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Journal : Jurnal Varian

Using SAPR Model for Solution of Social Poverty Problem Due to Covid-19 in Makassar City Suwardi Annas; Syafruddin Side; Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pandjajangi; Nurul Fadhilah Syahrul; Luthfiah Arradiah
Jurnal Varian Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v5i1.1399

Abstract

This study aims to build an SAPR model on the problem of poverty, analyze the model, predict the number of poverty rates in the city of Makassar, and determine the parameters that affect the decrease in the number of poverty rates due to Covid-19 in the city of Makassar. This research is quantitative. The population of this study is the number of people in Makassar City who are affected by the spread of COVID-19, while the sample of this study is 400 people. The research stages are: Building the SAPR model on the level of social poverty, determining and analyzing the stability of the equilibrium point, determining the value of the basic reproduction number (R0), conducting model simulations using Maple. The results shown that the mathematical model of SAPR which is a non-linear system of differential equations can be a reference model for the problem of poverty; The results also shown that the analysis of the social poverty level of the population finds two equilibrium points, namely the free equilibrium point for the poor and the poor; the stability of the equilibrium point is free-poor and poor; The basic reproduction number R0 = 0.426 indicates that the poverty level of the social population can be controlled even though it has increased. Based on the model simulation, it was found that the parameter in the form of business funding assistance from the government could reduce the poverty rate due to the Covid-19 pandemic in Makassar city.
The Effectiveness of Vaccination Against The Spread of COVID-19 with SEIR Mathematical Modeling in Gowa District Putri Kharina Mahathir Hulinggi; Husnul Khatimah Syam; Muhammad Irfan; Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik; Syafruddin Side
Jurnal Varian Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v5i1.1404

Abstract

The spread of disease in epidemic range, endemic range, as well as in the pandemic range that is spreading of the disease can be stopped with getting vaccinated. The vaccines that are effective and efficient can be the missile that stopped this Covid-19 pandemic. The aim of this research is to (1) know the mapping model of mathematics SEIR in distributing vaccines toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa, (2) know the analysis and model simulation of mathematics SEIR in distributing vaccine toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa, also (3) know the impact of distributing vaccine toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa. The method we used is the literature review, the collecting data obtained by an interview and documentation review. The research result discovered that the model of mathematics SEIR is used to describe the distribution of vaccines toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa. The analysis and simulation results model of mathematics SEIR showed that the higher vaccines effectiveness and the number of the population in Kabupaten Gowa that already had vaccinated is higher, then showed no more spreads of Covid-19 and the pandemic is over.
Optimum Control of SEIR Model on COVID-19 Spread with Delay Time and Vaccination Effect in South Sulawesi Province Syafruddin Side; Irwan Irwan; Muhammad Rifandi; Muhammad Isbar Pratama; Ruliana Ruliana; Nor Zila Abdul Hamid
Jurnal Varian Vol 6 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v6i1.1882

Abstract

The increasing number of cases and the development of new variants of the Covid-19 virus globally including the territory of Indonesia, especially in the province of South Sulawesi are increasingly worrying and need to be prevented. Therefore, this study aims to develop a SEIR model on the spread of Covid-19 with vaccination control, optimal control analysis, stability analysis and numerical simulation of the SEIR model on the spread of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi. This study uses the SEIR epidemic model to predict the spread of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi Province with parameters such as birth rate, cure rate, mortality rate, interaction rate and vaccination. The SEIR model was chosen because it is one of the basic methods in the epidemiological model. The method used to build the model is a time delay model by considering the vaccination factor as a model parameter, model analysis using the next generation matrix method to determine the basic reproduction number and stability of the Covid-19 distribution model in South Sulawesi. Numerical model simulation using secondary data on the number of Covid-19 cases in South Sulawesi starting in 2021 which was obtained from the South Sulawesi Provincial Health Office. The results obtained are model analysis provides evidence of the existence of optimal control in the model. Based on the results obtained, it can also be seen that vaccination greatly influences the spread of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi, so that awareness is needed for the people of South Sulawesi to follow the government's recommendation to vaccinate to prevent or reduce the rate of transmission of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi.
The NADI Mathematical Model on the Danger Level of the Bili-Bili Dam Sukarna Sukarna; Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andin P; Syafruddin Side; Aswi Aswi; Supriadi Yusuf
Jurnal Varian Vol 6 No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v6i2.2237

Abstract

The research discusses the NADI mathematical model due to the overflow of the Bili-Bili dam, using secondary data obtained through online literature review by collecting various information related to the Bili-Bili Dam, starting from the Jeberang River Scheme, the chronology of floods, normal or dry conditions, and dam operation patterns. The aim of this study is to predict the level of danger of Bili-bili dam overflow over time, considering extreme weather factors and standard operating procedures performed by humans. The research uses analytical and computational methods. The study obtained the NADI mathematical model due to the overflow of the Bili-Bili dam, with two equilibrium points: (1) the equilibrium point free of disaster, (2) the disaster equilibrium point, and a basic disaster reproduction number of R0 = 1.219. This indicates that the water discharge from the dam is high and has an impact on the overflowing water for communities around the Jeneberang river. Therefore, it can be concluded that the NADI model can be used to simulate the Bili-bili dam process based on extreme weather and dam SOP, and predict the level of danger of Bili-bili dam overflow, which is also a novelty that has not been done in previous studies.
Simulating the Dynamics of Early Marriage and Marital Stability Using SERH Mathematical Models Khairana, Nadiyah; Annas, Suwardi; Side, Syafruddin; Sainon Andi Pandjajangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.4460

Abstract

This study aims to develop a mathematical model of SERH (Susceptible, Engaged, Risk, and Stabilization) to analyze and predict the incidence of early marriage in South Sulawesi Province. The research employs method a combination of theoretical and applied approaches, utilizing differential equations to model the dynamics of early marriage spread. Data were collected through questionnaires distributed to 400 couples selected using the Slovin technique, representing a population of 57,789 couples. The SERH model parameters, including the rate of couple interaction , transition from engagement to risk , and recovery from risk to stability , were derived from the collected data. Simulations were conducted using Maple software to visualize the spread of early marriage under different scenarios. The results of the analysis revealed two equilibrium points: a marriage-free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium. The basic reproduction number  was calculated to be 3.97, indicating that one couple can influence 3-4 others in their social environment. However, with effective interventions such as education and counseling, the R₀ value can be reduced to 0.45, significantly lowering the spread of early marriage. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers to design targeted prevention programs and highlights the importance of early intervention in reducing the prevalence of early marriage.  
Co-Authors . Sulaiman . Sulaiman . Sutra . Sutra Abdul Kadir Abdul Kadir Abdul Rahman Ahmad Ali Ramli AHMAD FAUZAN RIDHA SUJIONO ahmad yani Ahmad Yani Ahmad Zaki AHMAD ZAKI Ahmad Zaki Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aidid, Muhammad Kasim Aisyah Mukhlisah Araaf Aisyah Zahra Ramadhani Asya Akbar Aldri Frinaldi Alief Saputro Alimuddin Tampa Alvioni Bani Amal Arfan, Amal Amni Rasyidah Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik Andi Muhammad Ridho Sainon Andi Pandjajangi Andi Muhammad Ridho SAP Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pandjajangi Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andin P Angri Lismayani Annas, Suwardi Annisa Uniarti Annisa Uniarti Arifuddin R Arika Dwi Angraeni Rasida Arkas, Amaliah Nurul Armalinda Mohammad Adam Arsita, Asriani Asdar Astri Utari Aswi, Aswi Aulia, Hikma Baehaqi Bahar, Nur Qadri Baiq Nurkhalishah Beby Fitriani Bohari, Nurul Aulia Bohari, Nurul Aulia Citra Suci Said Damang, Dahnial Dian Pebriani Emi Wulandari Fajar Arwadi Fitrah Mallolongeng Fitriani Fitriani Fitriyani Fitriyani Fitriyani Gita Tri Asfarina Gita Tri Asfarina Hadrianty Ramli Hadrianty Ramly Hamzah Upu Haris Haris, Haris Hasri Hasri Hasri Hasri Hirpan Hirpan Hisyam Ihsan Husnul Khatimah Syam Ilham Minggi Imron AY, Muhamammad Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Ismail, Khusnul Ryana Tasya J, Jusriadi Ja'faruddin Jafaruddin a, Jafaruddin Kaito, Nurlaila Karwingsi, Ersa Katrina Pareallo Khadijah , Ummul Khairana, Nadiyah La Ode Salman Yassar Luthfiah Arradiah Mallolongeng, Fitrah Marfianti, Marfianti Maulida, Nurul Ismi Meisy Tri Elsa Meisy Tri Elsa Miswar Mohd Salmi Md Noorani Mudinillah, Adam Muh Al Rasyid Ridho Muh. Darwis Muh. Rifki Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Arif Tiro, Muhammad Arif Muhammad Edy Rizal Muhammad Farhan Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Irfan Muhammad Isbar Pratama Muhammad Nur Ilham Muhammad Rakib Muhammad Ridho Yusuf SAP Muhammad Rifandi Muhjria, Muhjria Muktamar, Muhammad Ilham Mulyaningrum, Dwidary Munadiya Yunadiya Musawira, Musawira Musdalifa Pagga Musdalifah Pagga Musfira, Musfira Musfira, Nur Fadillah Mustati'atul Waidah Maksum mutiara mutiara N. Nurhaeda Neldi Neldi, Neldi Nikmatullah Nur, Nikmatullah Nor Zila Abdul Hamid Nora Auliya Zahra Norliana Rahmasari Nur Fajri Setiawan Nur Izzah Nurdin Nur Khaerati Rustan Nur Qomariah Nurazizah Nurdin, Nur Izzah Nurhaeda Nurul Aulia Bohari Nurul Azizah Muzakir Nurul Fadhilah Syahrul Nurwahidah Sari Nurwijayanti Nusrang, Muhammad Padjalangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pagga, Musdalifa Palumpun, Feby Fristi Pandjajangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Puspitasari Putri Kharina Mahathir Hulinggi Qudratullah Qudratullah Rahman, Muhammad Fatur Rahmasari, Norliana Rahmat Syam Rahmat Syam Raihana Nurfitrah Raihana Nurfitrah Ramadhan, Nur Resky Ramadhani, Muthia Reza Arisandi Reza Arisandi Ridho, Andi Muhammad Rifki, Muh. Risma Risma, Risma Rosmini Maru Rudi Ruliana Rustan, Nur Khaerati S. Sartika Sahlan Sidjara Sahlan Sidjara Sainon Andi Pandjajangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sakina Putri Sahara Sanusi, Wahida SAP, Andi Muh. Ridho Yusuf SATRIYAS ILYAS Setiawan, Nur Fajri Sidjara, Sahlan Sopiyah Sri Indriani Sri Nur Qadri St. Nurhilmah Busrah Suciyanti, Nurafni Sudarmin - Suhartono Nurdin Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sulaiman - Sulaiman Sulaiman Supriadi Supriadi Supriadi Yusuf Suriyandi Suriyandi Sutriani Hidri, Sutriani Suwardi Annas Syahirah, Nurul Syahrana Syahrana Syana Nurul Utari Syarif Hidayat Syarif Hidayat Talib, Dr. Ahmad Usman Mulbar Wahidah Sanusi Wahidah Sanusi Wahyuni, Maya Sari Wahyuni, Maya Sari Waode Nurlaelah Wulandari, Emi Yanti, Nurul Castri Yulita Molliq Rangkuti Yusnalia Kadir Yusuf Ramadana Yusuf S.A.P., Andi Muh. Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pandjajangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf SAP, Andi Muh. Ridho Yusuf SAP, Andi Muhammad Ridho Zahra, Nora Auliya Zakyah, Nur