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Journal : Quantitative Economics Journal

ANALISIS PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH SETELAH KRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL 2008 Dwita Sakuntala
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 7, No 2 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v7i2.17555

Abstract

At the end of 2008 there was a financial crisis in America that impacted the global economy including Indonesia. This condition causes the movement of the rupiah to weaken following the global economy. The weakening of the rupiah causes, the economic conditions in Indonesia participate weakened. This study aims to determine the effect of money supply, gross domestic income, inflation and interest rates on the rupiah against the US dollar after the 2008 global economic crisis.The basic theory used in this research is the monetary approach theory was developed by Frenkel (1984). The analysis model used is ARCH/GARCH model with Maximum Likelihood estimation method. The empirical result of these research shows that the variable which have positive and significant influence is variable of money supply, and interest rates. Real GDP have negative and significant influence to the exchange rate. While inflation has no effect.
DETERMINANTS OF THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE RUPIAH TO THE AMERICAN DOLLAR AFTER THE CRISIS 2008 Dwita Sakuntala; July Meliza
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 10, No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v10i1.35386

Abstract

AbstractAfter the financial crisis that hit America at the end of 2008, many countries were affected by the decline in the country's economic conditions. This is because America is a country that has large funds that are widely used in several developing countries in the form of portfolio investment and direct investments. As a result of the weakening of the US economy, many foreign investors are attracting investment portfolio funds to strengthen the company's capital in their home countries. So that there was a capital outflow. In Indonesia, one of the indicators that can be seen from the consequences of this crisis is the weakening exchange rate. This article aims to describe the research results of factors that affect the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar after the crisis with the study period Q1.2010 - Q4.2016. ARCH / GARCH is used to form a variable model that has very high volatility in a period and in other periods the volatility is very low. The empirical result shows that the best model is the GARCH (1,1) model with variance regressors is inflation. The variable which has positive and significant influence is the variable of the money supply, and interest rates. Real GDP has a negative and significant influence on the exchange rate. ARCH/GARCH variable is significant. But the inflation variable and regression variant of inflation are not significant. The variable which has positive and significant influence is the variable of the money supply, and interest rates. Real GDP has a negative and significant influence on the exchange rate. ARCH/GARCH variable is significant. But the inflation variable and regression variant of inflation are not significant. The variable which has positive and significant influence is the variable of the money supply, and interest rates. Real GDP has a negative and significant influence on the exchange rate. ARCH/GARCH variable is significant. But the inflation variable and regression variant of inflation are not significant.Thisthe model is passed the classical assumption test.This research model has a higher R2 value than other models.
Co-Authors Addnan Nur Nasution Ade Alison Adela Nursafira Adinda Arafah Afiq Yasfa Assaumi Ritonga Afriza Ulfa Ritonga Agustina, Maulidar Alfarizi Amin Hou Andreas Fourtunando Simanjuntak Andria Zulfa Annisa Syafriani Aqil Muhammad Hsb Arsyaf Tampubolon Aryani, Yuli Aurelia, Gabrella Bagus Hermansyah Barus , Muhammad Arif Bernice Erin Buulolo, Elisabet Mariani Catherine Michelle Samsul Chani Dinayu Cheong Shiau Wie Christin Kacaribu Christina Simanjuntak Christine Junita Daryan Muhsin Hadi Batubara Daulay, Nadia Nurhaliza Dayu Rizki Nurhamda Dea Dellia Debora Natalia Hutagalung Devi ana Sinaga Dhita Adriani Rangkuti Dinda, Lidyana Dini, Siti Dio Pranata Ditiya Puspita Dwi Ananda Eka Martyna Theodora Erinta Sijabat - Fadillah, Rizka Faisal Aqasah Farhan Kaustari Fadia Fauzan Pratama, Muhammad Febti Latreia Missi - Feryanda Feryanda Firdan Fitriani Tobing Fransisca Gozelia Boelova Friska Novi Limbong Helvionita Br Sitepu Hendy Hendy Herosian, Mila Yulia Hizri Al Husein Hutagaol, Lambok Hutri Panjaitan Imelda Krisdamayanti Indah Khairunnisa Sihotang Indaniaty Hasanah Sari Ira Santika Sinaga Iratania, Dian Isyahruna Primadani Jholant B. L Amelia Br. Sinaga Jimmy Kuo July Meliza Justin Novanta Kristian Zai Kelvien Kelvien Kelvin Kosasih Kevin Bambang Setiawan Khairul Akhyar Khairullah, Aulia Khayriza Sinambela Komeel Karisma Kurniawan S., Amri Darma Laia, Sarifin Lambok Hutagaol Lia Nazliana Nasution Lia Nazliana Nasution Lilis Apriyaningsih Lola Irmayunda Lumban Gaol, Sri Futrica Luthfi Hidayat Siregar M Rizky Audiva M. Daffa Raihan Buulolo M. Raihan Amri M. Shabri Abd. Majid Manda Dwipayani Bhastary Masdinar Sihite Masitah Khairani Melinda Melinda Meltry Anggita Sihombing Merry Mhd Akbar Mila Yulia Herosian Mila Yulia Herosian Muhammad Alyaafii Muhammad Ridho Muhammad Sami Rabbani Hutasuhut Mutiara Annisa Najma Azhira Lubis Nanda Syafira Afriyani Nasution, Isna Asdiani Nelsem Ningrum, Eka Milia Ningsih, Nuri Rahayu Nona Lastri Sinurat Nove Rianto Sanjaya Noviana Siska Nur Fadillah Hayati Nursani Alvia Siregar Puput Almiah Br. Sinulangga Purba, Ahmad Fauzan Putri Amirah Hajarani Putri Br Sibarani Putri Husyada Fi’lma - Putri Sari Sihombing Putri Valentine Qoffariani Nur Fadila Raffi Andhera Rafida Khairani Raissa Puan Andrina Randa Wildesta Tambunan Raudah Raudah Rendy Rinardy Ricky Joedani Ridhani, Ridhani Rifyal Alwi Rima Umami Hasibuan Riska Amaliah Rivaldo Rivaldo Rizky Padlan Rizqi Syahdila Ronaldo Sihombing Rosalina Marpaung Rusdianto, Budi Ryan Syahputra Sabilayana Sabilayana Sabilla Cahya Kinanti Sabrina Natasya Matondang Santika, Widia Selfia Putri Johana Eka Ningsih Simatupang Sherly Ogestine Sidabutar, Rizky Ananda Sihite, Ayu Simamora, Manaek Sinaga , Mu’arya Sinaga, Anggiat Sinaga, Putri Yohana Sinaga, Sinta Anna Magdalena Sinurat, Nona Lastri Siregar, Ina Namora Putri Siregar, Kardina Sitepu, Helvionita Br Siti Sara - Sri Futrica Lumban Gaol Sri Indah Siregar Sri Rahmanita Sry Yanti Hutabarat Stephany Suci Ramadhana Suci Ramadhini Suhardina, Suhardina Sulaiman Sidabutar Surita Surita Tanjung , Dava Maulana Thahira, Zia Thalia Anggiani Theodora, Eka Martyna Tiara Ajeng Dewita Timoria, Timoria Tina Novianti Sitanggang Tina Novianti Sitanggang Toni Tutiana Bayati Valensia Yeovin Vina Ramadhani Siregar Vincent Arlonso Willi Ardianto Windi Aulia Yanti Veronika Naibaho Yeni Rafita Sihombing Yolanda Widya Anggreni Situmorang Yovie Ernanda Yunior, Khomeiny Zalmi, Fony Yurika