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Journal : International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Rainfall Forecasting Soebroto, Arief Andy; Limantara, Lily Montarcih; Mahmudy, Wayan Firdaus; Sholichin, Moh.; Hidayat, Nurul; Kharisma, Agi Putra
International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology Vol 5, No 4 (2025)
Publisher : Malikussaleh University, Aceh, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52088/ijesty.v5i4.1179

Abstract

Climate change is a significant challenge for both humans and the environment, with its impacts increasingly felt across various regions of the world. The most evident consequence is the alteration of extreme weather patterns, which often lead to destructive and life-threatening natural disasters. Among these, extreme rainfall was the most damaging factor, frequently triggering floods. However, the increasing occurrence of related events outlined the urgent need for developing more accurate rainfall forecasting systems as a strategic measure for disaster risk reduction. This research adopted daily rainfall data from Samarinda City, collected between 2004 and 2012, to conduct prediction using both machine and deep learning methods. The implementation of machine learning methods, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), enabled the model to learn from historical data and uncover complex patterns, resulting in accurate forecasts and improved adaptability to climate variability. Meanwhile, deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), enhanced prediction performance by capturing more intricate and abstract data relationships. Performance evaluations conducted using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) showed that deep learning outperformed machine learning in accuracy. The LSTM model achieved the best performance, with loss values of 0.0482 and 0.0527 for MSE and MAE, respectively. The advantage of deep learning lies in its ability to build more complex models for handling non-linear problems and to learn data representations at various levels of abstraction, which has led to more accurate results. Furthermore, LSTM surpassed RNN by effectively overcoming the vanishing gradient issue, allowing for more stable and efficient training that led to superior predictive performance.
Co-Authors Achmad Arwan Achmad Ridok Adam Hendra Brata Ade Wija Nugraha Adi Setyo Nugroho Admaja Dwi Herlambang Agi Putra Kharisma Agi Putra Kharisma, Agi Putra Agus Wahyu Widodo, Agus Wahyu Ahmad Afif Supianto Ahmad Mustafirudin Ahmad Shofi Nurur Rizal Aizul Faiz Iswafaza Alfarisi, Muhammad Asnin Ali Akbar Alysha Ghea Arliana Amira Ibtisama Ana Kusuma Ardani Andreas Tommy Christiawan Andri Wijaya Kusuma Asrul Syawal Asrul, Divanda Arya Inasta Asus Maizar Suryanto H Austenita Pasca Aisyah Baghaz, Renanda DSP Bambang Gunadi Brilliansyach, Raihan Fikri Caesar, Canny Amerilyse Candra Dewi Candra Dewi Catur Ari Setianto Dama Yuliana Deby Putri Indraswari Denny Sagita Rusdianto Destyana Ellingga Pratiwi Destyana Ellingga Pratiwi Dhea Azahria Mawarni Dian Eka Ratnawati Djoko Pramono Dwi Cindy Herta Turnip Dwi Puri Cemani Dzikrullah, Muhammad Aulia Fachruz Edy Santoso Eka Miyahil Uyun Eko Ari Setijono Marhendraputro Eko Arisetijono Elza Fadli Hadimulyo Enggar Septrinas Enggarsita Auliasin Eugenius Yosep Korsan N Evi Irhamillah Azza Faisal Roufa Rohman Faizatul Amalia Fajar Pradana Fauziah Mayasari Iskandar Febrianita Indah Perwitasari Fendy Yulianto Ferdy Wahyurianto Fildzah Amalia Galuh Mazenda Guruh Prayogi Willis Putra Habib Yafi Ardi Hanafi, Andy Hastian Bayu Hendra Darmawan Herman Syantoso Himawan Sutanto I Gede Adi Brahman Nugraha I Putu Bagus Arya Pradnyana Ibnu, Mohammad Ibrahim Kusuma Imam Cholissodin Imam Cholissodin Imam Cholissodin Imam Cholissodin Imam Cholissodin Indra Ekaristio P Indriana Candra Dewi Indriati Indriati Indriati Indriati Ishak Panangian Sinaga Ismiarta Aknuranda Issa Arwani Issa Arwani Karmia Larissa Br Pandia Khoifah Inda Maula Khrisna Widhi Dewanto Krisna Wahyu Aji Kusuma Lailatul Rizqi Ramadhani Lailil Muflikhah Laode Muhamad Fauzan Latifah Hanum Lily Montarcih Limantara Mahdi Fiqia Hafis Maria Tenika Frestantiya Maria Tenika Frestantiya, Maria Tenika Maya Febrianita Moh. Sholichin Mohammad Imron Maulana Muh. Arif Rahman Muhammad Iqbal Kurniawan Muhammad Rois Al Haqq Muhammad Rouzikin Annur Muhammad Tanzil Furqon Muhammad Taruna Praja Utama Mutia Ayu Sabrina Nadya Rahmasari Nadya Sylviani Nainggolan, Yohana Beatrice Niftah Fatiha Armin Niken Hendrakusma Wardani Nizar Rahman Kusworo Nurannisa, Nadhira Nuriya Fadilah Nurudin Santoso Nurul Faizah Nurul Faridah, Nurul Nurul Hidayat Nurul Hidayat Nurul Hidayat Odhia Yustika Putri Priyambadha, Bayu Randy Cahya Wihandika Raymond Gunito Farandy Junior Rekyan Regasari Restia Dwi Oktavianing Tyas Reynald Daffa Pahlevi Ridwan Fajar Widodo Rio Andika Dwiki Adhi Putra Rio Arifando Risda Nur Ainum Riski Ida Agustiyan Risqi Nur Ifansyah Rivaldy Raihan Syams Rizal Setya Perdana Rizal Setya Perdana Saiful Kirom, Muhammad Ihsan Santoso, Nurudin Sativandi Putra Satrio Agung Wicaksono Sitepu, Yosua Christiansen Stefan Levianto Sukamto, Anjas Pramono Surya Wirawan SUTRISNO Sutrisno Sutrisno Sutrisno, Sutrisno Teddy Syach Pratama Thareq Ibrahim Tiara Rossa Diassananda Tryse Rezza Biantong Vasya, M Azka Obila Vicky Virdus Vivien Fathuroya, Vivien Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy Welly Purnomo Wijaya, Aldi Rahman Wildan Ziaulhaq Wildan Ziaulhaq Wildansyah Maulana Rahmat Yearra Taufan Ardy Rinaldy Yusril Iszha Eginata Zaien Bin Umar Alaydrus Ziya El Arief Ziya El Arief, Ziya El