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Dimensionality Reduction Evaluation of Multivariate Time Series of Consumer Price Index in Indonesia Valentika, Nina; Sumertajaya, I Made; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Afendi, Farit Mochamad
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i1.34151

Abstract

Multivariate time series (MTS) analysis of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Indonesia often encounters challenges such as outliers, missing data, and inter-variable correlations. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a practical approach for dimensionality reduction; however, its performance may vary depending on the data characteristics. This study is a quantitative comparative study that integrates empirical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation based on a first-order Vector Autoregressive (VAR(1)) model to evaluate three PCA approaches: Classical PCA, Robust PCA (RPCA), and PCA of MTS. These methods were applied to weekly price data of eight strategic food commodities across 70 districts and cities in Indonesia. The evaluation employed three criteria: (1) dimensionality reduction efficiency (empirical and simulation), (2) reconstruction accuracy measured using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (empirical), and (3) robustness to outliers and inter-variable correlations (simulation). Empirical results indicate that Classical PCA (lag 1) and RPCA (lag 1) are both efficient and effective in reducing dimensionality with minimal information loss. Using the first three principal components, all three methods were able to explain at least 85% of the total variance, with lag 1 identified as optimal. Simulation results reveal that RPCA (lag 1) provides the most stable and consistent performance in the presence of outliers, while Classical PCA (lag 2) performs better under conditions of high inter-variable correlation and a low proportion of outliers. These findings suggest that robust covariance estimation can improve the accuracy of dimensionality reduction and enhance the stability of multivariate time-series analysis for food price data in Indonesia.
Co-Authors A Kurnia A. A. Mattjik AA Mattjik Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Abdu Alifah Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Ade Gusalinda Adelia Putri Pangestika Agus Mohamad Soleh Agustin Faradila Ahmad Anshori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Matjjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aidi, Muhammad N Aini, Febri Nur Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Alfian Futuhul Hadi Alwani, Nadira Nisa Amanda Permata Dewi Anang Kurnia Andi Setiawan Andrew Donda Munthe Anggraini Sukmawati Anik Djuraidah Arina, Faula Aropah, Vina Da'watul Aropah, Vina Da’watul ASEP SAEFUDDIN Astari, Reka Agustia Azagi, Ilham Alifa Azis, Irfani Bagus Sartono Budi Susetyo Choirun Nisa Chrisinta, Debora Cici Suhaeni Cynthia Wulandari Dede Dirgahayu Domiri Dede Dirgahayu Domiri, Dede Dirgahayu Dian Kusumaningrum Dian Kusumaningrum Diki Akhwan Mulya Doni Suhartono Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Yulianti Embay Rohaeti Emeylia Safitri Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani, Erfiani Erwina Erwina Evita Choiriyah Fadilah, Anggita Rizky FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Fahriya, Andina Faqih Udin dan Jono M. Munandar Meivita Amelia Farit M Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fitria Hasanah Fitrianto, Anwar Gusti Tasya Meilania Halimatus Sa'diyah Hari Wijayanto Haryastuti, Rizqi Hengki Muradi Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hilda Zaikarina Huda, Usep Firdaus Humairoh, Andi Zahira Al I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Ilma Nabila Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Imam Adiyana Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Iqbal, Teuku Achmad Irfani Azis Irfani Azis Ismah, Ismah Isti Rochayati Itasia Dina Sulvianti Jamaluddin Rabbani Harahap Jasiulewicz, Anna Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Kurnia, A Kusdaniyama, Nunung Kusman Sadik Laradea Marifni Lestari P, Merryanty Linda Sakinah M. Syamsul Maarif Ma'mun Sarma Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Mattjik, AA Maulida, Annisaturrahmah Mega Pradita Pangestika Meilania, Gusti Tasya Merryanty Lestari P Mintarto Mundandar, Jono Muhamad Nur Aidi Muhammad Amirullah Yusuf Albasia Muhammad N Aidi Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Ulinnuha Mulianto Raharjo Munanda, Jono Mintarto Muradi, Hengki Newton Newton Nina Valentika Ningsih, Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Noercahyo, Unggul Sentanu Novi Hidayat Pusponegoro Nunung Kusdaniyama Nunung Kusdaniyama Nur Hikmah Nurlia Eka Damayanti Nurus Sabani Pasaribu, Sahat M. Pepi Novianti Pika Silvianti Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Pudji Muljono Purwaningsih, Siti Samsiyah Puspasari, Novia Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rhesa Adisty, Mohamad Risnawati, I'lmisukma Rizqi Haryastuti Sahat M. Pasaribu Sarah Fadhlia Sarma, Ma’mun Satria Yudha Herawan SATRIYAS ILYAS Setyono Setyono Setyono Sirait, Manuel Leonard Siti Samsiyah Purwaningsih Sri Surjani Tjahjawati Sunardi Sunardi Sunardi Suruddin, Adzkar Adlu Hasyr Sutomo, Valantino A Syafitri, Utami Syella Sumampouw Tsabitah, Dhiya Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Ulfah Sulistyowati Utami Dyah Syafitri Valantino A Sutomo Valentika, Nina Wibowo, Dwi Yoga Ari Winda Nurpadilah Windi D.Y Putri Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yenni Angraini Yoga, Ibnu Abi Zulkarnain, Rizky