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PENGARUH PEMILIHAN ARAH ACUAN 00 DAN ARAH ROTASI PADA ANALISIS KORELASI DAN REGRESI LINIER-SIRKULAR (STUDI KASUS: PETA KAWASAN RAWAN BENCANA LETUSAN GUNUNG Abdul Aziz Nurussadad; I Made Sumertajaya; Ahmad Ansori Mattjik
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 16 No. 1 (2011)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

The measurement results doesn't only consist of data with linear attributes, but also data with circular attributes. The circular data has a uniqueness that is not owned by the linear data, circular data is independent of the choice of 0o reference and rotation direction. The uniqueness of circular data analysis is tested in linear circular correlation and linear circular regression. The results of correlation analysis proved that the selection of the reference direction 0o can be done subjectively because the linear circular correlation results show the same value 0.899 for all possible selection of 0o reference and rotation direction. For linear circular regression, the model constructed has a same coefficient of determination that is 0.808 and the same b0, which is 5.231 for all possible selection of 0o reference and rotation direction. Similarly, statistics from the error of linear circular regression analysis have the same value, minimum = -2.693, quartile 1 = -0.835, median = -0.171, quartile 3 = 0.548, maximum = 8.421. Alleged circular linear regression parameters, namely b1 and b2, forming a cycle that each has in common b1 = -1.226 E-07-2.728 cos (α) - 2.655 sin (α) and b2 = 3.061 E-07-2.655 cos (α ) + 2.728 sin (α) where α is the position of the 0o reference direction in degrees on each model.   Keywords :  Directional Statistics, Circular Statistics, Linear-Circular Regression, Linear Circular Correlation
ANALISIS KONJOIN: METODE FULL PROFILE DAN CBC UNTUK MENELAAH PERSEPSI MAHASISWA TERHADAP PILIHAN PEKERJAAN I Made Sumertajaya; Erfiani Erfiani; Windi D.Y Putri
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 12 No. 1 (2007)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

Penggerombolan adalah proses mengelompokkan objek ke dalam kelompok-kelompok yang memiliki kemiripan. Beberapa masalah yang sering dijumpai dalam analisis gerombol yaitu skala pengukuran peubah tidak sama dan jumlah objek besar serta jumlah gerombol tidak diketahui. Salah satu pendekatan untuk menangani masalah ini tanpa mentransformasi peubah-peubah tersebut adalah dengan menggunakan metode Two Step Cluster. Penelitian ini bertujuan sebagai penerapan metode Two Step Cluster dengan menggerombolkan desa/kelurahan yang berada di Jawa Barat. Hasil penggerombolan dengan metode TwoStep Cluster, gerombol awal yang dihasilkan pada tahap pertama adalah sebanyak delapan gerombol, sedangkan gerombol optimal yang dihasilkan pada tahap dua adalah sebanyak tiga gerombol. Gerombol satu tidak dapat dikatakan sebagai suatu gerombol, karena anggota-anggota didalamnya merupakan objek-objek yang memencil ekstrim dan tidak dapat dimasukkan ke dalam gerombol lainnya. Desa/kelurahan yang termasuk gerombol dua memiliki karakteristik pedesaan. Desa/kelurahan tersebut memiliki lahan terluas, jumlah rumah tangga pertanian terbanyak, namun belum berkembang dalam bidang industri serta komunikasi dan informasi. Sehingga untuk meningkatkan potensi desa pada gerombol ini, yang harus diperhatikan adalah peubah-peubah yang tingkat perkembangannya masih rendah. Gerombol tiga memiliki karakteristik desa yang berstatus perkotaan. Desa/kelurahan pada gerombol ini memiliki jarak terdekat ke pusat kota, cukup maju dalam bidang industri, komunikasi dan informasi, namun memiliki angka pengangguran tertinggi.
KLASIFIKASI GENOTIPE PADA DATA TIDAK LENGKAP DENGAN PENDEKATAN MODEL AMMI Ahmad Anshori Mattjik; I Made Sumertajaya; Pika Silvianti
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 12 No. 1 (2007)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

Percobaan multilokasi mempunyai peranan penting dalam perkembangbiakan tanaman dan penelitian agronomi. Kajian mengenai interaksi antara genotipe dan lingkungan diperlukan dalam penyeleksian genotipe yang akan dilepas. Metode statistika yang biasa digunakan untuk mengolah data hasil percobaan multilokasi salah satunya adalah AMMI (Additive Main effect and Multiplicative Interaction).  Metode ini menggabungkan analisis ragam  aditif bagi pengaruh utama perlakuan dengan analisis komponen utama pada pengaruh interaksinya. Pendekatan AMMI juga sangat baik digunakan untuk uji multilokasi tanpa ulangan. AMMI adalah analisis yang membutuhkan data yang lengkap. Jika ada data yang hilang, maka harus dilakukan pendugaan terhadap data tersebut. Pada kasus data tidak lengkap, diperlukan suatu metode pendugaan data untuk mempermudah analisis. Metode yang dapat  digunakan antara lain connected data dan algoritma EM-AMMI untuk menduga data yang tak lengkap.
SURVIVAL ANALYSIS OF CUSTOMER IN POSTPAID TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY Doni Suhartono; Asep Saefuddin; I Made Sumertajaya
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 18 No. 1 (2013)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

Currently, the business competition in mobile telecommunication industry among providers in Indonesia is tighter and it has given rise to a phenomenon of customer defection which has serious consequences for the business performance. In the current circumstances, customers are faced numerous options to be selected that probably cause them at risk to get churn. Therefore, it becomes one of the challenges encountered by Division of Loyalty and Retention to makes the efforts of decreasing customer defection. So that it is important conducting a model of churn practically applied to predict tendency of customer churn and also recognizing the prognostic factors influence customer churn. Survival analysis modelling, such as Cox’s proportional hazard model, was very successful in previous research, which investigatedthe relationship between survival time and possible prognostic factors. Based on the research, Cox’s proportional hazard model of customer lifetime is effective to distinguish relative risk between churn customers and others, and also between which loyal customers and with other short time customers with their significant prognostic factors. Afterwards the simulation of the survival probability estimated over time with particular possible combination of the most significant characteristics affecting tendency of churn, are able to predict such information of lifetime to churn event and compare the survival performance of one another. Finally, the results of this research is able to yield simple, helpful and applicable results as the principle of taking decission for optimizing their customer retention and/or treatment resources in their customer retention efforts for the company.Key words : Churn, Cox’s proportional hazard model, customer retention, survival analysis and telecommunication industry.
PENDUGAAN SELANG KEPERCAYAAN BOOTSTRAP BAGI ARAH RATA-RATA DATA SIRKULAR (Bootstrap Confidence Interval Estimation of Mean Direction for Circular Data) Cici Suhaeni; I Made Sumertajaya; Anik Djuraidah
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 17 No. 2 (2012)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

The confidence interval is an estimator based on the sampling distribution. When the sampling distribution can not be derived from population distribution, the bootstrap method can be used to estimate it. Three methods used to estimate the bootstrap confidence interval for circular data were equal-tailed arc (ETA), symmetric arc (SYMA), and likelihood-based arc (LBA). In this study, three methods were evaluated through simulation study. The most important criterion to evaluate them were true coverage and interval width. The simulation results indicated in all methods, the interval width shortened when the concentration parameter increased. True coverage approached confidence level when the concentration parameter were one or more. For small concentration parameter, all three methods appeared unstable. Based on the true coverage, SYMA was the best, while in terms the interval width, LBA was the best one. For both criterion could be summarized that ETA is the best result. ETA applicated for estimate the period of Dengue Fever outbreaks in Bengkulu. The estimation showed that Dengue Fever outbreaks in 2009 were October through January. In 2010, it were January through March, and in 2011, it were June through September.Keywords : Circular, Bootstrap confidence interval, Equal-tailed arc, Symmetric arc, Likelihood-based arc.
MODELLING OF FORECASTING MONTHLY INFLATION BY USING VARIMA AND GSTARIMA MODELS Andi Setiawan; Muhammad Nur Aidi; I Made Sumertajaya
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 20 No. 2 (2015)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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The model parameters could be different form the well to the factors of time and location. A general model of GSTAR can be used to establish model the inflation in some locations by using GSTARIMA model if time series data is self-contained autoregressive, differentiation, and moving averages. This study examines whether the effect of such locations on the GSTARIMA model is better than the VARIMA model that regardless of the location influences. The aim of this study is to establish two models of inflation six provincial capitals in Java using VARIMA model and GSTARIMA model with inverse distance weighting. Dummy variables have been used to overcome normality and white noise problems. The best forecasting of monthly inflation in provincial captitals in Java Island is GSTAR(1;1) with inverse distance weighting. It has smallest RMSE value of 0.9199.Key words : GSTARIMA, Inverse Distance, RMSE, VARIMA
Determination of Critical Productivity Level on Cluster-Based Area of Rice Crop Insurance in Java Rizqi Haryastuti; Sahat M. Pasaribu; Muhammad N Aidi; I Made Sumertajaya; Valantino A Sutomo; Dian Kusumaningrum; Rahma Anisa
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 39, No 1 (2021): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v39n1.2021.1-13

Abstract

IndonesianKesenjangan tingkat produktivitas padi di Indonesia cukup besar yang di antaranya dipengaruhi oleh luasnya wilayah pertanaman. Hal ini berdampak pada desain dan penerapan model Asuransi Usaha Tani Padi (AUTP) berbasis produktivitas. Perluasan klaster pada tingkat provinsi diperkirakan dapat mengurangi keragaman produktivitas di tingkat wilayah kota/kabupaten sebagai risiko dasar pemanfaatan skema AUTP berbasis klaster. Klaster, sebagai wilayah atau zona, diperlukan untuk menentukan indeks kritis produktivitas yang akurat dalam rangka penghitungan tingkat premi yang tepat. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan tingkat produktivitas kritis pada lahan padi yang menerapkan skema AUTP. Kajian ini menggunakan analisis statistik dengan pendekatan batas bawah Two Sigma yang dapat dianggap sebagai batas produktivitas kritis untuk setiap klaster. Teknik ini memberikan persentase yang rendah atas klaim yang terjadi, serta ekspektasi dan simpangan baku dari risiko dasar kerugian. Tarif premi murni yang diperoleh adalah Rp85.191,18, hampir 2,5 kali lipat lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan menggunakan teknik lain sebagai batas poduktivitas. Hasil kajian ini mengungkapkan bahwa penggunaan skema berbasis klaster lebih baik dari skema berbasis provinsi, sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh nilai TVaR. Kajian ini menyarankan agar Kementerian Pertanian dapat merancang model AUTP berbasis produktivitas berdasarkan klaster dengan setiap klaster memiliki nilai indeks produktivitas kritis yang berbeda untuk menetapkan tingkat premi yang dikenakan.EnglishThere is a large gap in productivity of paddy in Indonesia which is, among others affected by the area size of crop planting. This condition should influence the design and application model of the rice crop insurance scheme. Developing clusters under the province level is recommended to reduce the heterogeneous productivity as basis risk within regencies/municipalities in improving the area yield index of crop insurance policy in Indonesia. Clusters, as the zone, are necessary to determine accurate critical yield index leading to a more precise premium rate making. This study aims to determine critical productivity level on rice crop insurance area. This study applied statistical analysis using the lower bound of Two Sigma as a critical yield for each cluster. This technique provides a small percentage of claim, and the expectation and standard deviation of basis risk loss. The pure premium rate obtained from the analysis is IDR85,191.18, that is almost 2.5 times less than using other methods as trigger productivity. The analysis result emphasized that the use of the cluster-based scheme is better than the province-based as shown by TVaR value. The study suggests that the Ministry of Agriculture could design the area yield index based on clusters as each cluster will have a different critical productivity index with adjusted premium rate value.
Pemilahan Volatilitas Harga Daging Sapi Menggunakan Metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Fitria Hasanah; Hari Wijayanto; I Made Sumertajaya
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 38, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v38n1.2020.41-54

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EnglishStaple food prices include the major determinants of households food security and general inflation. Beef is a basic food which its price is controlled by the Government of Indonesia. This study aims to identify the determinants beef price volatility using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The data was a weekly series of Januari 2006–Desember 2018 obtained from the Ministry of Trade. EEMD extracts data into a number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) that are independent which are then used to forecast beef prices with the ARIMA model. EEMD produced 6 IMFs and one residual. The residual contributed 99.85% to beef price volatility. This means that the long-term trend of beef prices is determined by the residual trends. The EEMD results indicate that the high beef price volatility in certain periods is mainly due to high demand during the Ramadhan month and Idul Fitri, import quota policy, and changes in exchange rates and petroleum prices. The IMF and residual based ARIMA forecasting model obtained MAPE value of 0.42% but with contradicting directions. The Government may use the import quota as a policy instrument for stabilizing the beef price.IndonesianHarga pangan pokok termasuk faktor penentu utama ketahanan pangan rumah tangga dan inflasi umum. Daging sapi adalah salah satu bahan pangan pokok yang harganya dikendalikan Pemerintah Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor penentu volatilitas harga daging sapi dengan metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). EEMD menguraikan data menjadi sejumlah Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) yang saling bebas yang selanjutnya digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan harga daging sapi dengan model ARIMA. Data yang digunakan adalah harga daging sapi mingguan Januari 2006–Desember 2018 yang diperoleh dari Kementerian Perdagangan. EEMD menghasilkan 6 IMF dan satu sisaan. Sisaan IMF memberikan kontribusi sebesar 99,85% terhadap pergerakan harga daging sapi. Artinya bahwa tren jangka panjang harga daging sapi ditentukan oleh tren sisaan. Berdasarkan hasil EEMD, volatilitas harga daging sapi yang tinggi pada periode-periode tertentu dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor terutama tingginya permintaan selama bulan Ramadhan dan Idul Fitri dan kebijakan kuota impor, serta perubahan nilai tukar rupiah dan harga BBM. Model peramalan ARIMA yang diduga berdasarkan IMF dan sisaan IMF menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,42%, namun arah perubahannya tidak bersesuaian. Disarankan agar pemerintah menggunakan kuota impor sebagai salah satu instrumen kebijakan stabilisasi harga daging sapi.
SOCIAL ENTREPRENEUER IN ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE AND ORGANIZATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS IN SUSTAINABILITY OF SEKOLAH PETERNAKAN RAKYAT NGUDI REJEKI KEDIRI Nurus Sabani; Anggraini Sukmawati; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): IJBE, Vol. 6 No. 3, September 2020
Publisher : School of Business, IPB University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/ijbe.6.3.269

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the influence of social entrepreneurs, organizational culture, and organizational effectiveness for the sustainability of the Sekolah Peternakan Rakyat Ngudi Rejeki (SPR). The study population and sample were all members of the Sekolah Peternakan Rakyat Ngudi Rejeki, amounting to 31 SPR members. Interviews and questionnaires did the data collection, and the data was analyzed with the structural equation model - partial least square (SEM-PLS). The results showed that social entrepreneurs have a positive and significant effect on organizational culture, organizational effectiveness, and indirectly on organizational sustainability; organizational culture has a positive and significant effect on organizational effectiveness. Culture has not significantly or indirectly affected sustainability. Organizational effectiveness has not significant effect on organizational sustainability. Keywords: organizational culture, organizational effectiveness, organizational sustainability, Social entrepreneur, SPR
Simultaneous clustering analysis with molecular docking in network pharmacology for type 2 antidiabetic compounds Nur Azizah Komara Rifai; Farit Mochamad Afendi; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Biotechnology Vol 22, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (655.479 KB) | DOI: 10.22146/ijbiotech.27334

Abstract

The database of drug compounds and human proteins plays a very important role in identifying the protein target and the compound in drug discovery. Recently, a network pharmacology approach was established by updating the research paradigm from the current “one disease-one target-one drug” to a new “drug-target-disease network”. Ligand-protein interactions can be analyzed quantitatively using simultaneous clustering and molecular docking. The docking method offers the ability to quickly and cheaply predict the ligand-protein binding free energy (DG) in structure-based virtual screening. Meanwhile, simultaneous clustering was used to find subgroups of compounds that exhibit a high correlation with subgroups of target proteins. This study is focused on the interaction between the 306 compounds from medicinal plants (brotowali Tinospora crispa, ginger Zingiber officinale, pare Momordica charantia, sembung Blumea balsamifera, synthetic drugs (FDA-approved) and the 21 significant human proteins associated with type 2 diabetes. We found that brotowali (B018), sembung (S031), pare (P231), and ginger (J036, J033) were close to the synthetic drugs and can possibly be developed as antidiabetic drug candidates. Likewise, the proteins AKT1, WFS1, APOE, EP300, PTH, GCG, and UBC which assemble each other and which have a high association with INS can be seen as target proteins that play a role in type 2 diabetes.
Co-Authors A Kurnia A. A. Mattjik AA Mattjik Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Abdu Alifah Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Ade Gusalinda Adelia Putri Pangestika Agus Mohamad Soleh Agustin Faradila Ahmad Anshori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Matjjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aidi, Muhammad N Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Alfian Futuhul Hadi Alwani, Nadira Nisa Amanda Permata Dewi Anang Kurnia Andi Setiawan Andrew Donda Munthe Anggraini Sukmawati Anik Djuraidah Arina, Faula Aropah, Vina Da'watul Aropah, Vina Da’watul ASEP SAEFUDDIN Azis, Irfani Bagus Sartono Budi Susetyo Budi Susetyo Choirun Nisa Chrisinta, Debora Cici Suhaeni Cynthia Wulandari Dede Dirgahayu Domiri Dian Kusumaningrum Dian Kusumaningrum Diki Akhwan Mulya Doni Suhartono Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Yulianti Embay Rohaeti Emeylia Safitri Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani, Erfiani Erwina Erwina Evita Choiriyah Fadilah, Anggita Rizky FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Fahriya, Andina Faqih Udin dan Jono M. Munandar Meivita Amelia Farit M Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fitria Hasanah Fitrianto, Anwar Gusti Tasya Meilania Halimatus Sa'diyah Hari Wijayanto Haryastuti, Rizqi Hengki Muradi Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hilda Zaikarina Huda, Usep Firdaus I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Ilham Alifa Azagi Ilma Nabila Imam Adiyana Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Iqbal, Teuku Achmad Irfani Azis Irfani Azis Ismah, Ismah Isti Rochayati Itasia Dina Sulvianti Jamaluddin Rabbani Harahap Jasiulewicz, Anna Jono Mintarto Mundandar Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Kurnia, A Kusdaniyama, Nunung Kusman Sadik Laradea Marifni Lestari P, Merryanty Linda Sakinah M. Syamsul Maarif Ma'mun Sarma Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Mattjik, AA Maulida, Annisaturrahmah Mega Pradita Pangestika Meilania, Gusti Tasya Merryanty Lestari P Mohamad Rhesa Adisty Muhamad Nur Aidi Muhammad Amirullah Yusuf Albasia Muhammad N Aidi Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Ulinnuha Mulianto Raharjo Newton Newton Nina Valentika Ningsih, Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Noercahyo, Unggul Sentanu Novi Hidayat Pusponegoro Nunung Kusdaniyama Nunung Kusdaniyama Nur Hikmah Nurlia Eka Damayanti Nurus Sabani Pasaribu, Sahat M. Pepi Novianti Pika Silvianti Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Pudji Muljono Purwaningsih, Siti Samsiyah Puspasari, Novia Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rizqi Haryastuti Sahat M. Pasaribu Sarah Fadhlia Sarma, Ma’mun Satria Yudha Herawan SATRIYAS ILYAS Setyono Setyono Setyono Sirait, Manuel Leonard Siti Samsiyah Purwaningsih Sri Surjani Tjahjawati Sunardi Sunardi Sunardi Suruddin, Adzkar Adlu Hasyr Sutomo, Valantino A Syafitri, Utami Syella Sumampouw Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulfah Sulistyowati Utami Dyah Syafitri Valantino A Sutomo Valentika, Nina Wibowo, Dwi Yoga Ari Winda Nurpadilah Windi D.Y Putri Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yenni Angraini Zulkarnain, Rizky