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All Journal Torani Journal of Fisheries and Marine Science LaGeografiA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (Indonesian Journal of Community Engagement) Journal of Geoscience, Engineering, Environment, and Technology JURNAL GALUNG TROPIKA Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) Jurnal Ilmiah Ecosystem Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal Jurnal Ilmiah Manusia dan Kesehatan J-SEA (Journal Socio Economic Agricultural) Sinergitas Multidisiplin Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Teknologi (SMIPT) Jurnal Ilmiah Agribios Jurnal Dedikasi International Journal of Health, Economics, and Social Sciences (IJHESS) Agrimansion: Agribusiness Management & Extension Unram Journal of Community Service (UJCS) Jurnal Pajak dan Bisnis (Journal of Tax and Business) Civil Officium: Journal of Empirical Studies on Social Science Jurnal Agribis Agribusiness Journal Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Review of Accounting and Taxation National Multidisciplinary Sciences Jurnal Dedikasi Masyarakat Integrated and Sustainable Agriculture Jurnal Gallus Gallus Jurnal Agricultural Science Agricultural Power Journal
Nurhapsa
Program Studi Agribisnis Fakultas Pertanian, Peternakan, Dan Perikanan Universitas Muhammadiyah Parepare
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Nursing Physics Public Health Social Sciences Veterinary Other

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Journal : Agricultural Power Journal

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Climate Change Spillover Effects on Agricultural Economics: Correlating Rainfall Anomalies (ENSO) and Farmer's Terms of Trade in Indonesia Leni Sabrina; Nurhapsa Nurhapsa; Elly Jumiati
Agriculture Journal Vol 3 No 1 (2026): February, 2026
Publisher : CV. HEI PUBLISHING INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70076/apj.v3i1.152

Abstract

This study investigates the profound socioeconomic implications of precipitation variability on agricultural stability, specifically focusing on how ENSO-induced rainfall anomalies trigger economic spillover effects within the Indonesian agrarian sector. Addressing the critical intersection of climatology and macroeconomics, the research aims to quantify the correlation between meteorological shocks and the Farmer's Terms of Trade (FTT). Utilizing official secondary datasets from the Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) and Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for the period 2021–2024, the study employs a quantitative approach integrating Pearson correlation analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results demonstrate a significant positive correlation (r = .658 ; p = .003) between rainfall stability and farmer welfare, revealing a severe "price-squeeze" effect during the 2023 El Niño where escalating production costs outpaced commodity gate prices. Furthermore, the findings highlight that technical irrigation infrastructure acts as a vital moderator, significantly dampening economic volatility in resilient provinces like South Sulawesi compared to rain-fed regions. We conclude that climate-driven economic erosion necessitates a transition toward proactive policy frameworks, such as Weather Index-Based Insurance (WIBI), to safeguard rural purchasing power. This research advances scientific knowledge by empirically decoupling the physical impacts of climate change from its structural economic consequences in tropical agriculture.
Co-Authors A Amir Abd. Rahim Abdul Azis Ambar Ahmad Dzacky Maarief Ahmad Fahmi Ahmad Suardi, Ahmad ainun muthmainnah Akhmad, Akhmad alfira, alfira Ali Djamhuri Ambar, Abdul Asiz Amin, Muhtar Amran, Farizah D. Andi Adam Malik Andi Nuddin Andi Nuddin Andi Siti Halimah Arman Arman Arman Arman Arya Arya Ashar, Nurul Magfirah Asmi Citra Malina, Asmi Citra Bakri, Muhammad Yusuf Dian Putri, Dian Edi Kurniawan Edy Ardyansyah Edy Kurniawan, Edy Elly Jumiati Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadliah L, Andi Nur Farhana, Sy.Fathya Farozi, Ridwan Fatmawati Fatmawati Fitriani Fitriani Fitriani Umar Hajar Hastang, Hastang Ida Ayu Putu Sri Widnyani Indah, Khofifah Indra Kusdarianto, Indra Iqbal Burhanuddin, Iqbal Iradhatullah Rahim Irmayani Irmayani Irmayani Irmayani Irninthya Nanda Pratami Irwan Irwansyah Irwansyah Israh Israh Izzah, A. Nurul J Jaya JUNAEDI Kadir, Muhammad Jurhadi Kahar, Jamil Hasyim Kamba, Ilham Kasmawati Kasmawati Kasmin, Muh. Obi Leni Sabrina Lismayanti Lismayanti Muhammad Kusnady Tabsir Mukhlis Mukhlis Mukhlis Mustafah, A. Erna Sri Wahyuningsih Mustofa, Muhamad Apep N Nurliyah Nasrullah A Nurhaeda Nurhaeda Nurhaedah Nurhaedah Nurhaedah Nurhaedah Nurliani Nurwijayanti Palinggi, Andi Fadel Paramita, Cici Patahuddin Purwoko, Agus Rahmadani A, Sofia Rahmat Fardi Asli Rahmawati Rahmawati Semaun Rahmawati, Rahmawati Rasbawati, Rasbawati Rasyid, Ilham Rasyid, Rasmeidah Resky Mayasari Rosada, Ida Rufi'i Ruskiah Katang Rusydi Rusydi SAHABUDDIN SAHABUDDIN Salmia Salmia Salsabila, Unik Hanifah Saputra, Muhammad Rizaldi Sirajuddin, Siti Nurani Sitti Nurani Sirajuddin Solly Aryza Sriwahyuningsih, A. Erna St. Rohani, St. Rohani Suherman Suherman, Suherman Suherman, Suherman sukmawati Suparman Suparman Syamsiar Zamzam Syamsu, Nirwada Syarif, Ilham Syawal Usman Usman Utama, A. Della Riski Wahyuningsih, Andi Erna Sri Wisdayanti Yunianti Yusrianti Yusrianti Z Zulkifli