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Average-based fuzzy time series for forecasting blood bag availability: Implications for health resilience and emergency preparedness in Banda Aceh, Indonesia Ikhsan Maulidi; Fazriani, Nurafni; Radhiah, Radhiah; Apriliani, Vina; Sarbaini
International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for National Defense Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for Nati
Publisher : FoundAE

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58524/app.sci.def.v4i1.1138

Abstract

Background: Blood availability remains a major challenge in healthcare systems, particularly in developing countries where the demand for blood often exceeds the available supply. Accurate forecasting of blood collection is therefore important to support effective blood inventory management at blood transfusion units. Aims: This study aims to apply the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series method to forecast the number of collected blood bags at the Blood Transfusion Unit (UTD) of the Indonesian Red Cross in Banda Aceh, both in total and by blood type. Method: Monthly blood collection data from January 2016 to September 2020 were analyzed using the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series model. The forecasting procedure involved constructing fuzzy intervals using the average-based approach, forming fuzzy logical relationships, and performing defuzzification. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Average Forecasting Error Rate (AFER). Result: The second-order model provided the best forecasting performance with an AFER value of 13.67% and an accuracy of approximately 86.33%, producing a prediction of 2054 blood bags for October 2020. Forecasting by blood type yielded predictions of 529 (A), 702 (O), 738 (B), and 154 (AB) blood bags. Conclusion: The results indicate that the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series method is effective for forecasting blood bag availability and can support planning and management of blood supply at blood transfusion units. Furthermore, the proposed approach has potential applications in defense and emergency contexts by supporting medical logistics planning, improving preparedness, and enhancing the resilience of blood supply systems during military operations and disaster response.
IMPLEMENTASI GERAKAN LITERASI PADA SMA DI KABUPATEN ACEH UTARA, BIREUN, DAN LHOKSEUMAWE Syahriandi, Syahriandi; Trisfayani, Trisfayani; Radhiah, Radhiah; Safriandi, Safriandi
JURNALISTRENDI : JURNAL LINGUISTIK, SASTRA, DAN PENDIDIKAN Vol 6 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Nahdlatul Wathan Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51673/jurnalistrendi.v6i2.792

Abstract

Gerakan literasi sekolah sudah dicanangkan sejak tahun 2016. Banyak sekolah yang belum menerapkannya dan merealisasikan gerakan literasi sekolah secara nyata. Bahkan, jika dilihat peringkat literasi Indonesia di dunia pada posisi ke-65. Aceh sendiri pada posisi ke-21 dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia. Mengacu pada permasalahan tersebut, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan implementasi gerakan literasi sekolah pada SMA di Kabupaten Aceh Utara, Bireuen, dan Lhokseumawe. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode deskriptif dengan pendekatan kualitatif. Teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu teknik observasi, angket, dan wawancara. Hasil penelitian yang didapatkan bahwa implementasi gerakan literasi sekolah di wilayah Kabupaten Aceh Utara, Bireuen, dan Lhokseumawe telah dilaksanakan oleh sekolah-sekolah. Namun, ada beberapa sekolah, khususnya kategori sekolah rendah, yang belum optimal dalam pelaksanaannya. Masih ada indikator-indikator yang belum direalisasikan.
Co-Authors Abdul Azis Acha, Basyarudin Aina, Nandatul Aiyub Septian Al Anshari Andri Yusman Persada Anisa, Fahra Aprilia Putri, Kartika Ariska, Raja Novi Asda Asda Beby Aulia Pradita Cahyono, Rizqi Dara Rahmatillah Dea Riski Dewi Larasati, Dewi Emilda, Emilda Fadlon Haser, Teuku Fadly, Fahmy Fahmy Fadly Fakhrah Fakhrah, Fakhrah Fauzan . Fazriani, Nurafni Febri, Suri Purnama Hafiza, Nurul Hanisah Hanisah Hanisah, Hanisah Harahap, Antoni Harliyana, Iba Harliyana, Iba Hasannuddin, Teuku Haser, Teuku Fadlon Herlina Putri Endah Sari Hidayatsyah Hidayatsyah Hutabarat, Krismonita Darliani Iba Harliyana Idaryani Idaryani Ika Rezvani Aprita Ikhsan Maulidi indra, siti balqies Juni Ahyar Juwita, Afrina Kartika Aprilia Putri Kartika Aprilia Putri Lestari, Netia Mahsa, Masithah Maimun Maimun Maisarah Maisarah, Maisarah Marzuki Maulidawati Maulidawati Maulidi, Ikhsan MAULIDIA, IZZAH Muhammad Aidil Akbar Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Syahroni Nazaruddin Novi Hardiana Putri Novita Sari Nurhaliza Nurhaliza Nurhasanah Bancin Nurjannah Nurjannah Nurjannah Nurmaida Nurmaida Persada, Andri Yusman Pratiwi, Rani Ardesi Purnama Febri, Suri Putri, Kartika Aprilia Rahma Zuhra Rani Ardesi Pratiwi Rasyimah Rasyimah Reza Pahlevi Ginting Ririn Rahayu Ririn Rahayu Rita Zahara Rozalina Rozalina Safriandi Safriandi Safriandi Safriandi Safriandi Safriandi, Safriandi Safriandi, Safriandi Sarbaini Satriadi Satriadi siregar, putri Siti Balqies Indra Siti Nurhaliza Sudirman Sudirman Suri Purnama Febri Syahriandi Syahriandi Syardiansah, Syardiansah Tarmizi Usman Teuku Fadlon Haser Teuku Fadlon Haser Ulza Maramis Vina Apriliani Wahyu Isnanda Nasution Wulanda Yusman Persada, Andri Zulfan Zulfikar Zulfikar Zulfitri Zulfitri