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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

Mapping the Relative Risk of Tuberculosis in Indonesia Using the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive Leroux Model Aswi, Aswi; Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati; Shanty, Meyrna Vidya; Herman, Nur Taj Alya’; Sukarna, Sukarna
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.6814

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by infection with the Mycobacterium Tuberculosis bacteria. Indonesia ranks second globally in terms of the number of TB cases, after India, followed by China. Modeling is needed to evaluate the relative risk (RR) of TB cases in Indonesia to identify areas that have a high RR of being infected with the bacteria. One approach used to estimate the RR of TB in Indonesia is Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR). This research aims to identify the RR rate of TB cases in Indonesia using the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux approach based on TB case data from 2021 to 2022. The best model selection is based on Deviance Information Criteria values, the Watanabe Akaike Information, and residuals from Modified Moran's I. Analysis results shows that in 2021, the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux Model with Inverse Gamma prior (0.5; 0.5) is the best model. DKI Jakarta Province has the highest while Bali Province has the lowest RR. In 2022, the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux Model with Inverse Gamma prior (1;0.01) is the best model, with DKI Jakarta Province still having the highest RR, while Bali still has the lowest RR.
Co-Authors Abdullah, Nurhikmawati Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Ali Aspar Mappahya Ananda, Syatirah Rizky Andi Nirwana Widya Ningsih Ardhani, Ahmad Ardiansar, Abdul Mubdi Arif Arif Arifuddin, Abdul Mubdi Ardiansar Aspar M, Ali Astri Amriani, Eka Aswi, Aswi Aulia, Ade Aulia, Aidina Trini Ayu Puspitasari, Ayu Damayanti, Andi Azizah Deus, Theo Eli, Andi Paraqleta Nur Faika Annisya Fattah, Nurfachanti Hadi, Santriani Harpiana Rahman Herman, Nur Taj Alya’ Ikram, Dzul Irmayanti Irmayanti, Irmayanti Irna Diyana Kartika Jannah, Hariratul Khalid, Nur Fadhillah Magfirah, Innaia Mappahya, AliAspar Maricar, Fadillah Moch Erwin Rachman Mochammad Erwin Rachman Mubarak, Andi Firman Muh. Nur Abadi Muhammad Asrul Apris Muis, Malik Fajar Mursyidin, Farhani Amaliyah Nadia, Farah Nadya Nur Aqilah Namirah, Hanna Aulia Nur, Muh Jabal Nurwijayanti Putra, Mardhiyanto Azhary Putra, Wudi Darul Rachman, Ismi Rahil Annisyah Putri D Rahmawati, Rahmawati Rasfayanah, Rasfayanah Rifai, Didit Fachri Safitri, Asrini Sakinah, Nurul Salahuddin, Andi Salsabilla, Andi Batari Samosir, Abdi Dwiyanto Putra Shanty, Meyrna Vidya Sodiqah, Yani Sommeng, Faisal Sri Julyani Sri Wahyu St Haeriyah Bohari Suhestin, Cristy Wanti Sukarna Sukarna Sumarni Sumarni Sumirna, Sumirna Syahruddin, Febie Irsandy Tahir, Akina Maulidhany Trya Maharani, Ratu Utami, Dian Fahmi Widiyastuti, Nanda Febriyanti Wiriansya, Edward Pandu Wisudawan, Wisudawan Wisudawan, Wisudawan Yusuf, Rezky Aulia Z., Nurul Islah Zikrina, Nadya Nur Zulfahmidah, Zulfahmidah