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All Journal ESENSI: JURNAL BISNIS DAN MANAJEMEN AKUNTABILITAS Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi ETIKONOMI Sosiohumaniora Jurnal Indo-Islamika Al-Iqtishad : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah (Journal of Islamic Economics) INFERENSI IQTISHADIA Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business I-Finance Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Falah : Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah HUMAN FALAH: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam Proceeding of the Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics jurnal niara Economica: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance (IJIEF) Al-Muzara'ah Syarikat : Jurnal Rumpun Ekonomi Syariah Jurnal Bisnis dan Akuntansi EconBank : Journal Economics and Banking Al-Risalah : Jurnal Studi Agama dan Pemikiran Islam International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR) RESLAJ: RELIGION EDUCATION SOCIAL LAA ROIBA JOURNAL BASKARA: Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship Jurnal Syntax Transformation Iqtishadia: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam International Journal of Finance Research Journal of Sharia Economics Madani Syari'ah : Jurnal Pemikiran Perbankan Syari'ah RELEVAN : Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti Journal of Applied Islamic Economics and Finance RESLAJ: Religion Education Social Laa Roiba Journal Al-Muhasib: Journal of Islamic Accounting and Finance Tijarah Jurnal Multidisiplin Indonesia IQTISHADUNA: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Kita Al-Risalah Jurnal Studi Agama dan Pemikiran Islam Ar Rasyiid Journal of Islamic Studies
Ahmad Rodoni
UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Other

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Predicting Shariah Stock Market Indices with Machine Learning: A Cross-Country Case Study Khairunnisa, Dini Anggreini; Rodoni, Ahmad; Rama, Ali
Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan Vol. 11 No. 1 (2024): Februari-2024
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/vol11iss20241pp86-104

Abstract

ABSTRACT Stock prices are influenced by numerous factors, including policy adjustments, economic conditions, and international developments. Consequently, forecasting stock price trends accurately has posed a significant challenge for economists to study. The Islamic financial industry experiences fewer shocks compared to the traditional financial sector, allowing investors to anticipate the performance of Islamic indices. This study aims to predict the Islamic stock market indices in six countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Monthly data from 2013 to 2023 sourced from investing.com and Yahoo Finance are analyzed using R machine learning. The objective of this study is to provide accurate predictions for the next 25 months and offer insights into potential price movements. Overall, this research also sheds light on the dynamics of the Islamic market in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, which adhere to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) due to the predictability of index prices by historical data. Keywords: forecating, R-Studio, ARIMA, Islamic Stock Market, Machine Learning, R-Programming   ABSTRAK Harga saham dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor, termasuk penyesuaian kebijakan, kondisi ekonomi, dan perkembangan internasional. Oleh karena itu, memprediksi tren harga saham dengan akurat telah menjadi tantangan signifikan bagi para ekonom untuk mempelajarinya. Industri keuangan Islam mengalami lebih sedikit goncangan dibandingkan dengan sektor keuangan tradisional, yang memungkinkan investor untuk memperkirakan kinerja indeks Islam. Studi ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi indeks pasar saham Islam di enam negara, termasuk Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Pakistan, Uni Emirat Arab, dan Qatar, menggunakan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Data bulanan dari tahun 2013 hingga 2023 yang berasal dari investing.com dan Yahoo Finance dianalisis menggunakan pembelajaran mesin R. Tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk memberikan prediksi yang akurat untuk 25 bulan mendatang dan menawarkan wawasan tentang pergerakan harga yang potensial. Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini juga memberikan cahaya tentang dinamika pasar Islam di Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Pakistan, Uni Emirat Arab, dan Qatar, yang mengikuti Hipotesis Pasar Efisien (EMH) karena dapat diprediksi oleh data historis.. Kata Kunci: Prediksi, R-Studio, ARIMA, Indeks Pasar Modal Syariah, Machine Learning, R-Programming
Risk and Return: Bonds and Sukuk in Indonesia Rodoni, Ahmad; Setiawan, Aris
Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah Vol. 8 No. 2 (2016)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS ISLAM NEGERI SYARIF HIDAYATULLAH JAKARTA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i2.3159

Abstract

The aim of this research is to compare the degree of risk and return of bonds with sukuk, using several calculations magnitudes, which are, yield to maturity (YTM), Macaulay's duration, and Value at Risk (VaR). The results of this study show that there is no significant difference between the YTM bonds and the YTM of emitted sukuk. Using the Macaulay’s duration formula to evaluate the duration of bonds and sukuk, the research found out that there is no significant difference in the duration of bonds and sukuk. However, the calculation and comparison of the VaR, showed a significant differences between bonds and sukuk , likewise either the comparison of the VaR of a sample group of bonds with a sample group of sukuk using k sample test. But by testing each group of the VaR of bonds sample group and sukuk sample group,the results show no significant differences.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i2.3159
Comparing Efficiency and Productivity in Islamic Banking : Case Study Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan Rodoni, Ahmad; Salim, M. Arskal; Amalia, Euis; Rakhmadi, Rezki Syahri
Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah Vol. 9 No. 2 (2017)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS ISLAM NEGERI SYARIF HIDAYATULLAH JAKARTA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.5153

Abstract

The objective of this research is to analyze both efficiency and productivity of  Islamic Banking Industry in Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. The technique that used in this research is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as for measuring efficiency and thus Malmquist Index (MI) as for measuring productivity. The result of this research found that Islamic Banking Industry in Indonesia is facing inefficiency that shown by five years average that is not reach 100% efficiency rate. Malaysia also experiences the problem of inefficiency but the condition is better compared to Indonesia. In five years, the efficiency rate of Malaysia Islamic Bank has not reach 100% efficiency rate. Pakistan among the closest country that could reach an efficient rate level for their Islamic banks. Pakistan close to reach 100% efficient rate within the last five years. DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.5153
Asymmetric Information and Non-Performing Financing: Study in The Indonesian Islamic Banking Industry Rodoni, Ahmad; Yaman, Bahrul
Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah Vol. 10 No. 2 (2018)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS ISLAM NEGERI SYARIF HIDAYATULLAH JAKARTA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v10i2.7392

Abstract

The purposes of this study are: First, to analyze the indications of moral hazard and adverse selection on Indonesian Islamic commercial banks. Second, to analyze the influence of moral hazard and adverse selection on the Non Performance Financing of Indonesian Islamic banks. Two methods were used for this purpose, a qualitative content analysis approach derived from the results of interviews with the banker from the Islamic commercial banks. Besides that this study also uses Error Correction Model (ECM), with data taken from these listed Islamic banking from 2010 to June 2016. The results show that the indications of moral hazard have a positive effect on the non-performing financing (NPF) in the short run. The indication of the presence of moral hazard occurs at the long run on GDP variable, and the allocation of Murabaha financing (RM) has a positive effect on the mudharabah (FM) profit and loss sharing. The test results also show that adverse selection that represented by the profit sharing rate (PSR) has a positive effect on the level of risk sharing toward non-performing financing (NPF) in the long run.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v10i2.7392
Comparative Analysis of Efficient Market for Sharia and Conventional Stocks in ASEAN countries Rodoni, Ahmad; Djauhari, Haikal; Rahma, Yusro; Alhassan, Alhussaini Alawad
Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah Vol. 14 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS ISLAM NEGERI SYARIF HIDAYATULLAH JAKARTA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v14i1.25025

Abstract

This study analyzes and compares the weak forms of Islamic and conventional stock market efficiency in ASEAN countries. The data were taken from BEI Syariah (JKISSI), Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE), FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Syariah (FTFBMS), FTSE Malaysia KLCI (KLSE), SET Index (SETI), and FTSE SET Syariah (FTFSTSH) from January 2015 to August 2021. To avoid analytical bias due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, the data is divided into two periods, January 2015 to December 2019 and January 2020 to August 2021. The contribution of this research is to compare the market efficiency of the weak form of Islamic and conventional stocks over two periods with different methods, namely Variance Ratio Test, Run Test, ARIMA Model, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). This study shows that Islamic stocks in these countries are more efficient from January 2015 to December 2019. On the other hand, conventional stocks are more efficient from January 2020 to August 2021 (during the COVID-19 Pandemic).  Abstrak Penelitian ini menganalisa dan membandingkan bentuk lemah dari efisiensi pasar saham syariah dan konvensional di negara-negara ASEAN. Data berasal dari BEI Syariah (JKISSI), Bursa Efek Jakarta (JKSE), FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Syariah (FTFBMS), FTSE Malaysia KLCI (KLSE), SET Index (SETI), dan FTSE SET Syariah (FTFSTSH) dari Januari 2015 hingga Agustus 2021. Untuk menghindari bias analisa akibat pandemi COVID-19, data dibagi menjadi dua periode, Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2019 dan Januari 2020 hingga Agustus 2021. Penelitian ini membandingkan bentuk lemah dari efisiensi pasar saham syariah dan konvensional selama dua periode waktu dengan metode berbeda, yaitu Variance Ratio Test, Run Test, Model ARIMA, dan Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Studi menunjukkan bahwa Saham Syariah di negara-negara tersebut lebih efisien pada periode Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2019. Di sisi lain, saham konvensional lebih efisien pada periode Januari 2020 hingga Agustus 2021 (selama pandemi COVID-19). 
The Influence of Potential Loss Portfolio Ratio and PBH Investment Ratio on Bus ROA in Indonesia 2015 - 2022 Nuriasari, Selvia; Rodoni, Ahmad; Pratiwi, Leni Nur
Al-Muhasib: Journal of Islamic Accounting and Finance Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Department of Islamic Accounting, The Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic Institute of Kediri [IAIN Kediri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30762/almuhasib.v3i2.1099

Abstract

The ratio of the portfolio of potential losses in profit-sharing financing to the mudharabah and musyarakah investment portfolio and the ratio of investment in profit-sharing financing to total financing is used to measure the results of Sharia bank investments in profit-sharing-based financing. It is known that from 2015 to 2022 the development of assets and disbursed financing (PYD) tends to decrease and in the following year increases, resulting in fluctuations in the two investment ratios. The fluctuation of two investment ratios is an interesting problem to research. This research is a quantitative descriptive study using PASW 18 which describes the results using figures with secondary data sources including the OJK Sharia Banking Statistics Report for 2015 - 2022 and the Monthly Financial Report of Sharia Banks. The research conclusion is that the investment ratio from 2015 to 2022 experienced fluctuations due to the decline in mudharabah financing and musyarakah financing at Sharia Banks.
Transforming Mosque Sustainability: Leveraging Islamic Economics and Finance for Community Empowerment Hidayat, Rahmat; Rodoni, Ahmad; Sukardi, Budi; Fachrurazi; Asmanto, Eko; Ismail, Nurizal
Economica: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam UIN Walisongo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/economica.2025.16.2.28314

Abstract

This research focuses on the shift in mosque empowerment models, particularly in terms of financial sustainability, rooted in Islamic economics and finance. By exploring the correlation of Islamic economics (Y), Islamic finance (Y), and mosque sustainability (Z), this research can utilize the mixed method approach of quantitative analysis to survey 200 congregation members, conduct in-depth interviews with five key informants, and employ PLS-SEM. This is the first mosque sustainability performance study to provide a quantitative analysis, along with PLS-SEM, and to correlate finance and economics in the Islamic context. Findings indicate that Islamic finance intermediates the influence of Islamic economics on mosque sustainability (indirect β=0.527; p<0.001). Islamic economics is explained to have a considerable direct influence on Islamic finance (β=0.782; p<0.001) as well as Islamic finance being the greatest contributor to mosque sustainability (β=0.673; p<0.001). This research affirms the four-dimensional sustainability pillar and the anticipation of mosque management to respond to the SDGs. This provided strong financial governance, partnership with Islamic banking, trained financial governance, and Islamic financial literacy courses.
MEMBANDINGKAN SUMBER VOLATILITAS PASAR SAHAM KONVENSIONAL DAN PASAR SAHAM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA Permana, Fikri C; Rodoni, Ahmad
Relevan : Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025): November
Publisher : FEB-UP Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35814/gncp3e62

Abstract

This study investigates the sources of volatility affecting the performance of Indonesia’s stock market, focusing on both the conventional Jakarta Composite Index (JKSE) and the Sharia-based Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The analysis considers three groups of potential determinants: (a) global macroeconomic factors, proxied by Brent crude oil prices (BRENT) and gold prices (GOLD); (b) international financial market linkages, represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA); and (c) Indonesia’s domestic fundamentals, proxied by the Rupiah–U.S. dollar exchange rate (USDIDR) and 10-year government bond yields (INDO10). Employing stochastic econometric approaches, including a multibreak structural model and volatility models (ARCH/GARCH), this study utilizes daily data spanning from January 2, 2019, to May 31, 2022. The findings reveal that structural breaks are more frequent in the JKSE than in the JII. Moreover, the persistence of structural breaks in both indices following the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic indicates that the crisis effects remained unresolved throughout the observation period. Furthermore, domestic fundamentals (USDIDR and INDO10) exert the strongest influence on volatility in both indices, while the significant impact of BRENT and DJIA during certain break periods underscores the importance of global market dynamics.
Co-Authors Abdurrohman Akbar, Firman Muhammad Ade Sofyan Mulazid Afi Parnawi Ahmad Afif Aini Masruroh, Aini Aisyah Raisa Medina Al-Arif, Mohammad Nur Rianto Alhassan, Alhussaini Alawad Alhussaini Alawad Alhassan Ali Rama ALI RAMA Amilin Amilin Amri Amir Angga Aditya Permana Arief, Zaenal Aris Setiawan Aris Setiawan Ashal, Farid Fathony Bahrul Yaman Bambang Sutrisno Benny Ramadhan Budi Sukardi Chajar Matari Fath Mala Deni Lubis Djauhari, Haikal Djubaedi Yunus Erika Amelia Euis Amalia Fachrurazi Fathoni, Muhammad Anwar Fathoni, Muhammad Anwar Fathoni, Muhammad Anwar Fauziyah Latiefa Salsabila Gita Syardiana H. Rahmat Hidayat, H. Rahmat Habibah Moslem Hafid Asy’ari Haikal Djauhari Hasbi Abdul Al-Wahhab KH Hermadi Hermadi Hilyatun nafisah HUSNI SHABRI Hutomo, Dorojatyas Nuroska Irwanto, M. Endrik Jaharuddin, Jaharuddin KH, Hasbi Abdul Al-Wahhab Khairunnisa, Dini Anggreini Latifah, Leti Lili Supriyadi M. Arskal Salim M. Arskal Salim Maryadi Maryadi Mochamad Aziz, Roikhan Muchtar, Masruri Mufraini, M. Arief Muhamad Nadratuzzaman Hosen Muhammad Agus Salim Muhammad Anwar Fathoni Muhtadi mutawali, mutawali mutawali Nani Almuin Novia Nengsih Nur Hidayah Nurizal Ismail nurnaningsih, Desi Permana, Fikri C Pontjowinoto, Iwan P Pratiwi, Leni Nur Purnadi, Purnadi R. Melda Maesarach Rafiqi Rafiqi Rahma, Yusro Rahma, Yusro Rahmawati, Rahmawati Rakhmadi, Rezki Syahri Ramadhina, Salsabila Ratri Nurjanati Rezki Syahri Rakhmadi Ridlo, Muhammad Rasyid Rina Riniawati Riris Aishah Prasetyowati Roikhan Mochamad Aziz, Roikhan Mochamad Saepudin, Didin Said, Muhammad Salsabila Ramadhina Selvia Nuriasari Sopyan Sopyan Supriyono Supriyono Sururi Maudhunati Taruno, Agus Titi Dewi Warninda Tri Mulato Trimulato Trimulato, Trimulato Yacop Suparno Yahya Rivai Zuwesty Eka Putri, Zuwesty Eka