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Saiful Amri
Universitas Serambi Mekkah
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Comparison Of Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain Methods in Forecasting Consumer Price Index in Banda Aceh Syahrini, Intan; Tamimi, Afifah; Zuhra, Rahma; Amri, Saiful; Oktavia, Rini
Transcendent Journal of Mathematics and Applications Vol 4, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Syiah Kuala University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24815/tjoma.v4i1.46243

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is utilized to determine a country's inflation and deflation rate. Inflation decreases the buying power of consumers; meanwhile, continuous deflation will lead to a recession. characterized by a stagnant economy and a diminished willingness among manufacturers to innovate. The CPI trends serve as a valuable economic indicator and a standard for manufacturing costs that reflect price fluctuations at the consumer level for specific goods and services. This study aims to forecast the CPI in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, utilizing CPI data in the region from January 2017 to October 2022 by applying the Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain methods. Forecasting accuracy is assessed by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The Fuzzy Time Series Chen method obtained a MAPE of 2.98% and an MAE of 3.64, whereas the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method attained a MAPE of 1.07% and an MAE of 1.27. This indicates that the predicting accuracy of the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain surpasses that of Chen's Fuzzy Time Series, leading to the conclusion that CPI forecasting in Banda Aceh City utilizing the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain approach is more precise.
Co-Authors Adrianda, Irsan Agus Pratama Agustiar Al Zuhri ambartiasari, Geta Anhar Fazri Anhar Fazri Arif Iskandar Armaini ' Armila Armila Asgha, Ashabul Yamin Asmaul Husna Aulia Rivaldi Baren, Maria Besri Nasrul Cut Asmaul Husna, Cut Asmaul Damanik, Dieny Ahda Darmawan Darmawan Desi Maulida Dewi Andriany Dimas Mandala PUTRA Fahmi Arfan Firman Fithroh Roshinah Roshinah Fitriliana Fitriliana Fitriliana Futri Syam Hafnani Hafnani hanifah hanifah Hanim, Safiatun Ira Damayanti Ismawati, Tri Jamalia, Jamalia Juwita Kasmaniar Kasmaniar Kasmaniar Laila Nursaliha lovita, Fantia Lutfan Milzam, Ahmad M Djamil Mahmudi Mahmudi Manovri Yeni Mariati Mariati MARIATI MARIATI Marlina Marlina Marlina Maulana Akbar, Rian Maulina Maulina, Maulina Mawaddarahmah, Mawaddarahmah Miftahurrahmah Miftahurrahmah, Miftahurrahmah Muhamad Ikbal Muhammad Ikhwan Mujiburrahman Mujiburrahman Mukhdasir Murida, Eva Muzakkir Nuzakkir Nurdin, Hanifah NURFARI Nurfiani Syamsuddin Nuril Fahdi, Nuril Nurmaulidar Nurmaulidar Nuzakkir, Muzakkir Oktavia, Rini Pasaribu, Sri Rizki Aprilianti Pratama, Agus Prayogo, Satrio Ajie Purnawan, Sastra Putri Mauliza, Putri Putri, Noni Radhiah, Radhiah RADHIANA RADHIANA, RADHIANA Rahma Zuhra Safitri, Yuni Ayu Saiful Samsul Ikhbar Samsul Ikhbar Sanjaya, Lilo Sarboini SARBOINI SARBOINI SARBOINI Sarboini Sarboini, Sarboini Sempena, Iwan Doa Siti Rusdiana Sudarman Sudarman Susanti Syafira, Nurul Syahrini, Intan Syamsuddin, Nurfiani Syamsul Rizal Syamsul Rizal Syamsul Rizal Tamimi, Afifah Taufik Hidayat Taufik Hidayat Usman, Tarmizi Wardani, Zakiatul Yuni, Syarifah Meurah Yusuf, Zulfan Zuhri, Al Zulfan Yusuf