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VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL DALAM MENGANALISIS DEVISA DI POS LINTAS BATAS NEGARA (PLBN) ENTIKONG Novi, Novi; Yundari, Yundari; Satyahadewi, Neva
BIMASTER : Buletin Ilmiah Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 15, No 1 (2026): Bimaster : Buletin Ilmiah Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Tanjungpura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26418/bbimst.v15i1.106596

Abstract

Ketergantungan ekonomi masyarakat di kawasan PLBN Entikong terhadap produk Malaysia serta tingginya perdagangan informal lintas batas menyebabkan arus devisa keluar dan masuk tidak tercatat secara resmi. Selain itu, perbedaan harga barang dan mobilitas wisatawan lintas batas berpotensi menimbulkan permasalahan ekonomi di wilayah perbatasan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang serta melakukan peramalan penerimaan devisa dan jumlah wisatawan mancanegara di PLBN Entikong menggunakan pendekatan VECM. Data yang digunakan berupa data bulanan periode Januari 2018 hingga Desember 2024 yang mencakup penerimaan devisa dan jumlah wisatawan mancanegara. Analisis meliputi uji stasioneritas, penentuan lag optimum, dan uji kointegrasi untuk menentukan penerapan model VAR atau VECM, dilanjutkan analisis jangka panjang dan jangka pendek, uji diagnostik, IRF, VD, serta peramalan periode Januari 2025 hingga Desember 2029 dengan evaluasi menggunakan MAPE. Dalam jangka panjang, penerimaan devisa dan wisatawan mancanegara memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan arah pengaruh negatif, di mana peningkatan salah satu variabel pada periode sebelumnya menurunkan variabel lainnya. Dalam jangka pendek, kedua variabel tetap saling memengaruhi melalui mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang, dengan wisatawan mancanegara berdampak positif terhadap penerimaan devisa, sedangkan penerimaan devisa berdampak negatif terhadap jumlah wisatawan mancanegara. Peramalan untuk periode Januari 2025 hingga Desember 2029 menunjukkan tren peningkatan yang stabil pada kedua variabel, dengan penerimaan devisa diproyeksikan mencapai sekitar 3,71 juta USD dan wisatawan mancanegara meningkat hingga 5.368 orang pada akhir periode. Akurasi peramalan untuk periode Januari 2025 hingga September 2025 tergolong cukup baik berdasarkan nilai MAPE sebesar 23,75% untuk penerimaan devisa dan 20,89% untuk wisatawan mancanegara.
EFEKTIVITAS PELATIHAN POWER BI DALAM MENINGKATKAN LITERASI DATA ADMIN SATU DATA KALIMANTAN BARAT Neva Satyahadewi; Evy Sulistianingsih; Shantika Martha; Nurfitri Imro'ah; Hendra Perdana; Wirda Andani; Ray Tamtama; Yuyun Eka Pratiwi; Muhammad Fikri; Pitriani; Annisa Auliarahmi; Nazwa Nursyifa; Yohanna Gabriel Richsita; Louis Putra Jaya; Jessica Audrey Valeria
Dianmas Bhakti: Jurnal Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Vol 3 No 1 (2026): Dianmas Bhakti: Jurnal Pengabdian pada Masyarakat
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Panca Bhakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54035/dianmas.v3i1.626

Abstract

This Community Service Program (PKM) aimed to enhance data literacy and information visualization skills among Satu Data administrators of local government agencies (OPD) through Microsoft Power BI training at the West Kalimantan Provincial Communication and Information Agency (Diskominfo). The program was implemented through preparation, face-to-face training, and evaluation stages using pre-test and post-test instruments. The training covered fundamental concepts of data analysis, data visualization techniques, and hands-on dashboard development using regional sectoral data. The results of the paired sample t-test analysis indicated a statistically significant improvement between participants’ pre-test and post-test scores, demonstrating the effectiveness of the training. Furthermore, analysis using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) revealed that training material quality had a positive and significant effect on participants’ learning outcomes, while other supporting factors such as training duration, facilitator performance, and technical aspects did not show significant effects. These findings highlight that well-structured and relevant training materials play a critical role in improving participants’ competencies. Overall, the program contributed to strengthening analytical skills and supporting the implementation of the Satu Data Indonesia policy toward transparent and evidence-based data governance
Comparative Analysis of the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Estimating Expected Stock Returns in the IDX BUMN20 Index Alfariz, Febrant; Sulistianingsih, Evy; Satyahadewi, Neva
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 14 Issue 1 April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v14i1.37760

Abstract

This study examines the comparative performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in estimating expected stock returns within the IDX BUMN20 Index. The study is motivated by the ongoing debate regarding the empirical validity of single-factor and multifactor asset pricing models, particularly in emerging markets such as Indonesia. While prior studies provide mixed evidence, limited research has focused specifically on state-owned enterprise indices, which exhibit distinct risk characteristics. Using monthly stock price data, this study estimates expected returns under both models and evaluates their performance using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), which measures the average deviation between estimated and realized returns. In the APT framework, factor sensitivities are estimated using a multifactor regression approach, incorporating macroeconomic variables as systematic risk factors. This allows a more detailed assessment of how multiple sources of risk influence return estimation. The results indicate that the CAPM demonstrates relatively better estimation performance, as reflected by lower MAD values compared to the APT. However, the APT provides additional insights into the role of multiple risk factors, suggesting its relevance in capturing more complex market dynamics. These findings highlight that while simpler models may perform more consistently in certain contexts, multifactor approaches remain valuable for understanding broader sources of systematic risk. The study contributes to the asset pricing literature by providing empirical evidence from the IDX BUMN20 Index and offering a more nuanced comparison between single-factor and multifactor models in an emerging market setting.
Co-Authors . Apriansyah Afghani Jayuska Afghany Jayuska Al-Ham, Hairil Alfariz, Febrant Amriani Amir Amriani Amir Amriani Amir Andani, Wirda Annisa Auliarahmi Antoni, Frans Xavier Natalius Apriliyanti, Rita Aprizkiyandari, Siti Ardhitha, Tiffany Ari Hepi Yanti Arsanti, Resti Arsyi, Fritzgerald Muhammad Arti, Reyana Hilda Ashari, Asri Mulya Asri Mulya Ashari Asty Fistia Ningrum Atikasari, Awang Aulia Puteri Amari Bambang Kurniadi Banu, Syarifah Syahr ciptadi, wahyudin Cornellia, Amanda Crismayella, Yuveinsiana Dadan Kusnandar Dadan Kusnandar Dadan Kusnandar David Jordy Dhandio Debataraja, Naomi Nessyana Della Zaria Desriani Lestari Desriani Lestari Desriani Lestari Dhandio, David Jordy Dinda Lestari Dwi Nining Indrasari Dwinanda, Maria Welita Eka Febrianti, Eka Esta Br Tarigan Evy Sulistianingsih Ewaldus Okta Ferdina Ferdina Feriliani Maria Nani Fitriawan, Della Fransisca Febrianti Sundari Fransiska Fransiska Grikus Romi Gusti Eva Tavita Gusti Eva Tavita Hairil Al-Ham Halim, Alvin Octavianus Hamzah, Erwin Rizal Handayani, Aditya Hanin, Noerul Harimurti, Puspito Harnanta, Nabila Izza Helena, Shifa Hendra Perdana Hendri Kurniawan, Hendri Hendrianto, El Herina Marlisa Huda, Nur'ainul Miftahul Huriyah, Syifa Khansa Ibnur Rusi Idilla, Leona Ikha Safitri Imro'ah, Nurfitri IMRO’AH, NURFITRI Imtiyaz, Widad Isra’ Sagita Jawani Jawani Jaya, Louis Putra Jessica Audrey Valeria Karlina, Sela Kusnandar, Dadan Tonny Louis Putra Jaya Lucky Hartanti Lucky Hartanti Lucky Hartanti M. Deny Hafizzul Muttaqin Maga, Fahmi Giovani Maharani, Citra Cipta Margareta, Tiara Margaretha, Ledy Claudia Marlisa, Herina Marola, Geby Martha, Shantika Mega Sari Juane Sofiana Mega Sari Juane Sofiana Mega Tri Junika Millennia Taraly Misrawi Misrawi Muhammad Ahyar Muhammad fauzan Muhammad Fikri Muhammad Radhi Muhammad Rizki Muliadi Muliadi Muslimah (F54210032) Nabil, Ilhan Nail Nanda Shalsadilla Naomi Nessyana Debataraja Naomi Nessyana Debataraja Nazwa Nursyifa Noerul Hanin Nona Lusia Novi Novi Nugrahaeni, Indah Nur Asih Kurniawati Nur Asiska Nurfadilah, Kori’ah Nurfitri Imro'ah Nurfitri Imro’ah Nurhalita Nurhalita Nurhanifa, Nurhanifa Nurmaulia Ningsih Oktaviani, Indah Ovi Indah Afriani Paisal Paisal Pertiwi, Retno Pitriani Pratama, Aditya Nugraha Pratiwi, Yuyun Eka Preatin, Preatin Putri Putri Putri, Aulia Nabila Qalbi Aliklas R Puspito Harimurti Radhi, Muhammad Radinasari, Nur Ismi Rafdinal Rafdinal Rahadi Ramlan Rahmadanti, Putri Rahmanita Febrianti Rusmaningtyas Rahmawati, Fenti Nurdiana Ramadhan, Nanda Ramadhania, Wahida Regita, Luna Amara Reni Unaeni Retnani, Hani Dwi Ria Andini Ria Fuji Astuti Rina Rina Risky Oprasianti Rita Kurnia Apindiati Rivaldo, Rendi Riza Linda Rizki Nur Rahmalita Rizki, Setyo Wira Rosi Kismonika Roslina Rosi Tamara Rovi Christova Safira, Shafa Alya Salsabilla, Arla Santika Santika Sary, Rifkah Alfiyyah Savitri, Dini Dwi Seftiani, Seftiani Selvy Putri Agustianto Setyo Wir Rizki Setyo Wira Rizki Setyo Wira Rizki Setyo Wira Rizki Shantika Martha Shantika Martha Sinaga, Steven Jansen Sintia Margun Sista, Sekar Aulia Siti Aprizkiyandari Siti Aprizkiyandari, Nurul Qomariyah, Shantika Martha, Siti Hardianti Suci Angriani Sukal Minsas Sukal Minsas syuradi, Syuradi Tamtama, Ray Taraly, Inggriani Millennia Tiara, Dinda Trifaiza, Fadhela Wahyu Diyan Ramadana Wahyudin Ciptadi Warsidah Warsidah Warsidah, Warsidah Wilda Ariani Wirda Andani Yohanna Gabriel Richsita Yopi Saputra Yudhi Yuliono, Agus Yumna Siska Fitriyani Yundari, Yundari Yuveinsiana Crismayella Yuyun Eka Pratiwi Zakiah, Ainun