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All Journal Media Statistika SAINSMAT Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) MATAPPA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Review Pendidikan dan Pengajaran (JRPP) Jurnal Varian Inferensi ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) Variansi : Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya ADMA: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Amaliah: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Journal Nursing Care Jurusan Keperawatan Politeknik Kesehatan Gorontalo SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Indonesian Journal of Fundamental Sciences Seminar Nasional Hasil Penelitian LP2M UNM SMART: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Aswi, Aswi
Department Of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar
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Estimating the Relative Risk of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Makassar City Using a Bayesian Spatial Localised Conditional Autoregressive Model Rahmawati; Aswi Aswi; Rahmat Hidayat; Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/z0mxxw06

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) remains a significant public health challenge in Indonesia, including in Makassar City, which reported an increase of 291 cases in 2024. This study aimed to estimate the relative risk of DHF across 15 districts of Makassar by incorporating covariates such as population density, distance to the city center, and the number of hospitals, using a Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Localised approach. The data were obtained from the publication Makassar City in Figures 2025, issued by the Central Statistics Agency. Spatial autocorrelation analysis with Moran’s I indicated significant clustering of DHF cases. Model selection was conducted using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), and group-level area coverage. The results showed that the best-fitting model was the CAR Localised model with distance as a covariate (M9), specified at G = 3 with hyperprior IG (1; 0.01). Distance exhibited a negative association with DHF incidence, suggesting that the farther a district is from the city center, the lower its relative risk. Among the districts, Rappocini exhibited the highest relative risk followed by Panakkukang, while the lowest risks were observed in Sangkarrang Islands. These findings provide valuable insights for designing spatially targeted DHF prevention and control strategies in Makassar City.
Tourism Forecasting Using Chen and Singh Fuzzy Time Series Models Vivianti Vivianti; Aswi Aswi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/w2554664

Abstract

The tourism sector is one of the main drivers of the national economy, which experienced a significant decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the post-pandemic era, the recovery of international tourist arrivals shows a positive trend, thus requiring accurate forecasting methods to support tourism policy planning. ARIMA method are less effective in handling nonlinear and fluctuating data. This study applies the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) approach, specifically the Chen and Singh models, which are capable of managing data uncertainty and representing linguistic patterns adaptively. The purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of both models using two interval determination approaches, namely the Sturges method and the mean-based method, in forecasting international tourist arrivals through Sultan Hasanuddin International Airport during the period from January 2023 to September 2025. The analytical steps include defining the universe of discourse, performing fuzzification, constructing fuzzy logical relationships (FLR) and fuzzy logical relationship groups (FLRG), and applying defuzzification to obtain forecasted values. The forecasting accuracy was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that the choice of interval determination method significantly affects forecasting performance, with the mean-based method producing more detailed and accurate intervals. Based on the evaluation, the FTS Singh model demonstrated the best performance, with MAPE of 2.16% and RMSE of 31.05, outperforming the Chen model under both interval approaches. Therefore, the combination of the FTS Singh model with the mean-based interval method is recommended as the optimal approach for forecasting post-pandemic international tourist arrivals, as it can capture fluctuating data patterns more precisely and consistently.
EFFECTIVENESS OF SMARTPHONE-BASED SPIRITUAL NURSING CARE ON ANXIETY IN CHILDREN Arbianingsih, Arbianingsih; Huriati, Huriati; Hadrayani, Eka; Aswi, Aswi
Journal Nursing Care Jurusan Keperawatan Politeknik Kesehatan Gorontalo Vol 12, No 1 (2026): JOURNAL NURSING CARE
Publisher : Poltekkes Kemenkes Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52365/jnc.v12i1.1670

Abstract

Background: Hospitalization is a significant stressor in children and is frequently associated with heightened anxiety. Although spiritual care interventions have shown psychological benefits, evidence regarding digital spiritual nursing intervention in pediatric settings remains limited.Purpose: To evaluate the effectiveness of smartphone-based spiritual nursing care in reducing anxiety among hospitalized children.Methods: A quasi-experimental nonrandomized controlled pretest-posttest study was conducted in the pediatric inpatient ward of an Islamic hospital in Indonesia. Sixty children agedunder 18 years were recruited and allocated to the smartphone-based application Spiritual Islamic Nursing Care (SINC) group (n=30) or the control group receiving hospital-based murottal therapy (n=30). This study uses consecutive sampling. The intervention was delivered once daily for three consecutive days. Anxiety was measured at baseline and post-intervention using a validated observation sheet. Within-group changes were analyzed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, and between-group differences were assessed using the Mann-Whitney U test. Effect sizes were calculated using r statistics.Results: Both groups demonstrated significant reductions in anxiety scores following intervention (p<0,001). The reduction in anxiety was significantly greater in the SINC group compared with control group (p=0,001; r=0,44), indicating a moderate effect size.Conclusion: Smartphone-based spiritual nursing care demonstrated greater effectiveness than standard spiritual therapy in hospitals in reducing anxiety among hospitalized children. Digital spiritual interventions may offer a scalable and culturally responsive approach to integrating spiritual care into pediatric nursing practice.
Co-Authors A. Nurul Amalia AA Sudharmawan, AA Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahmat Abidin, Muh. Zulkifli Abidin, Muhammad Rais Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aidid, Muhammad Kasim Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun Ambo Upe Andi Feriansyah Andi Feriansyah Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andin P Andi Shahifah Muthahharah Ankaz As Sikib Annas, Suwardi Annas, Suwardi Annas, Suwardi Annas, Suwarni Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi Arbianingsih Asrirawan Assagaf, Said Fachry Awaluddin Awaluddin Awi Awi Awi Dassa, Awi Awi, Awi Bakri, Nurul Aulya Besse Sulfiani Bobby Poerwanto Bobby Poerwanto Bobby Poerwanto Bustan, Muhammad Nadjib Cramb, Susanna Diana Eka Pratiwi Eka Hadrayani Fahmuddin, Muhammad Fahmuddin, Muhammad Fajar Arwadi Folorunso, Serifat Adedamola Haekal, Muh. Fahri Halimah Husain Hammado, Nurussyariah Herman, Nur Taj Alya’ Hidayat , Rahmat Hisyam Ihsan Huriati, Huriati Idul Fitri Abdullah Ikhwana, Nur Irwan Irwan Irwan, Irwan Ishma Azizah S Isnaini, Mardatunnisa Isnaini, Wulan Maulia Kaito, Nurlaila Lalu Ramzy Rahmanda M Nadjib Bustan M. Miftach Fakhri Mahadtir, Muhamad Mangkona, Andi Ilham Azhar Mar'ah, Zakiyah Mardatunnisa Isnaini Mauliyana, Andi Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Ammar Naufal Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro, Muhammad Arif Muhammad Fahmuddin Muhammad Fahmuddin Muhammad Fahmuddin Sudding Muhammad Kasim Aidid Muttaqin, Imam Akbar Natalia, Derliani Nini Harnikayani Hasa Novianti, Andi Rima Nur Aziza S Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah, Nurhilaliyah Nurkaila Kaito Nurlia Nurlia Nurul Fadilah Syahrul Nurul Ilmi Nurwan, Nurwan Nusrang, Muhammad Oktaviana Oktaviana Oktaviana Oktaviana Palarungi, Andi Gagah Panessai Sir Poerwanto, Bobby Poerwanto, Bobby Poewanto, Bobby Putri Ananda, Elma Yulia Putri, Siti Choiratun Aisyah Putri, Siti Choirotun Aisyah Rahma, Ina Rahman, Abdul Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Hidayat Rahmawati Rahmawati Rahmawati Rais, Zulkifli Ramadani, Reski Aulia Rezki Amalia Idrus Riska Saputri Risma Mastory Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana, Ruliana S, Muhammad Fahmuddin Sahlan Sidjara Saleh, Andi Rahmat Salsabila, Afifah Sapriani Shanty, Meyrna Vidya Siti Choirotun Aisyah Putri Sitti Aminah Sri Ayu Astuti Sri Rahayu Stevani Stevani Suardi, Shafira Suci Amaliah Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna, Sukarna Sulistiawaty Sulistiawaty, Sulistiawaty Sumarni Sumarni Supriadi Yusuf Susanna Cramb Suwardi Annas Suwardi Annas Syafruddin Side Syamsiar, Syamsiar Taufik, Andi Gagah Palarungi Vivianti Vivianti Vivianti Wahidah Sanusi Wea, Maria Dominggo Yassar, La Ode Salman Yudi, Wanda Yunus, Sitti Rahma Zulhijrah Zulhijrah Zulhijrah Zulhijrah Zulhijrah Zulkifli Rais