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Risk Management in Facing Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Pertamina's Profitability Rastanura, Yudha; Priyarsono, Dominicus Savio; Ramadyanto , Widodo
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science Vol. 4 No. 11 (2025): Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/ijoms.v4i11.1169

Abstract

This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables on the financial performance of PT Pertamina (Persero), a strategic Indonesian state-owned energy company (Badan Usaha Milik Negara/BUMN). Using time series data from 2005 to 2023, the research applies an econometric model examine relationship of macroeconomic variables between exchange rate, inflation, Bank Indonesia interest rate (BI Rate), and international crude oil prices (ICP) with corporate financial performance (Return on Equity/ROE and Return on Assets/ROA). Quantitative analysis is enhanced Montecarlo Simulation to model financial uncertainty and macroeconomic stress testing (moderate, pessimistic, optimistic scenarios). This study also integrates the risk management framework to construct a proses of risk management, and formulate data-driven risk mitigation strategies. The research is expected to contribute to the development of risk-informed financial management strategies based on econometric analysis and to serve as a reference for other BUMN in managing macroeconomic uncertainty.
The effects of dynamics and information structures on the solution of conflicts in the global economic and trading system PRIYARSONO, D. S.
MILANG Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 1 No. 1 (2002): Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : School of Data Science, Mathematics and Informatics, IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jmap.1.1.13-23

Abstract

This article exemplifies the application of mathematical (game theoretic) modeling to describe economic phenomenon, i.e., conflicts within the global trading system. The main proposition of this article is that broadening time horizon and promoting information exchange between the parties in conflicts will result in cooperative solution.
Penetapan Tarif Optimal dengan Model Permainan Stackelberg LESMANA, D. C.; PRIYARSONO, D. S.; HANUM, F.
MILANG Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 1 No. 1 (2002): Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : School of Data Science, Mathematics and Informatics, IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jmap.1.1.41-48

Abstract

Tarif dapat digunakan untuk mencegah industri asing melakukan praktik- praktik untuk menarik keuntungan atas industri domestik yang menyebabkan penurunan pendapatan nasional. Jika pasar suatu negara adalah oligopolistik maka ada dua akibat tarnbahan dari penurunan tarif yang cenderung mengu- rangi kesejahteraan negara. Pertarna, jika produsen asing mempunyai keku- atan pasar, maka negara pengimpor mernbayar dengan harga yan.g lebih tinggi daripada biaya marjinal. Derrgan mernberlakukan tarif, negara dapat rnerrgam- bil sebagian surplus monopolis. Kedua, proteksi monopolis domestik meng- hasilkan keuntungan. Sebagian keuntungan ini akan mengalir ke perusahaan asing setelah penurunan tarif. Hal ini mengakibatkan penurunan kesejahte- raan negara.
Halal Detection Kit Production: Economic Feasibility and Risk-Based Investment Planning Sigit, Arief Muhammad; Priyarsono, Dominicus Savio; Jahroh, Siti
Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship Vol. 11 No. 3 (2025): IJBE, Vol. 11 No. 3, September 2025
Publisher : School of Business, IPB University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/ijbe.11.3.746

Abstract

Background: Background: Indonesia’s halal industry offered strong growth potential, yet investment in halal detection tools remained limited. Strengthening this sector could improve independence and competitiveness in domestic biotechnology.Purpose: The study evaluates the financial feasibility of investing in the development of halal detection kit products and integrates risk management to enhance decision-making in biotechnology investments.Design/methodology/approach:  A quantitative analysis was conducted using primary data (semi-structured interviews with PT XYZ’s management and company financial statements) and secondary data (literature, market reports, and internal documents). Investment feasibility was assessed through Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PBP). Monte Carlo simulations were applied to model uncertainty and integrate risk analysis into the NPV-at-Risk framework.Findings/Result: The study results show that the investment in developing halal detection kit products is economically feasible, as indicated by a positive NPV, an IRR above the discount rate, and a relatively short PBP. Monte Carlo simulations highlight the sensitivity of investment profitability to fluctuations in raw material prices and currency exchange rates, emphasizing the importance of effective risk management strategies.Conclusion: PT XYZ can reduce cost risk by collaborating with local partners to increase the Domestic Component Level (TKDN) and minimize reliance on imported raw materials affected by currency fluctuations. Implementing risk mitigation strategies based on the NPV-at-Risk method can optimize operations, improve cost efficiency, and expand market reach.Originality/value (State of the art):  This research combined financial feasibility with risk-based analysis using the NPV-at-Risk method in biotechnology. Keywords: biotechnology, risk-based investment, halal detection kit, risk management, Monte Carlo simulation
The Factors of Decision in Taking Tertiary Education Lailiyah, Alfi Nur; Priyarsono, Dominicus Savio; Probokawuryan, Mutiara
AFEBI Economic and Finance Review Vol. 2 No. 2 (2017): December
Publisher : Asosiasi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47312/aefr.v2i02.93

Abstract

The decision to access tertiary education is influenced by individual characteristics, household characteristics, and regional factors. This study aimed to examine the determinant of  individual decision to access tertiary education based on individual characteristics, household characteristics, and regional factors. The respondents of the study were 19 years old or above and already finished secondary education. This study used secondary data from data Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 5. Technique analysis used multinominal logit by samples that consist of 1.936 respondent. The result of this analysis showed that the individual characteristic that consist of UN score, Sex, and Occupational status while study has significant impact on the choice to access undergraduate study. Likewise, on the household characteristics that consist of educational assistance from non government, level of education of  head of household, and the consumption per member of the family has significant impact to the choice to access diploma. In undergraduate education, only the UN score in individual characteristic that has significant impact. The household characteristics were consist of educational assistance from government and non-government, the level of education of head of household, the consumption per member of the family, and dependency ratio impact significantly on the choice to access undergraduate study.JEL Classification: I20, I21, I25Keywords: Household Characteristics, Individual Characteristics, Indonesia Family Life Survey, Multinomial Logit, Regional Factors, Tertiary Education
IMPACT OF EDUCATION TO HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD IN INDONESIA Prabowo, Maudytia Rismalasari; Priyarsono, Dominicus Savio; Probokawuryan, Mutiara
AFEBI Economic and Finance Review Vol. 3 No. 1 (2018): June
Publisher : Asosiasi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47312/aefr.v3i1.639

Abstract

Poverty is one of the most crucial problems in Indonesia which is the fifth city in South-East Asia, have a poverty line around 11.2% in 2014 (BPS 2016). Moreover, poverty in Indonesia has decreased slowly from 2000 (19.1%) until 2016 (10.9%) (Smeru, 2015). It means poverty in Indonesia should be accelerated the decline. One of the things that can reduce poverty is education (Gounder and Xing 2012). Education has a relationship with household consumption per capita. That means, the higher the education of household head, the higher the consumption per capita that household get. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of education on poverty as measured by household's consumption in West Indonesia in 2014. This study uses Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) methods with cross-section data and obtained from IFLS (Indonesia Family Life Survey). The result shows that there is a relationship between education and other independent variables on poverty. The independent variables that significantly affect poverty are age, age squared, gender, and marital status. The implication of this study is education can increase the number of consumption per capita so that the living standard will increase and poverty will decrease.JEL Classification: I20, I21, I25Keywords: consumption per capita, cross section, education, Two Stage Least Square, poverty.
Pengaruh Jangkauan Terhadap Keberlanjutan Keuangan BPJS Ketenagakerjaan Pasaribu, Andri Ronaldo; Novianti, Tanti; Priyarsono, Dominicus Savio
Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen Vol. 8 No. 3 (2022): JABM Vol. 8 No. 3, September 2022
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jabm.8.3.868

Abstract

BPJS Ketenagakerjaan has a function to provide social security for employees who work in Indonesia, both Indonesian citizens and foreign citizens, including Indonesian migrant workers. BPJS Ketenagakerjaan participation in Indonesia is mandatory by law, but based on internal data of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (2021) there are still many workers who have not become participants. Therefore, outreach is needed by BPJS Ketenagakerjaan to implement its function. Where 99,9% of participants and prospective participants are workers who work in micro, small and medium scale enterprises (MSMEs). This study aims to analyze the effect of outreach on the financial sustainability of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan and to describe whether there is a trade-off or compatible. This study uses secondary data in the form of a cross-section consisting of 122 BPJS Ketenagakerjaan main branch offices in Indonesia in 2018. The analytical method used in this study is the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The outreach carried out by BPJS Ketenagakerjaan has effect on its financial sustainability. It can be concluded that there is a trade-off between outreach and the financial sustainability of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan. This indicates that when BPJS Ketenagakerjaan wants to maintain its financial sustainability, it will reduce the outreach of services and potential participants. Keywords: outreach, financial sustainability, BPJS ketenagakerjaan, social security, Indonesia
Analysis of Risk Management Implementation in A Holding Company: Infrastructure, Resources, and Risk Management Governance Hasan, Hasbiyallah; Priyarsono, Dominicus Savio; Ramadyanto, Widodo
Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting (September - O
Publisher : Dinasti Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.38035/dijefa.v5i4.3148

Abstract

X is a state-owned enterprise operating as a holding company across various industries. In 2022, X's total consolidated assets reached Rp 49.1 trillion, encompassing financial services, industrial estates, construction, water management, media, and technology. The expansion into a conglomerate brings challenges and uncertainties, necessitating a systematic risk management process, as accommodated by the regulations in Minister of SOE Regulation Number 2 of 2023 on Guidelines for Governance and Significant Corporate Activities of State-Owned Enterprises. This research focuses on analyzing the alignment and identifying gaps in X's risk management practices based on this regulation, as well as proposing steps to enhance risk management effectiveness in X to face business challenges. The study employs a triangulation approach through document observation, interviews, and literature review. The findings reveal several gaps in the implementation of risk management at X, highlighting areas for improvement, including three lines of defense implementation, enhancing a risk-aware culture, ensuring the independence of the risk management function in its subsidiaries, involving and evaluating the roles of the board of commissioners and the director of risk management, and optimizing the integration process of risk management with its subsidiaries, both in policy and practice
OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT OF RAGUNAN ZOO STAFF BASED ON ISO 31000 Gea Alzera Kosanda; Dominicus Savio Priyarsono; Tanti Novianti
Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue (MORFAI) Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue
Publisher : RADJA PUBLIKA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/morfai.v5i3.4062

Abstract

Ragunan Wildlife Park (TMR) is one of the largest zoos in Indonesia which is a public body managed by the DKI Jakarta local government facing challenges in managing staff occupational safety risks, especially those who interact directly with dangerous animals. Some of the accidents that occurred showed that the existing safety procedures were not fully effective. This study aims to evaluate the implementation of ISO 31000-based occupational safety risk management in TMR and provide recommendations for improvement of existing systems. This study uses a qualitative approach with a case study design, involving interviews with staff, direct observation, and document analysis related to risk management implemented in TMR. The data obtained were analyzed using the ISO 31000 framework to assess the effectiveness of risk management and identify areas that need to be improved in occupational safety procedures. The results show that TMR has identified a wide range of safety risks, such as wild animal attacks, work equipment accidents, and fire risks. The implementation of ISO 31000 in risk management helps improve safety procedures by improving staff training, the use of appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE), and regular risk evaluation. However, there are still challenges in terms of communication between staff, supervision, and readiness to face emergency situations. The implications of this study show that the application of ISO 31000 can be a more systematic basis in managing safety risks in TMR. This research makes an important contribution to improving staff occupational safety and provides recommendations for more effective risk management, which in turn supports the smooth operation and sustainability of conservation programs at TMR.
Desentralisasi Fiskal, Tax Effort dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Studi Empirik Kabupaten/Kota di Indonesia 2001-2008 Priyarsono, D. S.; Budiasih, Budiasih; Agustina, Neli
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 11, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Indonesia has implemented a new policy of regional autonomy and fiscal decentralization for almost ten years. One of the objectives of this fiscal decentralization is to give the full autonomy to local governments in spending and managing their revenues. The local governments have the authority to explore and collect their own-source revenue ('Pendapatan Asli Daerah', or PAD), i.e. through the improvement of their tax effort. The objectives of this study are: (i) to describe the fiscal performance of districts and municipalities in Indonesia, both in the revenue as well as the expenditure sides, (ii) to analyze the effects of intergovernmental transfers ('dana perimbangan', or balancing fund from the central to regional governments) on regional tax efforts, and (iii) to identify the regional economic growth elasticity of intergovernmental transfers and own-source revenue. This study employs a panel datasetof 336 districts and municipalities covering the whole area of Indonesia over the time period of 2001-2008. The results show a relatively low contribution of PAD to regional revenues, indicating high fiscal dependency of regional govemments on the central government. Intergovernmental transfers positively effect tax efforts. The re·sult of the elasticity analysis also indicates a positive role of the transfers as stimuli to economic growth.
Co-Authors ., Harianto A. Yulian AA Sudharmawan, AA Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Adi Hadianto Adi Lumaksono Adler Haymans Manurung Ahmad, Fahmi Salam Akhmad Fauzi Akhmad Fauzi Alfi Nur Lailiyah Alla Asmara Amzul Rifin Andika, Ridho Erfan Anggraini Sukmawati Annisa Utami Seminar Arief Daryanto Arief Muhammad Sigit Artha Graciela Pandiangan Arya Hadi Dharmawan Asti Asti Bambang Wihardi Bayu Agung Prasetyo Beta Septi Iryani Bonar M Sinaga, Bonar M Budi Asih Budiasih Budiasih Bunasor Sanim Bustanul Arifin Charles R. Vorst Desyandri Desyandri Devi Nurmalasari Diah Ananta Dewi Dian Anggraeny Rahim Diyah Nugraheni Eka Dewi Satriana Eko Susetyono Erliza Noor Ernan Rustiadi Ernawati Pasaribu Ervin Nora Susanti Ervin Nora Susanti Esra Frandika Barus Esra Frandika Karo-Karo Euggelin, Meisyielin Fajar Andriansyah Gea Alzera Kosanda Gebby Aldhepis Gerhana Gerhana Gerhana Gerhana Geri Suryadi HANUM, F. Happy Febrina Hariyani Harianto Harianto Hartoyo Hartoyo Hasan, Hasbiyallah Heri Supriyadi Hermanto Siregar Hermanto Siregar Heru Kustanto Hutagaol, Manuntun Paruliah Ilham, Nyak Iryani, Beta S. Kuntjoro . Kustanto, Heru La Ode Nafiu La Ode Nafiu Lailiyah, Alfi Nur Laily Dwi Arsyianti LESMANA, D. C. Linda Karlina Sari MANGARA TAMBUNAN Martua Eliakim Tambunan Maudytia Rismalasari Prabowo Mochammad Imron Awalludin Mohammad Saedy Romli Muhammad Fauzan Fadhlani Musram Abadi Musram Abadi Nandha Rizki Awalia Nanik Dewi Setiawati Neli Agustina Nia Permatasari Pasaribu, Andri Ronaldo Pitri Yandri Popong Nurhayati Prabowo, Maudytia Rismalasari Probokawuryan, Mutiara Putri, Erica Gratia Qomariyah, Nor Raden Racmadi Gustrian Raiyatu Imadidin Ramadyanto , Widodo Ramadyanto, Widodo Rastanura, Yudha Rina Oktaviani Rina Oktaviani Rindayati, W. Rizky Maulana Rusman Heriawan Rustam Abd. Rauf Shabrina Agustin Ghassani Siahaan, Henry MP Sigit, Arief Muhammad Siti Jahroh Sri Hartoyo Sri Hartoyo Sri Hartoyo Sri Mulatsih Suharno Suharto Sulistyowati, Niken Susetyono, Eko Tahlim Sudaryanto, Tahlim Tampubolon, Bahroin Idris Tanti Novianti Titi Kanti Lestari Tony Irawan Triana Rachmaningsih Trias Andati Trias Andati Ujang Sehabudin, Ujang Wahyudi, Wenny Widya Widyastutik Winardi Winardi Winardi Winardi Winardi, Winardi Wiwiek Rindayanti Wiwiek Rindayanti Wiwiek Rindayati Wiwiek Rindayati Y. Munawar Yuliana Susanti Yusman Syaukat Yusman Syaukat Yusuf Munawar