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Causality Analysis of Economic Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia: An ARDL Approach Basudewa, Meisya Diazzahra Putri; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1925

Abstract

One important indicator of Indonesia's economic condition is the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). As the measure of all listed stocks, its movement directly reflects economic stability and investor confidence. The JCI is, however, highly susceptible to both global and domestic macroeconomic pressures, making its relationship with key fundamentals, such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term and long-term impacts of inflation, interest rates, and economic growth on the JCI. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on time series data using secondary data and quantitative correlation techniques. The results show that although economic growth has no short-term impact on the JCI, it does have a significant long-term impact. On the other hand, neither inflation nor interest rates have a significant impact on the JCI in the short or long term. An adjustment rate of 50.49% was achieved using an error correction mechanism, indicating a tendency towards long-term equilibrium. Additional causality analysis shows a unidirectional relationship between inflation and the JCI and between the JCI and economic growth. However, neither the JCI nor interest rates and economic growth have a reciprocal relationship on the JCI, and there is no causal relationship between the both.
The Effect of Minimum Wage, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and Open Unemployment Rate on Labor Absorption in Manufacturing Industry Sector in Java Island Munggaran, Rebion Raga; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1927

Abstract

The manufacturing industry in Java Island plays an important role in Indonesia's economy, contributing significantly to Minimum Wage, Gross Regional Domestic Product, and Open Unemployment Rate. However, there are imbalances between provinces influenced by regional policies, economic conditions, and industrial sectors. This research aims to analyze the long-term, short-term effects, and long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) in Java Island, covering six provinces: DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, and Banten. The method used is a quantitative approach with secondary data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for the period 2010-2024, analyzed using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with EViews version 13 software. The research results show that in the long term, Minimum Wage and Open Unemployment Rate have significant negative effects on Labor Absorption, while Gross Regional Domestic Product has a significant positive effect. In the short term, these variables do not significantly affect most provinces. However, analysis of the long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) shows that provinces such as West Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, and Banten have significant adjustments, while DKI Jakarta and Central Java do not show significant adjustments. The research conclusions indicate that Gross Regional Domestic Product has a positive effect on labor absorption, while Minimum Wage and Open Unemployment Rate have negative effects. Long-term adjustment mechanisms are significant in several provinces, but DKI Jakarta and Central Java face structural barriers. Therefore, more responsive and balanced economic policies are needed.
Pengelolaan Produk Olahan Lokal Rengginang di Desa Bojot sebagai Upaya Pemberdayaan Ekonomi Masyarakat Listiani, Mira; Aslami, Iron Fajrul; Kenedi, Kenedi
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa Vol. 3 No. 7 (2025): September
Publisher : Amirul Bangun Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59837/jpmba.v3i7.3003

Abstract

Rendahnya nilai tambah produk pertanian lokal dan terbatasnya inovasi pengolahan pangan tradisional menjadi tantangan serius dalam pengembangan ekonomi masyarakat pedesaan. Program Pengelolaan Produk Olahan Lokal Rengginang merupakan inisiatif pemberdayaan yang bertujuan meningkatkan kualitas produksi dan daya saing rengginang di Desa Bojot, Kecamatan Jawilan, Kabupaten Serang. Kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat ini dilaksanakan melalui kolaborasi antara Mahasiswa KKM 85 Universitas Bina Bangsa (UNIBA) dengan pelaku UMKM lokal. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan partisipatif dengan kegiatan pemberdayaan berupa pelatihan teknik produksi higienis, pengembangan inovasi rasa, dan perbaikan sistem pengemasan modern. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pelaksanaan KKM mampu membantu UMKM dalam menciptakan identitas visual baru melalui logo dan desain kemasan yang lebih menarik. Selain itu, pengelolaan produk olahan lokal juga memberikan motivasi kepada UMKM agar semangat mengolah produk renginang ini.
Tertiary Education, Investment, and Labor Force Participation as Determinants of Indonesia’s Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL Analysis, 1990–2023 Anisa, Aan; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8217

Abstract

The relationship between higher education and economic growth has been widely discussed, yet evidence from emerging economies such as Indonesia remains inconclusive, particularly when considering the interplay of education, investment, and labor market dynamics. This study seeks to address this gap by analyzing Indonesia’s economic performance from 1990 to 2023 using annual time-series data sourced from the World Bank. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis reveals that tertiary education enrollment exerts a significant positive contribution to economic expansion (coefficient = 0.0118, p < 0.01), while investment demonstrates a robust growth-enhancing effect (coefficient = 0.3859, p < 0.01). By contrast, labor force participation shows a negative association (coefficient = –0.0164, p < 0.05), reflecting structural inefficiencies in the labor market. In the short horizon, investment delivers immediate and significant benefits (coefficient = 0.4016, p < 0.01), whereas changes in labor force participation appear statistically negligible. The error correction term (–0.4622, p < 0.01) further indicates a moderate pace of adjustment, with nearly 46% of disequilibria resolved annually. These results highlight the need for policies that strengthen higher education quality, sustain a favorable investment climate, and reform labor markets, thereby ensuring that Indonesia moves toward inclusive and sustainable development.
Pengaruh Harga Emas, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Indonesia Budiman, Dedi; Munir Hidayat, Asep; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Wulan Agustini, Anti
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8261

Abstract

The main problem in the Indonesian capital market is the high volatility of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which is often influenced by both external and internal factors, making it difficult for investors to make investment decisions. This uncertainty raises questions about the extent to which macroeconomic variables, particularly gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate, affect the movement of the JCI. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is the primary indicator reflecting the performance of the Indonesian stock market. Its movement is heavily influenced by various macroeconomic variables, including gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate. Gold serves as a safe-haven asset favored during periods of market instability, while interest rates and exchange rates reflect monetary conditions and domestic purchasing power. This study aims to analyze the effect of gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia. The method used is a quantitative approach with quarterly time series data from 2014 to 2024. The analysis was conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with the assistance of EViews 12 software. The estimation results of the ARDL model show that in the short run, gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate do not have a significant effect on the JCI, as the t-statistic values of each variable are smaller than the t-table at a 5% significance level. However, in the long run, gold prices and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant effect on the JCI with t-statistic values of 2.984417 and 2.634944, respectively, which exceed the t-table. This indicates that movements in gold prices as a safe-haven asset and fluctuations in the exchange rate contribute to JCI dynamics in the long run. Conversely, interest rates show no significant effect in either the short run or the long run. These findings emphasize the importance of considering certain macroeconomic variables in the long run as a basis for investment decision-making in the Indonesian capital market. Therefore, stable and predictable macroeconomic policies are essential to create a healthy investment climate in Indonesia.
Pengaruh Kemiskinan, Pengangguran dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Darsono, Darsono; Munir Hidayat, Asep; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Wulan Agustini, Anti
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8262

Abstract

One of the main problems of Indonesia’s economy is the relatively low economic growth, which is often hampered by high levels of poverty, unemployment, and inflation. These conditions pose challenges in maintaining stability while promoting sustainable development. Economic growth is an important indicator in assessing the performance of a country’s development, which is influenced by various macroeconomic factors. This study aims to analyze the effect of poverty, unemployment, and inflation on Indonesia’s economic growth, both in the short run and long run. In addition, this research also identifies the adjustment mechanism through the error correction approach and analyzes the causal relationship among variables. The method used is secondary data analysis with a quantitative correlational approach. The model applied is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) based on time series data for the period 2014–2024, processed using EViews 12. The results show that in the long run, inflation has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, with a coefficient value of –0.421 and t-statistic 3.12 > t-table 2.06 at a 5% significance level. Unemployment also has a negative but insignificant effect with a coefficient of –0.178 (t-statistic 1.44 < t-table), while poverty shows no significant effect with a coefficient of –0.095 (t-statistic 1.12 < t-table). In the short run, no significant effect of the three variables on economic growth is found. The error correction term (ECT) value of –0.639 is significant at the 5% level, indicating an adjustment process toward long-run equilibrium. The Granger causality analysis also indicates a bidirectional relationship between inflation and economic growth. These findings emphasize that inflation is a key variable that must be controlled to maintain economic stability and foster long-term growth. Meanwhile, poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction policies need to be strengthened in order to have a more tangible impact on achieving sustainable economic growth.
Pengaruh Roe, Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Pertambangan yang Terdaftar di BEI Ayu Nuryani; Furtasan Ali Yusuf; Kenedi Kenedi
Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan Vol. 4 No. 3 (2025): September: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jimak.v4i3.4921

Abstract

The mining industry has become one of the hopes for the economic advancement of the nation. In the electric vehicle industry, Indonesia's metal and mineral raw material industry also contributes to the supply of raw materials for electric vehicles (EVs). This presents an attractive opportunity for investors to purchase shares in mining companies. This research aims to determine the long-term and short-term effects of Return on Equity (ROE), interest rates, and exchange rates on the stock prices of mining companies in the metal and mineral sub-industry (B146) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period of 2018-2019. The study employs a quantitative method and utilizes data analysis techniques with the assistance of Eviews-12, using a sample of 49 observations. The results indicate that ROE, interest rates, and exchange rates do not have a significant impact on stock prices in the short term. However, ROE and interest rates have a negative effect on stock prices in the long term, while exchange rates have a positive effect on stock prices in the long term.
Pengaruh Total Assets Turnover, Debt to Equity Ratio dan Return on Equity terhadap Harga Saham pada PT Aneka Tambang Tbk yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2015-2024 Denisa Fitriya 'Uzzahra; Furtasan Ali Yusuf; Kenedi Kenedi
Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan Vol. 4 No. 3 (2025): September: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jimak.v4i3.4930

Abstract

The study was designed with the aim of determining the effect of TATO, DER, and ROE variables on stock price variables. A quantitative approach was used in this study, with time series data analysis through a multiple linear regression model based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which was processed using Eviews12 software. The partial results of the TATO variable obtained While the DER variable showed meaning that acceptance of and ROE obtained a stating that was accepted. The results of the study simultaneously showed a In conclusion, TATO, DER, and ROE simultaneously and significantly influence stock price movements. However, TATO was found to have no significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, DER and ROE showed a significant real impact on stock prices.
Pengaruh Current Ratio, Suku Bunga dan Kondisi Finansial Distress terhadap Return Saham pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Subsektor Pulp dan Paper yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2015-2024 Aryati Aryati; Kenedi Kenedi; Furtasan Ali Yusuf
Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan Vol. 4 No. 3 (2025): September: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jimak.v4i3.4932

Abstract

Stock returns serve as a key indicator for maximizing profits and minimizing investment risks. This study aims to examine the effect of Current Ratio, Interest Rate, and Financial Distress on Stock Returns in both the short term and long term for manufacturing companies in the pulp and paper sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2015–2024 period. The research employs a quantitative approach with a sample of 7 companies selected through purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with the assistance of Eviews 12 software. The results show that in the short term, Current Ratio and Interest Rate do not significantly affect Stock Returns, while Financial Distress has a significant effect. In the long term, Current Ratio, Interest Rate, and Financial Distress all have a significant effect on Stock Returns. These findings imply that investors should carefully consider both company fundamentals and external macroeconomic factors when making investment decisions, particularly for long-term investments.
Decision-Making System for Determining Tuition Fees using the Simple Additive Weighting Method Gagah Dwiki Putra Aryono; Kenedi, Kenedi
KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika dan Komputer Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): Februari 2024
Publisher : STMIK Budi Darma

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30865/klik.v4i4.1324

Abstract

This study aims to develop a decision-making system for determining tuition fees using the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method. The SAW method is a multi-criteria decision-making technique that calculates the weighted sum of decision alternative attributes. This system is designed to assist school administration in making decisions related to the determination of tuition fees for students, which is a crucial source of funding for school operations. The system was developed using PHP programming language and MySQL database. This study utilized descriptive research methods and data collection techniques such as interviews, observations, and documentation. The collected data were then analyzed using the SAW method to determine the weight of each attribute and rank the decision alternatives. The system's performance was evaluated using black-box testing methods, and the results indicated that the system exhibited excellent accuracy, reliability, and efficiency. The testing results showed that the developed system can assist school administration in making decisions related to the determination of tuition fees for students. The use of this system can simplify the decision-making process and reduce errors in decision-making, thereby enhancing school operational activities
Co-Authors Ade Idzhar Agisna, Muhamad Agus Irawan Agus Sunardi Agustin, Nungki Ahmad Fatoni Amsilah, Amsilah Anggriawan, Muhammad Angga Anisa Kusumawardani Anisa, Aan Anti Wulan Agustini April Laksana April Laksana Ardiyansah, Ardiyansah Aryati Aryati Aslami, Iron Fajrul Ayu Nuryani Azhar, Intan Nabila Aziza, Pretty Failasufa Basudewa, Meisya Diazzahra Putri Basuki Rakhim Setya Permana Budiman, Dedi Cahya, Kamilah Darsono Darsono Denardo, Denardo Denisa Fitriya 'Uzzahra ENCEP SAEFULLAH, ENCEP Farida, Gina Faturohman Faturohman, Faturohman Fernando, Iqbal Furtasan Ali Yusuf Gagah Dwiki Putra Aryono Gina Farida Hadi Kurniawanto Hanafiyah, Ahmad Adrian Harsiti Harsiti, Harsiti Hidayat, Asep Munir Hilman, Mohamad Indri Yani, Indri Intan Indria Dewi Intan Indria Dewi Irwan Sukmawan Irwan Sukmawan Irwan Sukmawan Khaerudin, Dedy Krahara, Yuwan Ditra Listiani, Mira Listiawati Listiawati Maharani, Adella Miftahul Huda Miftahul Huda Muhammad Angga Anggriawan Mulia, Okvin Mulyani Mulyani Munawaroh Munawaroh Munggaran, Rebion Raga Pramitasari, Anisa Pramono, Abdul Chatim Qotrun Nada, Zanuba Ramadhan, Alfa Riaz Muhammad Khatami Riska Ferdiana Riska Ferdiana Rizki Hidayatullah Rizki Hidayatullah Rozikin, Imam Rudianto Rudianto Rustandi, Tata Sagina, Yunica Marsha Saputri, Desti Sari Ningsih Septiyani, Rini Dwi Setyawati, Kiki Sihotang, Erika Agustiani Siti Hartati Sukmawan, Irwan Tejaarief, Billy Udin Suadma