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Journal : Jurnal Varian

Rainfall Forecasting Using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) Method Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati; Aswi, Aswi; Ahmar, Ansari Saleh
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.4571

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the accuracy and performance of rainfall data forecasting in the city of Parepare using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method. Situated in South Sulawesi Province, Parepare City is characterized by high rainfall intensity, which increases the likelihood of natural hazards such as flooding and landslides. These disasters have the potential to negatively impact key sectors, including economic activity, tourism, and transportation. Therefore, reliable rainfall prediction plays a crucial role in establishing a robust disaster early warning system. Monthly rainfall measurements from two stations, Bukit Harapan and Bulu Dua, are analyzed. The results reveal a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 191.0566 for Bukit Harapan station and 346.023 for Bulu Dua station, underscoring the method's forecasting accuracy. A 12-month forecast predicts consistently high monthly rainfall in Parepare City, with the highest rainfall expected in December 2024 at Bukit Harapan station and in January 2024 at Bulu Dua station. Conversely, the lowest rainfall at both stations is anticipated in July 2024. Forecasts predicting increased rainfall during certain periods, especially in December and January, provide critical insights for strengthening disaster preparedness and informing mitigation strategies. This information also plays a key role in minimizing adverse effects on the economic, transportation, and tourism sectors, while promoting more efficient and sustainable management of water resources.  
Co-Authors Abdullah, Nurhikmawati Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Ali Aspar Mappahya Ananda, Syatirah Rizky Andi Nirwana Widya Ningsih Ardhani, Ahmad Ardiansar, Abdul Mubdi Arif Arif Arifuddin, Abdul Mubdi Ardiansar Aspar M, Ali Astri Amriani, Eka Aswi, Aswi Aulia, Ade Aulia, Aidina Trini Ayu Puspitasari, Ayu Damayanti, Andi Azizah Deus, Theo Eli, Andi Paraqleta Nur Faika Annisya Fattah, Nurfachanti Hadi, Santriani Harpiana Rahman Herman, Nur Taj Alya’ Ikram, Dzul Irmayanti Irmayanti, Irmayanti Irna Diyana Kartika Jannah, Hariratul Khalid, Nur Fadhillah Magfirah, Innaia Mappahya, AliAspar Maricar, Fadillah Moch Erwin Rachman Mochammad Erwin Rachman Mubarak, Andi Firman Muh. Nur Abadi Muhammad Asrul Apris Muis, Malik Fajar Mursyidin, Farhani Amaliyah Nadia, Farah Nadya Nur Aqilah Namirah, Hanna Aulia Nur, Muh Jabal Nurwijayanti Putra, Mardhiyanto Azhary Putra, Wudi Darul Rachman, Ismi Rahil Annisyah Putri D Rahmawati, Rahmawati Rasfayanah, Rasfayanah Rifai, Didit Fachri Safitri, Asrini Sakinah, Nurul Salahuddin, Andi Salsabilla, Andi Batari Samosir, Abdi Dwiyanto Putra Shanty, Meyrna Vidya Sodiqah, Yani Sommeng, Faisal Sri Julyani Sri Wahyu St Haeriyah Bohari Suhestin, Cristy Wanti Sukarna Sukarna Sumarni Sumarni Sumirna, Sumirna Syahruddin, Febie Irsandy Tahir, Akina Maulidhany Trya Maharani, Ratu Utami, Dian Fahmi Widiyastuti, Nanda Febriyanti Wiriansya, Edward Pandu Wisudawan, Wisudawan Wisudawan, Wisudawan Yusuf, Rezky Aulia Z., Nurul Islah Zikrina, Nadya Nur Zulfahmidah, Zulfahmidah