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ESTIMATING AND FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN SULAWESI ISLAND USING GENERALIZED SPACE-TIME AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL Sukarna Sukarna; Nurul Fadilah Syahrul; Wahidah Sanusi; Aswi Aswi; Muhammad Abdy; Irwan Irwan
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 15, No 2 (2022): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.15.2.186-197

Abstract

A range of spatio-temporal models has been used to model Covid-19 cases. However, there is only a small amount of literature on the analysis of estimating and forecasting Covid-19 cases using the Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA) model. This model is a development of the GSTARMA model which has non-stationary data. This paper aims to estimate and forecast the daily number of Covid-19 cases in Sulawesi Island using GSTARIMA models. We compared two models namely GSTARI and GSTIMA considering the root mean square error (RMSE). Data on a daily number of Covid-19 cases (from April 10, 2020, to May 07, 2021) were used. The location weight used is the inverse distance weight based on the distance between airports in the capital cities of each province. The appropriate models obtained based on the data are the GSTARIMA (1;0;1;1) model and the GSTARIMA (1;1;1;0) model. The results showed that the forecast for the number of new Covid-19 cases is accurate and reliable only for the short term.
Analisis Kerapatan Mangrove Menggunakan Metode NDVI di Kawasan Mangrove Untia Kota Makassar Amal Arfan; Wahidah Sanusi; Muhammad Rakib
Jurnal Environmental Science Vol 5, No 2 (2023): April
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI MAKASSAR

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jes.v5i2.45308

Abstract

ABSTRAKHutan mangrove adalah salah satu ekosistem yang penting. Hutan mangrove yang masih eksis di Kota Makassar adalah kawasan mangrove Untia. Penelitian ini bertujuan  mengetahui tingkat kerapatan vegetasi kawasan mangrove Untia. Teknik pengambilan sampel dengan purposif sampling pada beberapa titik hutan mangrove dan wawancara pada informan. Data utama yang digunakan adalah citra Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS dan data sekunder berupa berkas atau penelitian terdahulu terkait studi kajian dan lokasi penelitian. Teknik analisis yang dilakukan adalah Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dapat diketahui bahwa terdapat 6 penggunaan lahan pada lokasi penelitian yaitu mangrove, kawasan terbangun, tambak, belukar, tubuh air dan lahan kosong, luas kawasan mangrove Untia 48,19 ha. Adapun luas mangrove berdasarkan kerapatan diantaranya mangrove dengan kerapatan jarang seluas 10,40 ha, mangrove dengan kerapatan sedang seluas 3,08 ha dan mangrove dengan kerapatan rapat seluas 34,71 ha.
Orde Optimum Model Rantai Markov Curah Hujan Kabupaten Gowa Wahidah Sanusi; Alimuddin Alimuddin; Syafruddin Side
Seminar Nasional LP2M UNM SEMINAR NASIONAL 2022 : PROSIDING EDISI 2
Publisher : Seminar Nasional LP2M UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (319.161 KB)

Abstract

Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan orde optimum model rantai Markov curah hujan harian kabupaten Gowa, dan juga untuk mendapatkan nilai peluang transisi kategori curah hujan harian. Untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut telah digunakan data jumlah curah hujan harian (mm) periode Januari 1996 sampai Desember 2020 dari empat stasiun curah hujan di kabupaten Gowa, yaitu stasiun Sungguminasa, stasiun Bontosallang, stasiun Tinggimae Boka, dan stasiun Sanrobone. Data tersebut diperoleh dari Dinas Sumber Daya Air, Cipta Karya, dan Tata Ruang, Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Model yang digunakan adalah model rantai Markov dua state. State yang digunakan adalah tidak hujan dan hujan. Untuk mendapatkan orde optimum diujicobakan sampai orde kelima. Orde optimum diperoleh berdasarkan nilai BIC yang minimum. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa orde optimum model rantai Markov dua state yang diperoleh adalah orde empat untuk semua stasiun hujan kajian di kabupaten Gowa. Model rantai Markov orde empat ini berarti bahwa peluang terjadinya hujan atau tidak pada esok hari akan dipengaruhi oleh keadaan hujan hari ini dan tiga hari sebelumnya.   Kata Kunci: BIC, Curah Hujan, Orde, Rantai Markov, State
Profil Karakteristik Curah Hujan Kota Makassar Wahidah Sanusi
Seminar Nasional LP2M UNM 2017
Publisher : Seminar Nasional LP2M UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (497.667 KB)

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui gambaran profil karakteristik curah hujan kota Makassar. Karakteristik tersebut meliputi frekuensi dan durasi keadaan basah dan kering berdasarkan Indeks Presipitasi Terstandarisasi. Data yang digunakan adalah data curah hujan bulanan untuk periode 1985-2014 dari empat stasiun hujan di kota Makassar. Empat stasiun hujan tersebut adalah stasiun Meteorologi Maritim Paotere, stasiun Biring Romang Panakkukang, stasiun BBMKG wilayah IV Panaikang dan stasiun Ujung Pandang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada umumnya keadaan cuaca kota Makassar berada dalam kategori normal sepanjang periode kajian. Sementara durasi keadaan basah maupun keadaan kering berlangsung selama sebulan untuk semua stasiun kajian. Kata kunci: curah hujan, durasi, frekuensi, Indeks Presipitasi Terstandarisasi
Penggunaan metode L-moment dalam pemodelan hujan harian maksimum Kota Makassar Wahidah Sanusi; Muhammad Abdy; Syafruddin Side
Seminar Nasional LP2M UNM Prosiding Edisi 3
Publisher : Seminar Nasional LP2M UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (602.994 KB)

Abstract

Evaluation of maximum rainfall events is important in the management and planning of water sources which, among others, aim to design a drainage system and abundant water storage. This evaluation can be done through estimation of design rainfall. This rain design is very dependent on the type of distribution of opportunities for rain. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify the maximum distribution of rainfall opportunities in the city of Makassar using the L-Moment method. This method provides information about the size of the location, size of the spread, skewness and kurtosis of the distribution of probability data samples. The data used in this study is the annual maximum daily rainfall data of the Paotere Maritime Meteorology rain station in Makassar in the period 1985-2017. This station is selected based on the completeness and length of the data. Based on the good of fit distribution model, it was found that rainfall at the Paotere Maritime Meteorological Station followed the distribution of Generalized Logistics. The results of this study can then be used to estimate design rainfall
Penerapan Model ARIMA terhadap Kebutuhan Jumlah Vaksin Booster COVID-19 di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Rahmat Syam; Wahidah Sanusi; Muhammad Abdy; Muhammad Farhan
Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Volume 5, Nomor 1, 2023
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31605/jomta.v5i1.2751

Abstract

Penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia pada tahun 2019 sangat tinggi, salah satu wilayah dengan angka terinfeksi tertinggi ialah di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Sikap yang diambil pemerintah dalam menanganinya yaitu dengan memberikan vaksin ke seluruh wilayah Indonesia. Vaksin yang diberikan terdiri atas dua yaitu vaksin primer dan vaksin Booster. Pemberian vaksin Booster COVID-19 membuat masyarakat berpikir apakah memang dibutuhkan?. Oleh karena itu dibutuhkan suatu model peramalan untuk meramalkan kebutuhan jumlah vaksin Booster COVID-19 di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bentuk pemodelan data jumlah vaksin Booster COVID-19 di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan menggunakan model ARIMA, diawali dengan pengecekan kestasioneran data, identifikasi model dugaan, estimasi dan uji parameter, uji asumsi residual, pemilihan model terbaik, peramalan, dan uji ketepatan peramalan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik pada peramalan kebutuhan jumlah vaksin Booster COVID-19 di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan adalah model ARIMA (1,1,0) dengan nilai ketepatan peramalan menggunakan MAPE sebesar 1.38%.
Analisis Kerapatan Mangrove dan Keanekaragaman Makrozoobenthos di Kawasan Ekowisata Mangrove Lantebung Kota Makassar Amal Arfan; Wahidah Sanusi; Muhammad Rakib
Journal of Marine Research Vol 12, No 3 (2023): Journal of Marine Research
Publisher : Departemen Ilmu Kelautan, Fakultas PerikanJurusan Ilmu Kelautan, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/jmr.v12i3.38060

Abstract

Ekosistem mangrove berada dalam posisi yang mengkhawatirkan karena ekosistem tersebut terancam mengalami penurunan kualitas dan kuantitas. Sementara ekosistem mangrove memiliki peran penting dalam menjaga keseimbangan ekologis dan menyediakan berbagai manfaat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kerapatan mangrove dan keanekaragaman makrozoobenthos di kawasan ekowisata mangrove Lantebung, Makassar. Penelitian dilakukan dengan mengaplikasikan sistem informasi geografis yakni analisis citra pengindraan jauh menggunakan metode Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), selanjutnya dilakukan ground check yaitu survei lapangan untuk mengidentifikasi keanekaragaman dan kelimpahan jenis mangrove dan makrozoobenthos. Secara umum, kerapatan mangrove di lokasi penelitian tergolong lebat, dan sebagian kecil kerapatan sedang. Nilai kerapatan tertinggi sebesar 0,63 ind/m2, sedangkan nilai terendah sebesar 0,42 ind/m2. Jenis mangrove yang terdapat di lokasi penelitian diantaranya Rhizopora mucronata, Rhizopora apiculata, Brugaria gymnorhiza, Avicennia marina, Avicennia alba, dan Sonneratia alba. Rhizophora mucronata menjadi spesies mangrove yang paling dominan, sedangkan Sonneratia alba merupakan yang paling sedikit ditemukan pada lokasi penelitian. Makrozoobenthos yang hidup di ekosistem tersebut cukup beragam dan berlimpah, paling dominan ditemukan Uca sp. (kelas crustacea). Muara sungai merupakan area dengan kerapatan mangrove yang paling tinggi serta area yang paling banyak hidup makrozoobenthos. Ekosistem mangrove di Lantebung masih tergolong sehat dan perlu dijaga agar tetap lestari. Analisis kerapatan mangrove dan keanekaragaman makrozoobenthos penting untuk mendukung pemanfaatan ekosistem mangrove salah satunya pengembangan ekowisata mangrove yang berkelanjutan.  Mangrove ecosystems are in a worrying position because they are threatened by a decline in quality and quantity. While mangrove ecosystems have an important role in maintaining ecological balance and providing various benefits. This study aims to analysis mangrove density and macrozoobenthos diversity in the Lantebung mangrove ecotourism area, Makassar. The research was conducted by applying geographic information systems, namely remote sensing image analysis using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) method, followed by ground checks, namely field surveys to identify the diversity and abundance of mangrove species and macrozoobenthos. In general, the density of mangroves in the study site is classified as dense, and a small portion of moderate density. The highest density value was 0.63 ind/m2 while the lowest value was 0.42 ind/ m2. Mangrove species found in the study site include Rhizopora mucronata, Rhizopora apiculate, Brugaria gymnorhiza, Avicennia marina, Avicennia alba, and Sonneratia alba.  Rhizopora mucronata became the most dominant mangrove species, while Sonneratia alba was the least occupying the study site. Macrozoobenthos that live in the ecosystem are quite diverse and abundant, most dominantly found Uca sp. (crustacean class). The estuary is an area with the highest mangrove density and the most macrozoobenthos. The mangrove ecosystem in Lantebung is still relatively healthy and needs to be maintained to remain sustainable. Analysis of mangrove density and macrozoobenthos diversity is important to support the utilization of mangrove ecosystem, one of which is the development of sustainability mangrove ecotourism.
Pengelolaan Administrasi Tabungan dan Kredit pada PT. Bank Perkreditan Rakyat Sulawesi Mandiri Reski Andini; Lisca Palerina; Wahidah Sanusi; Rosidah Rosidah; Ilham Minggi
Jurnal Hasil-Hasil Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024): Volume 03 Nomor 01 (April 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jhp2m.v3i1.2181

Abstract

PT. Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) Sulawesi Mandiri merupakan salah satu bank swasta yang bergerak dalam bidang usaha menghimpun dana masyarakat berupa tabungan, deposito dan menyalurkan dana tersebut kepada masyarakat dalam bentuk kredit. Tujuan dari kegiatan ini adalah untuk mengetahui proses pembukaan buku tabungan dan proses pemberian kredit. Tujuan ini sangat bermanfaat bagi masyarakat umum terutama para pelaku Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM). Metode yang digunakan adalah metode observasi dan wawancara, serta analisa deskriptif. Lokasi kegiatan di BPR Sulawesi Mandiri kota Makassar. Hasil dari kegiatan ini memberikan pemahaman kepada masyarakat terkait proses pembukaan buku tabungan dan pemberian kredit pada BPR Sulawesi Mandiri. Kesimpulan dari kegiatan ini adalah proses pembukaan buku tabungan dimulai dari nasabah yang memenuhi seluruh persyaratan seperti fotokopi kartu identitas, fotokopi Kartu Keluarga, dan lain-lain. Sementara untuk proses pemberian kredit dimulai dari pengajuan kredit, penyidikan dan analisa kredit, keputusan kredit, pencairan kredit dan pelunasan kredit, serta terdapat dokumen penting terkait kredit seperti surat permohonan pinjaman, hasil survey calon debitur, persetujuan pinjaman, berita acara serah terima jaminan dan surat perjanjian pinjaman.
Pengembangan Perangkat Kooperatif Tipe NHT Berbasis Pendekatan Ilmiah pada Materi Asam Basa untuk Meningkatkan Sikap Ilmiah dan Hasil Belajar Kognitif Peserta Didik Hasnawiyah, Hasnawiyah; Danial, Muhammad; Sanusi, Wahidah
Chemistry Education Review (CER) Volume 4 Nomor 2 Maret 2021
Publisher : Program Pasca Sarjana UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (466.665 KB) | DOI: 10.26858/cer.v4i2.20150

Abstract

The use of the right tools greatly determines the success of achieving the competence of students in learning. Learning tools that tend to be monotonous make students less actively involved in learning and less improve scientific attitudes and learning outcomes. The development of Chemistry learning tools based on a scientific approach in NHT model is expected to be effective in the classroom and help students in learning Chemistry. This development research aims to: 1) describe the development process of producing cooperative learning tools of NHT type based on a scientific approach; and 2) produce cooperative learning tools of NHT type based on scientific approaches that are valid, practical, and effective to improve scientific attitudes and learning outcomes on Acid-Base learning material. This research consists of the stages of defining (define), design, development, and dissemination (disseminate). The product developed was tested on students of class XI MIPA.3 at SMAN 8 Gowa of academic year 2019/2020. The product validity was tested by two expert assessors. This research includes the steps of the NHT model, namely preparation, group formation, problem discussion, calling the Member Number or Giving Answers, giving conclusions, and giving awards. The stages of this chemistry learning tool also refer to the scientific attitude approach that applies 5M, namely observing, asking, trying, associating/processing information/logic,and communicating to improve scientific attitudes and learning outcomes of students. The results of the study obtained: 1) the average value of product validity 3.76 (very valid); 2) scientific attitude questionnaire data = 3.07 (high); 3) THB's average N-Gain result is 0.83 (high); 4) teachers and students showed a very positive response with a percentage of 95.84% and 82.81%. Therefore, the conclusion of the study is the Chemistry learning tools based on the scientific approach in NHT model that had been developed in Chemistry learning on Acid-Base learning materials are valid, practical, and effective to improve the scientific attitude and learning outcomes of students.
Pengembangan E-Modul pada Materi Koloid untuk Meningkatkan Kemampuan Berpikir Kreatif Peserta Didik Wahyuliani, Dwi; Danial, Muhammad; Sanusi, Wahidah
Chemistry Education Review (CER) Volume 5 Nomor 2 Maret 2022
Publisher : Program Pasca Sarjana UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (402.491 KB) | DOI: 10.26858/cer.v5i2.32732

Abstract

This study is a research and development that aims to develop electronic modules using Flip PDF Professional on colloid material to improve students' creative thinking skills that are valid, practical, and effective to be used. The development model used refers to the ADDIE development model which consists of 5 stages, namely analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation. The electronic module developed using Flip PDF Professional software had been validated by material expert and media expert and had gone through a trial phase to produce a valid, practical, and effective Colloid Chemistry electronic module. The Colloid Chemistry E-module product made with Flip PDF Professional is attractively designed because it contains colloid learning video and animation, and is practical in its use because students can easily access it on their respective androids without having to use additional applications. The subjects in this study were students of grade XI MIPA 3 at UPT SMAN 2 Parepare City. The results show that the Colloid Chemistry electronic module developed using Flip PDF Professional software obtained 88.5% validity by material expert and 86.12% validity percentage by media expert, so the validator criteria for the electronic module obtained as valid. The Colloid Chemistry electronic module developed using Flip PDF Professional software is stated to be practical because the practicality test obtained an average of 3.625 with practical criteria from the results of teacher’s responses and an average of 3.772 from students’ responses with practical criteria. The electronic product of the Colloidal Chemistry module also meets the effectiveness criteria based on the test result of students' creative thinking skills after using the developed colloid chemistry module, where students' creative thinking skills are dominated at level 3, namely creative.
Co-Authors A. Armansyah AHMAD FAUZAN RIDHA SUJIONO ahmad yani Ahmad Zaki Ahmad Zaki AHMAD ZAKI Ahmad Zaky Alimuddin Alimuddin Tampa Amal Amal Amal Amal Amal Arfan, Amal Amni Rasyidah Andi Abidah Andi Diki Nurbaldatun Islam Andini, Reski Anggi Ananda Putri Annas, Suwardi Arkas, Amaliah Nurul Asdar Asdar Asdar Asmi, Nurul Asni, Asriani Arsita Asriani Arsita Asni Astuti - Aswi, Aswi Aswi, Aswi Aulia, Hikma Awi Dassa, Awi Beby Fitriani Besse Nur Afni Besse Nur Afni Bohari, Nurul Aulia Bohari, Nurul Aulia Diki Nurbaldatun Islam Elma Selviana Darwis Febriyanto Saman Fitriyani Fitriyani Fitriyani Folorunso, Serifat Adedamola H. Hasriani Haekal, Muh. Fahri Hafilah Hardiono Hafilah. H Harisahani, Nur Hasan Basri Hasanah, Afifatun Hasnawiyah, Hasnawiyah Hasriani Hikma Aulia Hisyam Ihsan Ihsan U, Wa Irma Al Ika Pratiwi Ilham Minggi Irham Aryandi Basir Irham Aryandi Basir Irma Aswani Ahmad, Irma Aswani Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Janide, Anugrah Kahvi Nurani Kaito, Nurlaila Katrina Pareallo Lisca Palerina Mudinillah, Adam Muh. Idris Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Arif Tiro, Muhammad Arif Muhammad Danial Muhammad Danial Muhammad Danial Muhammad Farhan Muhammad Isbar Pratama Muhammad Rakib Muhammad Rakib Muhammad Rakib Muhammad Syahrir Muhjria, Muhjria Mukarram, Trys Musliati Musliati Mustati'atul Waidah Maksum N Nurfadillah N Nurwakia Nasrullah Nasrullah Nirwana, St. Risma Ayu Nur Anny S. Taufieq Nur Anny S. Taufieq Nur Anny S. Taufieq Nur Anny Suryaningsih Taufieq Nur Fajri Setiawan Nur Hikmayanti Syam Nur Khaerati Rustan Nur Ridiawati Nur Ridiawati Nurani, Kahvi Nurazizah Nurdin, Nur Izzah Nurfadillah Nurhilaliyah, Nurhilaliyah Nurul Aulia Bohari Nurul Fadilah Syahrul Nyulle, Rusdianto Oktaviana Oktaviana Padjalangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Palarungi, Andi Gagah Patasik, Ghadytha Marie Lucia Pertiwi, Ika Pince Salempa Putri, Siti Choirotun Aisyah R. Rusli Rabiatul Adawiyah Rabiatul Adawiyah Rahman, Muhammad Fatur Rahmat Setiawan Rahmat Syam Rahmawati, Rahmawati Reski Andini Risna Ulfadwiyanti Rosidah Rosidah Ruliana Rustan, Nur Khaerati S Sukmawati Sahlan Sidjara Saiful Bahri Saiful Bahri Saman, Febriyanto Sari, Yulfiana Serly Diliyanti Restu Ningsih Serly Diliyanti Restu Ningsih Setiawan, Nur Fajri Sidjara, Sahlan Siti Helmyati Sudarmin Sudarmin Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sulaiman Sulaiman Suwardi Annas Syafruddin Side SYahnur, Andi Aulia Syuhri, Ajrian Takdir, Nurfajri Hamdani Talib, Dr. Ahmad Tampa, Alimuddin Taty Sulastri Taty Sulastri Taty Sulastri Thaha, Irwan Trys Mukarram Ulfadwiyanti, Risna Usman Mulbar Utami Priono Wahyuliani, Dwi Wahyuni, Maya Sari Wulandari, Natalia Puspita Yusuf S.A.P., Andi Muh. Ridho