH GLOBAL EDUCATION Xplore: Journal of Statistics STATISTIKA Asian Journal of Social and Humanities Scientific Journal of Informatics Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) International Research Journal of Business Studies Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
I Made Sumertajaya
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Institut Pertanian Bogor Kampus Darmaga, Bogor 16680
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Factors Influencing Informal Workers’ Registration for Social Security: A Comparative Analysis Between Indonesia and Taiwan Rhesa Adisty, Mohamad; Mintarto Mundandar, Jono; Sumertajaya, I Made
Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen Vol. 9 No. 2 (2023): JABM Vol. 9 No. 2, Mei 2023
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jabm.9.2.523

Abstract

Social security should be mandatory for all members of society to protect them from social risks, including the informal workers who are particularly vulnerable to such risks. However, the coverage of social security for informal workers in Indonesia remains very low. Therefore, the study aims to identify the factors that drive informal workers' desire to enroll in social security programs. The Theory of Planned Behavior will be utilized as a tool to uncover these factors. The study will compare the findings with the policies implemented in Indonesia and Taiwan as a comparison for countries with extensive social security coverage. The research sample is determined by using purposive sampling method with 100 respondents participated in this study. Data are examined by using structural equation model - partial least square (SEM-PLS). The results show that Attitude Toward Behavior and Perceived Behavioral Control have a significant impact on the intention of informal workers to join social security programs, while subjective norms have not been proven to have a significant impact. In conclusion, Indonesia needs to review its current policies, which primarily focus on subjective norms, and learn from Taiwan's successful implementation of broad social security coverage. Transforming informal labor into formal employment can be an effective strategy for achieving this goal. Keywords: social security, informal worker, sem-pls, theory of planned behavior
Factors Influencing Voter Decision in the 2024 Bogor Mayoral Election: The Mediating Role of Emotional Feelings Aini, Febri Nur; Munanda, Jono Mintarto; Sumertajaya, I Made
Asian Journal of Social and Humanities Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Asian Journal of Social and Humanities
Publisher : Pelopor Publikasi Akademika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59888/wb5d0657

Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of the political marketing mix consisting of Political Product, Political Price, Distribution, Mass Media, Reference Groups, Issues, Policies, and Leadership on Emotional Feelings and Voting Decisions in the 2024 Bogor mayoral election. A quantitative approach using Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed with 430 respondents across six districts in Bogor City. The results indicate that Political Product, Distribution, Reference Groups, Political Issues (negative direction), Policies, and Leadership significantly affect Emotional Feelings, whereas Political Price and Mass Media do not. In terms of direct effects on Voting Decisions, Reference Groups, Political Issues, Policies, and Leadership show significant relationships, while other variables do not. Emotional Feelings significantly predict Voting Decisions. Indirect effect analysis reveals that Emotional Feelings mediate the influence of Political Product, Distribution, Policies, and Leadership (marginally significant), while Political Issues exhibit a significant negative mediation effect. Overall, the model demonstrates moderate predictive power, highlighting the central role of emotional factors in shaping voter behavior at the local level. These findings imply that political strategies emphasizing emotional engagement, policy credibility, and leadership quality are more effective in influencing electoral decisions
Comparison of ARIMA, LSTM, and Ensemble Averaging Models for Short-Term and Long- Term Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series Data Pratiwi, Windy Ayu; Sumertajaya, I Made; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar
Inferensi Vol 8, No 3 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v8i3.22643

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the highest weekly selling rate of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) against the US Dollar (USD) and identify the most accurate model among ARIMA, LSTM, and Ensemble Averaging. The evaluation results indicate that ARIMA achieves an accuracy of 97.75%, demonstrating strong performance in short-term forecasting, while LSTM achieves 99.98% accuracy, excelling in capturing complex and dynamic patterns in long-term predictions. The Ensemble Averaging approach attains the highest accuracy of 99.99%, proving to be the optimal solution by combining ARIMA’s stability with LSTM’s adaptability, resulting in more precise and stable predictions. The findings of this study highlight that the ensemble approach is more effective than individual models, as it balances accuracy and prediction stability across various forecasting scenarios. This method serves as a reliable tool for addressing market volatility and contributes significantly to the advancement of financial and economic forecasting techniques that are more adaptive and accurate.
Support vector machine performance: simulation and rice phenology application Muradi, Hengki; Saefuddin, Asep; Sumertajaya, I Made; Soleh, Agus Mohamad; Domiri, Dede Dirgahayu
IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) Vol 14, No 6: December 2025
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijai.v14.i6.pp4878-4890

Abstract

In the case of classification, model accuracy is expected to result in correct predictions. This study aims to analyze the performance of two kinds of support vector machine (SVM) methods: the support vector machine one versus one (SVM OvO) method and the generalized multiclass support vector machine (GenSVM) method. This method will compare to the generalized linear model, namely the multinomial logistic regression (MLR) method. Simulations were conducted using SVM OvO and GenSVM methods to get an overview of the parameters affecting both methods' performance. Furthermore, the three classification methods are implemented in the case of modelling the rice phenology and tested for performance. Simulation results show that, however, the SVM OvO and GenSVM machine learning methods are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. The empirical study results show that the SVM OvO and GenSVM methods can produce satisfactory model accuracy and are comparable to the MLR method. The best rice phenology model accuracy was obtained from the SVM OvO model, where 79.20 ± 0.21 overall accuracy and 70.69 ± 0.29 kappa were obtained. This research can be continued by handling samples, especially when class members are a minority, and can also add random effects to the SVM model.
Dampak Gig Economy terhadap Kinerja Sosial dan Lingkungan pada Sektor Transportasi Daring: Perbandingan Perspektif Perusahaan Platform dan Mitra Driver Yoga, Ibnu Abi; Maarif, Mohamad Syamsul; I Made Sumertajaya
Jurnal Ilmiah Global Education Vol. 6 No. 4 (2025): JURNAL ILMIAH GLOBAL EDUCATION
Publisher : LPPM Institut Pendidikan Nusantara Global

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55681/jige.v6i4.4527

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of the gig economy on social and environmental performance in the online transportation platform sector in the Greater Jakarta area by comparing the perspectives of platform companies and gig workers (driver partners). This study uses a case study design with a mixed method combining Likert scale questionnaires and in-depth interviews. The respondents consist of 183 platform company employees and 101 driver partners from various online transportation companies. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistical approaches and Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM–PLS). The results indicate that the gig economy significantly impacts social and environmental performance from both perspectives, though with differing levels of perception. Driver partners tend to experience stronger positive impacts regarding work flexibility, income opportunities, and involvement in environmental efforts, yet they still face challenges such as income instability, limited job protection, and unequal access to social programs. Platform companies acknowledge the gig economy's contribution to social and environmental aspects, though with a more moderate assessment. These findings underscore the importance of integrating social and environmental dimensions into core business strategies, as well as the need to incorporate driver partners' input to strengthen the sustainability and inclusivity of the gig economy ecosystem in the future.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF BCBIMAX AND PLAID BICLUSTERING ALGORITHM FOR PATTERN RECOGNITION IN INDONESIA FOOD SECURITY Sumertajaya, I Made; Hikmah, Nur; Afendi, Farit Mochamad
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss1pp0335-0346

Abstract

Biclustering is an unsupervised learning algorithm that simultaneously groups rows and columns in a data matrix. Unlike conventional clustering, which evaluates objects across all variables independently, biclustering identifies subsets of objects and variables that share similar patterns—revealing localized structures within complex datasets. This study applies the BCBimax and Plaid algorithms to examine food security patterns across 34 Indonesian provinces. The indicators cover three key dimensions: availability, accessibility, and utilization of food. The algorithms are evaluated using the Jaccard Index, Mean Squared Residue (MSR), and the number of provinces effectively clustered. Results show that BCBimax, using a binarization threshold based on the median value, generates eight biclusters covering 58.8% of provinces. Meanwhile, the Plaid algorithm, applying constant column model parameters, produces six biclusters with 55.88% coverage, including overlapping memberships. Overall, BCBimax demonstrates superior performance, as indicated by a lower average MSR value (0.035) compared to Plaid (0.209). The Jaccard Index similarity score of 14.61% suggests that the biclusters formed by each method are significantly distinct. Both approaches indicate that the majority of Indonesian regions exhibit low to moderate food security characteristics.
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SEASONAL ARIMA-SVR AND SEASONAL ARIMAX-SVR HYBRID METHODS ON FORECASTING PADDY PRODUCTION Risnawati, I'lmisukma; Afendi, Farit Mochamad; Sumertajaya, I Made
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss1pp0367-0380

Abstract

This study explores advances in forecasting time series data by combining linear and non-linear models. Traditional methods such as ARIMA and its variant ARIMAX are effective for linear data but have limitations when dealing with non-linearity. Support Vector Regression (SVR), a non-linear method, complements these weaknesses. Hybrid models such as ARIMA-SVR and ARIMAX-SVR synergize ARIMA or ARIMAX for linear components and SVR for non-linear components, improving accuracy. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of hybrid ARIMA-SVR and ARIMAX-SVR methods on Indonesian paddy production data. The data analyzed is national-level data per sub-round (i.e., three sub-rounds per year) from sub-round 1 (January-April) of 1992 to sub-round 3 (September-December) of 2024, obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency and the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture.Forecasting accuracy is measured using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the best model is the Seasonal ARIMAX (1,1,1)(0,1,1)[3]-SVR ( 0.05) hybrid model, with the smallest RMSE and MAPE values of 0.304 and 1.473%. The addition of the harvested area variable and the ASF dummy improved the accuracy of the ARIMAX model prediction, while the application of SVR to ARIMAX residuals successfully captured previously undetected linear patterns. Based on these considerations, the Seasonal ARIMAX(1,1,1)(0,1,1)[3]-SVR ( 0.05) hybrid model was selected as the model with the best performance.
Spatiotemporal Clustering of Key Food Commodity Prices Using Multivariate Time Series Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya; Angraini, Yenni; Sumertajaya, I Made
International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Systems Vol. 6 No. 3 (2025): December 2025 - International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Syste
Publisher : Indonesian Scientific Journal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59395/ijadis.v6i3.1422

Abstract

Food price stabilization remains a critical challenge in economic development planning and food security, particularly in developing countries like Indonesia, which exhibit high spatial and temporal diversity. To develop an efficient and adaptive predictive approach for understanding food commodity price dynamics, this study integrates multivariate time series clustering using a Dynamic Time Warping-based K-Means algorithm with a hybrid forecasting model that combines Vector Error Correction Model with Exogenous Variables and Long Short-Term Memory. The clustering evaluation results indicate reasonably cohesive group structures, with a silhouette score of 0.45 and a Davies-Bouldin Index of 0.67. Each cluster profile reveals significant differences in price trends, volatility, and anomaly patterns. Model validation using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test shows that the differences between cluster-level forecasts and individual-level actual values are generally statistically insignificant. These findings suggest that the proposed integrative approach can accurately capture regional price patterns and serve as a foundation for more data-driven and responsive policymaking in food price stabilization efforts. The 30-period forecasts for rice, eggs, and red onions reflected dynamic variations aligned with spatial characteristics: rice shows relatively stable behavior, eggs exhibit strong seasonal patterns, and red onions display the highest price volatility.
Co-Authors A Kurnia A. A. Mattjik AA Mattjik Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Abdu Alifah Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Ade Gusalinda Adelia Putri Pangestika Agus Mohamad Soleh Agustin Faradila Ahmad Anshori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Matjjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aidi, Muhammad N Aini, Febri Nur Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Alfian Futuhul Hadi Alwani, Nadira Nisa Amanda Permata Dewi Anang Kurnia Andi Setiawan Andrew Donda Munthe Anggraini Sukmawati Anik Djuraidah Arina, Faula Aropah, Vina Da'watul Aropah, Vina Da’watul ASEP SAEFUDDIN Astari, Reka Agustia Azagi, Ilham Alifa Azis, Irfani Bagus Sartono Budi Susetyo Budi Susetyo Choirun Nisa Chrisinta, Debora Cici Suhaeni Cynthia Wulandari Dede Dirgahayu Domiri Dede Dirgahayu Domiri, Dede Dirgahayu Dian Kusumaningrum Dian Kusumaningrum Diki Akhwan Mulya Doni Suhartono Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Yulianti Embay Rohaeti Emeylia Safitri Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani, Erfiani Erwina Erwina Evita Choiriyah Fadilah, Anggita Rizky FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Fahriya, Andina Faqih Udin dan Jono M. Munandar Meivita Amelia Farit M Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fitria Hasanah Fitrianto, Anwar Gusti Tasya Meilania Halimatus Sa'diyah Hari Wijayanto Haryastuti, Rizqi Hengki Muradi Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hilda Zaikarina Huda, Usep Firdaus I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Ilma Nabila Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Imam Adiyana Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Iqbal, Teuku Achmad Irfani Azis Irfani Azis Ismah, Ismah Isti Rochayati Itasia Dina Sulvianti Jamaluddin Rabbani Harahap Jasiulewicz, Anna Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Kurnia, A Kusdaniyama, Nunung Kusman Sadik Laradea Marifni Lestari P, Merryanty Linda Sakinah M. Syamsul Maarif Ma'mun Sarma Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Mattjik, AA Maulida, Annisaturrahmah Mega Pradita Pangestika Meilania, Gusti Tasya Merryanty Lestari P Mintarto Mundandar, Jono Muhamad Nur Aidi Muhammad Amirullah Yusuf Albasia Muhammad N Aidi Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Ulinnuha Mulianto Raharjo Munanda, Jono Mintarto Muradi, Hengki Newton Newton Nina Valentika Ningsih, Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Noercahyo, Unggul Sentanu Novi Hidayat Pusponegoro Nunung Kusdaniyama Nunung Kusdaniyama Nur Hikmah Nurlia Eka Damayanti Nurus Sabani Pasaribu, Sahat M. Pepi Novianti Pika Silvianti Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Pudji Muljono Purwaningsih, Siti Samsiyah Puspasari, Novia Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rhesa Adisty, Mohamad Risnawati, I'lmisukma Rizqi Haryastuti Sahat M. Pasaribu Sarah Fadhlia Sarma, Ma’mun Satria Yudha Herawan SATRIYAS ILYAS Setyono Setyono Setyono Sirait, Manuel Leonard Siti Samsiyah Purwaningsih Sri Surjani Tjahjawati Sunardi Sunardi Sunardi Suruddin, Adzkar Adlu Hasyr Sutomo, Valantino A Syafitri, Utami Syella Sumampouw Tsabitah, Dhiya Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Ulfah Sulistyowati Utami Dyah Syafitri Valantino A Sutomo Valentika, Nina Wibowo, Dwi Yoga Ari Winda Nurpadilah Windi D.Y Putri Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yenni Angraini Yoga, Ibnu Abi Zulkarnain, Rizky