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All Journal EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis Jurnal Sosio Ekonomika Bisnis Jurnal Kesehatan Lingkungan indonesia Jurnal Psikologi JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI POSITRON AGRIEKONOMIKA Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Jurnal Teknik Sipil Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika JLBG (Jurnal Lingkungan dan Bencana Geologi) (Journal of Environment and Geological Hazards) Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) IJoLE: International Journal of Language Education Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia JWP (Jurnal Wacana Politik) Journal of Data Analysis Anuva: Jurnal Kajian Budaya, Perpustakaan, dan Informasi Samakia: Jurnal Ilmu Perikanan Asian Social Work Journal SRIWIJAYA JOURNAL OF MEDICINE JURNAL METEOROLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA E-Mabis: Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis International Journal for Educational and Vocational Studies Jurnal Ilmiah Kesehatan Jurnal Investasi Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi International Journal of Business, Law, and Education Narra J AKADEMIK: Jurnal Mahasiswa Ekonomi & Bisnis Transforma: Jurnal Manajemen Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Maneggio Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Diffusion: Journal of Systems and Information Technology CITAKARYA Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Samsul Anwar
Universitas Syiah Kuala
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PENGELOMPOKKAN WILAYAH KABUPATEN/KOTA BERDASARKAN JENIS KOPERASI DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA Al Khoiry, Harisah Haquel; Anwar, Samsul
Jurnal Cita Ekonomika Vol 18 No 1 (2024): Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Publisher : Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan, FEB Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51125/citaekonomika.v18i1.11486

Abstract

Cooperatives are an important aspect in encouraging economic and financial development in Indonesia, including in North Sumatra Province. Therefore, appropriate cooperative development strategies and efforts are needed to support cooperative development in the region. This research aims to group districts/cities in the North Sumatra province based on the 5 existing types of cooperatives, namely consumer, producer, savings and loan, service and marketing cooperatives. This research uses secondary data obtained from the Department of Cooperatives and Small and Medium Enterprises of North Sumatra Province with a total of 5,192 cooperatives. Data were analyzed using the K-means clustering method. The research results show that Medan City as the provincial capital is the region with the most types of cooperatives. Meanwhile, areas far from the provincial capital, like Nias Island, have relatively few cooperatives. The North Sumatra Provincial Government together with the district/city governments need to pay more attention to areas with a minimal number of cooperatives so that the level of community welfare in these areas increases through developing the quantity and quality of cooperatives in the region.
MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS, METODE ALTERNATIF DALAM MENGUKUR TINGKAT ELEKTABILITAS PESERTA PEMILU MELALUI TAGAR: STUDI KASUS PEMILIHAN PRESIDEN INDONESIA TAHUN 2019 Durrah, Fara Inka; Anwar, Samsul; Siregar, Latifah Rahayu
JWP (Jurnal Wacana Politik) Vol 5, No 1 (2020): JWP (Jurnal Wacana Politik) Maret
Publisher : Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (801.526 KB) | DOI: 10.24198/jwp.v5i1.27084

Abstract

Tingkat elektabilitas merupakan informasi yang sangat penting bagi peserta pemilihan umum (pemilu) baik calon legislatif maupun eksekutif. Selama ini, elektabilitas seorang kandidat diukur melalui survei yang dilakukan beberapa waktu sebelum masa tenang pemilihan. Selain membutuhkan biaya yang besar, terdapat rentang waktu antara survei dengan hari pemungutan suara sehingga hasilnya berpotensi bias. Oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan sebuah metode alternatif yang dapat digunakan sebagai pembanding dari hasil survei elektabilitas. Penelitian dengan memanfaatkan informasi melalui media sosial menjadi semakin relevan seiring dengan semakin banyaknya pengguna media sosial di Indonesia. Salah satu pendekatan yang cukup menjanjikan dalam mengukur elektabilitas peserta pemilu dengan memanfaatkan media sosial adalah Markov Chain Analysis (MCA). Selain berbiaya rendah, MCA juga dapat mengukur tingkat elektabilitas pada hari pemungutan suara yang tidak dapat dilakukan melalui survei. Sebagai ilustrasi, penelitian ini mengaplikasikan MCA pada pemilihan presiden (pilpres) 2019. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur tingkat elektabilitas terhadap kedua pasangan calon di media sosial melalui tagar utama pendukung masing-masing paslon (#2019tetapjokowi dan #2019gantipresiden). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada hari pemungutan suara, diprediksi jumlah penyebutan #2019gantipresiden di media sosial akan lebih banyak daripada #2019tetapjokowi. Meskipun berbeda dengan hasil perhitungan resmi pada pilpres 2019, metode MCA merupakan metode alternatif berbiaya rendah yang berpotensi dikembangkan untuk mengukur tingkat elektabilitas peserta pemilu pada masa yang akan datang. Pemilihan dan penambahan tagar yang representatif merupakan kunci penting dalam meningkatkan akurasi hasil analisis MCA.
Analisis Hubungan Empati, Caring dan Komunikasi Perawat Dengan Kepuasan Keluarga Terhadap Pelayanan Keperawatan Anak Thalasemia di Wilayah Kabupaten Bekasi nurmaliyati, nurni; Anwar, Samsul; Chairani, Reni
Jurnal Ilmiah Kesehatan Vol 14 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Ilmiah Kesehatan
Publisher : Universitas Mohammad Husni Thamrin

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37012/jik.v14i1.408

Abstract

ABSTRAKThalassemia merupakan penyakit sindrom kelaianan yang diwariskan yang banyak ditemukan pada anak-anak dan penderitanya terbesar di seluruh dunia. Penelitian bertujuan untuk mendapatkan gambaran dari hasil analisa hubungan empati, caring, dan komunikasi perawat dengan kepuasan keluarga terhadap pelayanan keperawatan dengan anak thalassemia di wilayah Kabupaten Bekasi. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskriptif korelasi dengan rancangan cross sectional dengan mengumpulkn data secara bersamaan. Pengambilan data total sampling sebanyak 182 keluarga. Analisa data uji Chi-square Caring nilai p (0,025) < α (0,05), ada hubungan bermakna antara caring perawat dengan kepuasan pelayanan. Sedangkan untuk empati dan komunikasi dengan uji Chi-Square empati nilai p (0,577) > α (0,05), komunikasi nilai p (1,000) tidak ada hubungan bermakna antara empati dan komunikasi perawat dengan kepuasan pelayanan. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan jadikan sebuah program pelatihan dan penyegaran bagi perawat dalam meningkatkan rasa empati, caring dan komunikasi pada pasen thalasemia dalam memberikan asuhan keperawatan.
Disruption of childhood vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia Fahriani, Marhami; Anwar, Samsul; Yufika, Amanda; Bakhtiar, Bakhtiar; Wardani, Elly; Winardi, Wira; Akel, Kaitlyn B.; Wagner, Abram L.; Harapan, Harapan
Narra J Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021): April 2021
Publisher : Narra Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52225/narraj.v1i1.7

Abstract

The aim of this study was to assess the magnitude of childhood vaccination disruption and to determine the predictors of delaying childhood vaccinations during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic among Indonesian parents. We conducted a nationwide, online, cross-sectional study. A set of questionnaires assessed the disruption of childhood vaccinations and possible explanatory variables, including demographic characteristics, current underlying disease, exposure to and confidence in COVID-19 information, perceived risk, attitude and practice on vaccination, and COVID-19 prevention practice. A multivariable linear regression was used to characterize the relationship between explanatory variables and delayed childhood vaccination. We included 1137 respondents for analysis, of which 52.6% were males and 58.4% participants aged between 31 and 50-years old. Disruption of childhood vaccination service in local health facilities was reported in 42.2% (480/1137) of respondents and 13.3% (193/1137) of respondents explained that their children could not be vaccinated because a healthcare facility temporary stopped the vaccination service. Of all respondents, 312 (27.4%) delayed vaccinating their children for a compulsory vaccination shot. Factors associated with higher odds of delaying compulsory vaccinations for children were employment and chronic disease status, flu vaccination status in the past year, and prior COVID-19 infection. In conclusion, there was a significant disruption of childhood vaccination practices in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is not only due to healthcare closures but also due to parents’ practice - delaying the compulsory childhood vaccination for their children. We urge the government to strengthen strategies to ensure childhood vaccination services are available to all children in the country during a pandemic.
Decline of notified dengue infections in Indonesia in 2017: Discussion of the possible determinants Dhewantara, Pandji Wibawa; Jamil, Kurnia F.; Fajar, Jonny Karunia; Saktianggi, Panji Probo; Nusa, Roy; Garjito , Triwibowo Ambar; Anwar, Samsul; Firzan, Firzan; Megawati , Dewi; Sasmono, R. Tedjo; Mudatsir, Mudatsir
Narra J Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021): April 2021
Publisher : Narra Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52225/narraj.v1i1.23

Abstract

This study was conducted to quantify the trend in dengue notifications in the country in 2017 and to explore the possible determinants. Annual nation-wide dengue notification data were obtained from the National Disease Surveillance of Ministry of Health of Indonesia. Annual incidence rate (IR) and case fatality rate (CFR) in 2017 and the previous years were quantified and compared. Correlations between annual larva free index (LFI), implementation coverage of integrated vector management (IVM), El Niño Southern Oscillation (Niño3.4), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Zika virus seropositivity and the percent change in IR and CFR of dengue were examined. The change of dengue IR and CFRs were mapped. In 2017, dengue IR was declined by 71% (22.55 per 100,000 population) compared to 2016 (77.96 per 100,000 population) while the CFR was slightly reduced from 0.79% to 0.75%. Reduction in IR and CFR occurred in 94.1% and 70.1% out of 34 provinces, respectively. The trend of dengue IR seems to be influenced by Niño3.4 but there is no clear evidence that Niño3.4 is the main reason for dengue reduction in 2017. It is difficult to elucidate that the reduction of dengue in 2017 was associated with previous Zika outbreaks. In conclusion, there was a significant reduction on dengue notifications in Indonesia in 2017. Further investigation is needed to look at the role of climate on the decline of dengue IR at finer temporal scale. In addition, study on the role of cross-protective immunity generated by Zika infection on dengue incidence is also warranted.
Attitude towards Zika among frontline physicians in a dengue-endemic country: A preliminary cross-sectional study in Indonesia Yufika, Amanda; Anwar, Samsul; Maulana, Reza; Wahyuniati, Nur; Ramadana, Rizki R.; Ikram, Ikram; Mudatsir, Mudatsir; Utomo, Prattama S.; Te, Haypheng; Enitan, Seyi Samson; Sirinam, Salin; Müller, Ruth; Setiawan, Abdul Malik
Narra J Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021): April 2021
Publisher : Narra Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52225/narraj.v1i1.32

Abstract

In dengue-endemic countries such as Indonesia, Zika may be misdiagnosed as dengue, leading to underestimates of Zika disease and less foreknowledge of pregnancy-related complications such as microcephaly. Objective: To assess the attitudes of frontline physicians in a dengue-endemic country toward testing for Zika infection among patients with dengue-like illnesses. Methods: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among general practitioners (GPs) in Indonesia. The survey assessed their attitude and also collected sociodemographic data, characteristics of their medical education, professional background, and workplace, and exposure to Zika cases. A two-step logistic regression analysis was used to assess possible variables associated with these attitudes. Results: A total of 370 GPs were included in the final analysis of which 70.8% had good attitude. Unadjusted analyses suggested that GPs who were 30 years old or older and those who had medical experience five years or longer had lower odds of having a positive attitude compared to those who aged younger than 30 years and those who had medical experience less than five years, OR: 0.58; 95%CI: 0.37, 0.91 and OR: 0.55; 95%CI: 0.35, 0.86, respectively. No explanatory variable was associated with attitude in the fully adjusted model. Conclusion: Our findings point to younger GPs with a shorter medical experience being more likely to consider testing for Zika infection among their patients presenting with dengue-like illnesses. Strategic initiatives may be needed to enhance older or longer-experienced physicians' capacity in diagnosing Zika infection.
Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination at different hypothetical efficacy and safety levels in ten countries in Asia, Africa, and South America Rosiello, Dott F.; Anwar, Samsul; Yufika, Amanda; Adam, Rashed Y.; Ismaeil, Mohajer IH.; Ismail, Asma Y.; Dahman, Nesrine BH.; Hafsi, Montacer; Ferjani, Manel; Sami, Farah S.; Monib, Fatma A; R, Subramaniam; Anandu, Sunil; Haque, Md Ariful; Ferreto, Lirane ED.; Aburto, José TO.; Rojas, Jorge ET.; Enitan, Seyi S.; Yomi, Akele R.; Ezigbo, Eyiuche D.; Babadi, Elham; Kakemam, Edris; Malik, Najma I.; Ullah, Irfan; Sallam, Malik
Narra J Vol. 1 No. 3 (2021): December 2021
Publisher : Narra Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52225/narra.v1i3.55

Abstract

Vaccine hesitancy, defined as the reluctance or rejection in receiving a vaccine despite its availability, represents a major challenge to global health efforts aiming to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the possible factors correlated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy using a refined well-informed approach can be helpful to address the phenomenon. The current study aimed to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates using four hypothetical scenarios of varying levels of vaccine efficacy and safety profiles in ten Asian, African and South American countries. These scenarios included: 95% efficacy and 20% side effects (Vaccine A), 75% efficacy and 5% side effects (Vaccine B); 75% efficacy and 20% side effects (Vaccine C) and 50% efficacy and 5% side effects (Vaccine D). This study used a self-administered online survey that was distributed during February–May 2021. The total number of study respondents was 1337 with countries of residence as follows: India (21.1%), Pakistan (12.9%), Sudan (11.2%), Nigeria (9.3%), Iran (8.2%), Bangladesh and Brazil (7.9%), Chile (7.7%), Tunisia (7.6%), and Egypt (6.2%). The overall acceptance rates for COVID-19 vaccination were variable based on varying degrees of safety and efficacy as follows: 55.6% for Vaccine C, 58.3% for Vaccine D, 74.0% for Vaccine A and 80.1% for Vaccine B. The highest levels of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance were observed in Brazil followed by Chile across the four different safety and efficacy scenarios. The lowest COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates were reported in Egypt and Tunisia for the low safety scenarios (20% side effects), and the low efficacy scenario (50% efficacy). The study revealed the potential effect of vaccine safety and efficacy on the intention to get COVID-19 vaccination. At the same efficacy level, higher possibility of side effects caused a large drop in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate. This indicates the importance of accurate communication regarding vaccine safety and efficacy on attitude towards the vaccine and intentions to get vaccinated. Regional differences in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance were observed with the Middle East/North African countries showing the lowest rates and the South American countries displaying the highest vaccine acceptance rates.
Willingness-to-pay for COVID-19 vaccine in ten low-middle-income countries in Asia, Africa and South America: A cross-sectional study Sallam, Malik; Anwar, Samsul; Yufika, Amanda; Fahriani, Marhami; Husnah, Milda; Kusuma, Hendrix I.; Raad, Rawan; Khiri, Namareg ME.; Abdalla, Rashed YA.; Adam, Rashed Y.; Ismaeil, Mohajer IH.; Ismail, Asma Y.; Kacem, Wajdi; Teyeb, Zeineb; Aloui , Khaoula; Hafsi , Montacer; Dahman, Nesrine Ben Hadj; Ferjani, Manel; Deeb, Dalia; Emad , Dina; Sami, Farah S.; Abbas, Kirellos Said; Monib, Fatma A.; R , Subramaniam; Panchawagh, Suhrud; Sharun, Khan; Anandu, Sunil; Gachabayov, Mahir; Haque , Md A.; Emran, Talha B.; Wendt, Guilherme W.; Ferreto, Lirane ED.; Castillo-Briones, María F.; Inostroza-Morales, Rocío B.; Lazcano-Díaz, Sebastián A.; Ordóñez-Aburto, José T.; Troncoso-Rojas, Jorge E.; Balogun, Emmanuel O.; Yomi, Akele R.; Durosinmi, Abiodun; Adejumo, Esther N.; Ezigbo, Eyiuche D.; Arab-Zozani, Morteza; Babadi, Elham; Kakemam, Edris; Ullah, Irfan; Malik, Najma I.; Dababseh, Deema; Rosiello, Francesco; Enitan , Seyi S.
Narra J Vol. 2 No. 1 (2022): April 2022
Publisher : Narra Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52225/narra.v2i1.74

Abstract

Vaccine hesitancy is considered as one of the greatest challenges to control the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A related challenge is the unwillingness of the general public to pay for vaccination. The objective of this study was to determine willingness-to-pay (WTP) for COVID-19 vaccine among individuals from ten low-middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa, and South America. Data were collected using an online questionnaire distributed during February - May 2021 in ten LMICs (Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, India, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan, and Tunisia). The major response variable of in this study was WTP for a COVID-19 vaccine. The assessment of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was based on items adopted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) vaccine hesitancy scale constructs. In this study, 1337 respondents included in the final analysis where the highest number of respondents was from India, while the lowest number was from Egypt. A total of 88.9% (1188/1337) respondents were willing to pay for the COVID-19 vaccination, and 11.1% (149/1337) were not. The average WTP for COVID-19 vaccination was 87.9 US dollars ($), (range: $5-$200). The multivariate model analysis showed that the country, monthly household income, having a history of respiratory disease, the agreement that routine vaccines recommended by health workers are beneficial and having received the flu vaccination within the previous 12 months were strongly associated with the WTP. Based on the country of origin, the highest mean WTP for COVID-19 vaccine was reported in Chile, while the lowest mean WTP for the vaccine was seen among the respondents from Sudan. The availability of free COVID-19 vaccination services appears as a top priority in the LMICs for successful control of the ongoing pandemic. This is particularly important for individuals of a lower socio-economic status. The effects of complacency regarding COVID-19 extends beyond vaccine hesitancy to involve less willingness to pay for COVID-19 vaccine and a lower value of WTP for the vaccine.
Perbandingan Perilaku Gempa Bumi Susulan Pidie Jaya (7 Desember 2016) dan Ambon (26 September 2019) Anwar, Samsul; Maulia, Faiza; Salwa, Nany
Jurnal Lingkungan dan Bencana Geologi Vol 13, No 2 (2022)
Publisher : Badan Geologi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34126/jlbg.v13i2.349

Abstract

Aceh dan Maluku merupakan dua wilayah yang terletak pada pertemuan lempeng tektonik dunia sehingga banyak mengalami kejadian gempa bumi. Gempa bumi utama pada umumnya diikuti oleh gempa bumi susulan dengan kekuatan dan intensitas yang berbeda-beda. Gempa bumi Pidie Jaya (Provinsi Aceh) pada tanggal 7 Desember 2016 memiliki kesamaan karakter dengan gempa bumi Ambon (Provinsi Maluku) pada tanggal 26 September 2019. Kedua gempa bumi tersebut memiliki magnitudo 6,5 dengan kedalaman yang dangkal (< 60 km). Meskipun kedua gempa bumi utama tersebut memiliki karakter yang sama, namun kerusakan dan korban jiwa yang diakibatkan keduanya berbeda sehingga perlu dilakukan perbandingan perilaku gempa bumi susulan di kedua wilayah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan perilaku gempa bumi susulan pasca gempa bumi utama di Pidie Jaya tahun 2016 dan Ambon tahun 2019. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga fungsi lifetime analysis dalam menganalisis perilaku gempa bumi susulan, yaitu probability density function (PDF), reliabilitas, dan hazard. Data yang digunakan bersumber dari BMKG berupa selisih waktu terjadinya gempa bumi susulan terhadap gempa bumi utamanya. Melalui graphical analysis, diketahui bahwa data selisih waktu gempa bumi susulan Pidie Jaya mengikuti distribusi lognormal, sedangkan data selisih waktu gempa bumi susulan Ambon mengikuti distribusi weibull. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa gempa bumi susulan Pidie Jaya berpeluang besar untuk terjadi dengan intensitas yang tinggi pada 2 hari pertama setelah gempa bumi utamanya, sedangkan gempa bumi susulan Ambon cenderung terjadi dengan intensitas yang lebih merata selama periode pengamatan. Hasil pengujian log rank test membuktikan adanya perbedaan yang signifikan antara kurva reliabilitas gempa bumi susulan di wilayah Pidie Jaya dan Ambon. AbstractAceh and Maluku are two areas located at the confluence of the world's tectonic plates so that they experience many earthquakes. Mainshocks are typically followed by aftershocks with different magnitudes and intensities. The Pidie Jaya (Aceh Province) earthquake on December 7, 2016, has similar character with the Ambon (Maluku Province) earthquake on September 26, 2019. Both earthquakes have magnitudes of 6.5 with a shallow depth (< 60 km). Although those earthquakes possessed a similar character, the damage and casualties caused were different, so it is necessary to compare the aftershocks behavior following the mainshock in those two regions. This study aims to compare the aftershocks behavior following the mainshock of Pidie Jaya in 2016 and Ambon in 2019. This study utilizes three lifetime analysis functions in analyzing the aftershocks behavior, namely the probability density function (PDF), reliability and hazard function. The data employed sourced from BMKG, namely the time difference between aftershocks and the mainshock. Through graphical analysis, it is known that the time difference data for Pidie Jaya aftershocks follows a lognormal distribution, while the time difference data for Ambon aftershocks follows a weibull distribution. The results showed that the Pidie Jaya aftershock had a high probability of occurring with high intensity in the first 2 days after the mainshock, while the Ambon aftershock tends to happen with more even intensity during the observed periods. The log rank test results prove there is a significant difference between the reliability curves of the aftershocks in the Pidie Jaya and Ambon regions.
Peramalan curah hujan di Provinsi Aceh menggunakan metode Box-Jenkins Nurhafifah, Nurhafifah; Patriardian, Ferdy; Hidayati, Alfy; Alzahira, Ratu Rahil; Tasyant, Deva Jhuandra; Anwar, Samsul
Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika Vol 23 No 1 (2023): Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/mims.v23i1.34702

Abstract

Floods are one of the natural disasters that frequently occur in Indonesia, including in Aceh Province. Floods primarily occur when rainfall is intense, mainly in the rainy season. Flood disaster management in Aceh Province is still not optimal, so efforts are required to minimize the negative effects of the flood disaster. One of the efforts that can be done is to predict the rainfall that may occur in the future. This study aims to predict rainfall in Aceh Province in 2022 and 2023. The data employed are monthly rainfall data in Aceh Province from 2014 to 2021. The forecasting method employed to predict rainfall is the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. Forecasting results using the ARMA (8,6) model show that rainfall in Aceh Province in 2022 and 2023 are predicted to tend to be intense in March, April, May, September, October and November. The Aceh government together with the district/city governments need to prepare anticipatory steps, for example by cleaning water flows like ditches and rivers and socializing about the dangers of flooding and its causes, especially for people living in watersheds. These actions are expected to minimize the potential for flooding in Aceh Province in the future, especially when rainfall is predicted to be intense. Keywords:Aceh Province, box-jenkins, flood, forecasting, rainfallMSC2020:62M10
Co-Authors Aan Juhana Senjaya, Aan Juhana Abbas, Kirellos Said Abdalla, Rashed YA. Abdul Malik Abdul Malik Setiawan Abiodun Durosinmi Abram L. Wagner Aburto, José TO. Adam, Rashed Y. Adejumo, Esther N. Aditya Pranata Afriyani Afriyani Afriyani Afriyani Afriyani, Afriyani Agung Pranata Agus Yudianto Ahya, Desfira Aida Fitri Aja Fatimah Zohra Akel, Kaitlyn B. Akele R. Yomi Akele R. Yomi Akhyar Wijaya Aksa, Rahmad Al Khoiry, Harisah Haquel Aloui , Khaoula Alzahira, Ratu Rahil Amaliyah, Shofie Amanda Yufika Amanda Yufika Anak Agung Dewi Megawati Anandu, Sunil Andriani, Mutia Andriani, Mutia Arab-Zozani, Morteza Ardesfira, Gelbi Ariska, Reza Asma Y. Ismail Assakhiy, Rasyada Ayulinda, Arianisah P. Azlinda Azman, Azlinda Babadi, Elham Bakhtiar Bakhtiar Bakhtiar Bakhtiar Balogun, Emmanuel O. Castillo-Briones, María F. Dababseh, Deema Dahman, Nesrine Ben Hadj Dahman, Nesrine BH. Dalia Deeb DARYONO Dawita, Irsa Deeb, Dalia Deema Dababseh Desfira Ahya Dewi Megawati Dina Emad Dinda Maulina Dott F. Rosiello Durosinmi, Abiodun Durrah, Fara Inka Dwi Astiti Syahbani Edris Kakemam Eko Sudarmanto Elfrida Ratnawati Elham Babadi Elham Babadi Elly Wardani Emad , Dina Emmanuel O. Balogun Emran, Talha B. Enitan , Seyi S. Enitan, Seyi S. Enitan, Seyi Samson Erni Lusiani Esther N. Adejumo Eyiuche D. Ezigbo Eyiuche D. Ezigbo Ezigbo, Eyiuche D. Fahriani, Marhami Fajar, Jonny Karunia Fanny Oktavani Farah S. Sami Fathima, Raisha Fatma A Monib Fatma A. Monib Fauzi Farchan, Fauzi Fazana, Iin Febrina, Ilza Ferjani, Manel Ferreto, Lirane ED. Firzan Firzan Firzan Nainu Firzan, Firzan Fitri, Aida Fitriana AR Fitriana, A.R. Francesco Rosiello Fredinan Yulianda Gachabayov, Mahir Gani, Azhar Abdul Garjito , Triwibowo Ambar Guilherme W. Wendt Hafsi , Montacer Hafsi, Montacer Haque , Md A. Haque, Md Ariful Harapan Harapan Harapan Harapan Haypheng Te Hendrix I. Kusuma Hidayati, Alfy Husnah, Milda Ichsan Ichsan Ida Fajri Ikram Ikram Ikram Ikram Inas Salsabila Inati, Inati Indhitya R Padiku Inostroza-Morales, Rocío B. Irawan, Anjas Irfan Ullah Ismaeil, Mohajer IH. Ismail, Asma Y. Isra Safriana Iswani, Novira Jamir Singh, Paramjit Singh Jannah, Syarifah Raihannatul Jayawarsa, A.A. Ketut Jorge E. Troncoso-Rojas Jorge ET. Rojas José T. Ordóñez-Aburto José TO. Aburto Juraida Fitri Kacem, Wajdi Kaitlyn B. Akel Kakemam, Edris Kamil, Qatrunnada Khan Sharun Khaoula Aloui Khiri, Namareg ME. Kirellos Said Abbas Kurnia F. Jamil Kurnia F. Jamil Kusuma, Hendrix I. Latief, Kamaluddin Latifah Rahayu Lazcano-Díaz, Sebastián A. Lembong, Herningsih Sutri Lirane ED. Ferreto Lisa Kustina Maelani, Imelda Mahir Gachabayov Maimun Syukri, Maimun Malik Sallam Malik Sallam Malik, Najma I. Manel Ferjani Manel Ferjani Marhami Fahriani Marhami Fahriani María F. Castillo-Briones Maulia, Faiza Maulida, Putri Md A. Haque Md Ariful Haque Meddy Nurpratama Mellinia, Sania A. Milda Husnah Mohajer IH. Ismaeil Mohajer IH. Ismaeil Mohammad B. Hossain Mohd. Andalas Monib, Fatma A Monib, Fatma A. Montacer Hafsi Morteza Arab-Zozani Mudatsir Mudatsir Mudatsir Mudatsir Mudatsir Mudatsir Muhajir Akbar Hsb Muhammad Fahmi Nugraha Muhammad Haikal Nasution Muhammad Syaiful Müller, Ruth Mutia Andriani Mutiara, Suci Najma I. Malik Nalapraya, Widhy Y. Namareg ME. Khiri Nanda, Cut M. Nany Salwa Nany Salwa Nasution, Muhammad Haikal Nesrine Ben Hadj Dahman Nesrine BH. Dahman Nestari, Letta Fidria Nirwana, Aura Novandri, Aditya Novira Iswani Nunung Nurhayati Nur Shima Nur Wahyuniati Nur Wahyuniati, Nur Nurhafifah, Nurhafifah Nurhasanah Nurhasanah Nurhidayati Nurhidayati Nurhidayati Nurhidayati nurmaliyati, nurni Nurshodiq, Hafidz Nurul Hidayati Ordóñez-Aburto, José T. Panchawagh, Suhrud Pandji Wibawa Dhewantara Pandji Wibawa Dhewantara Panji Probo Saktianggi Patriardian, Ferdy Prattama S. Utomo Putri Shalihatul Ula Putri, Irmiza Putri, Widia R , Subramaniam R, Subramaniam R. Tedjo Sasmono Raad, Rawan Radhiah Radhiah Radian Akrama Rahayuningsih, Nurjanah Rahima, Siti Rahmadhiyanti, Julia Rahmi, Rizqa Maulida Raihan Nora Ramadana, Rizki R. Rashed Y. Adam Rashed Y. Adam Rashed YA. Abdalla Rawan Raad Reni Chairani Reza Ariska Reza Ariska Reza Maulana Reza Maulana Ridha Ferdhiana Ridho Purnama Gustifa Rifanki, Gusti Riki Rihadatur Rahmah Rizki R. Ramadana Rocío B. Inostroza-Morales Rojas, Jorge ET. Rosiello, Dott F. Rosiello, Francesco Roy Nusa Roy Nusa Rudi Kurniawan Rudi Wahyudi Ruth Müller Safitri, Herlina Adyanti Safwani, Nazira Saiful Mahdi Saktianggi, Panji Probo Salin Sirinam Sallam, Malik Salsabila, Inas Sami, Farah S. Sandi, Riski Friyah Hari Sarifuddin Sarifuddin Sasmono, R. Tedjo Sebastián A. Lazcano-Díaz Setiadi, Daryono Seyi S. Enitan Seyi Samson Enitan Sharun, Khan Shinta Lestari Siregar, Latifah Rahayu Siregar, Silvy Amelia Sirinam, Salin Sofyan, Rahmadaini Sofyan, Sarwo E. Subramaniam R Subramaniam R Sudarso, Aden Prawiro Suhrud Panchawagh Sukamto, Ika Sumiyarsi Sunil Anandu Surianti Surianti, Surianti Syahraini, Aigia Syarifah Feramuhawan Talha B. Emran Tasyant, Deva Jhuandra Te, Haypheng Teuku Akhdansyah Teyeb, Zeineb Tri Wahyudi Tri Wahyudi Triwibowo Ambar Garjito Troncoso-Rojas, Jorge E. Tundu, Astrid Kristiana Ullah, Irfan Utomo, Prattama S. Viza Fitria Wagner, Abram L. Wahyudi, Rudi Wajdi Kacem Wendt, Guilherme W. Winny Dian Safitri Wira Winardi Wira Winardi, Wira Wiwik Handayani Yesi Astri Yolanda Utami, Cut Chairilla Yomi, Akele R. Yufika, Amanda Yundari, Yundari Zannah, Miftakhul Zaujatul Amna, Zaujatul Zedha, Hazulil Fitriah Zeineb Teyeb Zohra, Aja Fatimah Zuhdi Nasution , M Arief Zulfazli Zulfazli