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Journal : knowledge engineering and data science

Comparison of Indonesian Imports Forecastingby Limited Period using SARIMA Method Ar Rosyid, Harits; Aniendya, Mutyara Whening; Herwanto, Heru Wahyu
Knowledge Engineering and Data Science
Publisher : citeus

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Abstract

The development of Indonesia's imports fluctuate over years. Inability to anticipate such rapid changes can cause economic slump due to inappropriate policy. For instance, recent years imports in rice led to the extermination of rice reserves. The reason is to maintain the market price of rice in Indonesia. To overcome these changes, forecasting the amount of imports should assist the Government in determining the optimum policy. This can be done by utilizing an algorithm to forecast time series data, in this case the amount of imports in the next few months with a high degree of accuracy. This study uses data obtained from the official website of the Indonesian Ministry of Trade. Then, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is applied to forecast the imports. This method is suitable for the interconnected dependent variables, as well as in forecasting seasonal data patterns. The results of the experiment showed that 6-period forecast is the most accurate results compared to forecasting by 16 and 24 periods. The research resulted in the best model, that is ARIMA (0, 1, 3)(0, 1, 1)12 produces forecasting with a MAPE value of 7.210 % or an accuracy rate of 92.790 %. By applying this imports forecast model, the government can have a forward strategic plans such as selectively imports products and carefully decide the amount of the incoming products to Indonesia. Hence, it could maintain or improve the economic condition where local businesses can grow confidently.
Recognition of Handwritten Javanese Script using Backpropagation with Zoning Feature Extraction Handayani, Anik Nur; Herwanto, Heru Wahyu; Chandrika, Katya Lindi; Arai, Kohei
Knowledge Engineering and Data Science
Publisher : citeus

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Abstract

Backpropagation is part of supervised learning, in which the training process requires a target. The resulting error is transmitted back to the units below in its training process. Backpropagation can solve complicated problems because it consumes less memory than other algorithms. In addition, it also can produce solutions with a low error rate while executing less time. In image pattern recognition, backpropagation can be utilized for cultural preservation in many places worldwide, including Indonesia. It is used to recognize picture patterns in Javanese script writings. This study concluded that feature extraction approaches, zoning, and backpropagation could be utilized to distinguish handwritten Javanese characters. The best accuracy is attained at 77.00%, with the network architecture comprising 64 input neurons, 40 hidden neurons, a learning rate of 0.003, a momentum of 0.03, and an iteration of 5000.
Co-Authors A.N. Afandi Abdullah Iskandar Syah Adim Firmansah Afifah, Hesti Nur Agoes Santika Hyperastuty Ahmad Faiz Risvan Haqiqi Aji Prasetya Wibawa Amir Rofiudin Amir Rofiudin Amir Rofiudin Ananda, Sagita Regina Putri Aniendya, Mutyara Whening Anik Nur Handayani Aripriharta - Ary Agung Wibowo Ary Agung Wibowo Arya Kusumawardana Asfani, Khoirudin Azizah, Ambar Isna Chandrika, Katya Lindi Chusna, Chufadatul Dendi Mukti Putranto Denny Martin Denny Martin Devita, Riri Nada Dewayani, Mifta Didik Dwi Prasetya Didik Nurhadi Dila Umnia Soraya Dimas Jundan A Dimas Jundan Ashshiddiqi Eddy Triswanto Setyoadi Eka Rakhmawati Wardhani Eka Rakhmawati Wardhani Erlitasari, Mita Erma Widayanti Eva Yulia Safitri, Eva Yulia Fauzi, Rochmad Firdaus, Rizal Firman Syahputra, Yohanes Dhimas Fitri, Shofiana Hadi, Sholihul Hakkun Elmunsyah Harits Ar Rosyid Hartarto Junaedi Hendra Susanto Hofifah, Hofifah I Made Wirawan Indonesia, Anggirda Permata Indriana, Poppy Irva Widiyawati Irva Widiyawati Jayanti, Ratna Dwi Joyo, Achmad Darmo Kartika Candra Kirana Kasmira, Kasmira Katya Lindi Chandrika Khusnul Muttaqiyah Khusnul Muttaqiyah Khusnul Muttaqiyah Kohei Arai Kohei Arai Kornelius Kamargo/Irawan Dwi Wahyono Kornelius Kamargo Kristian Jodi Lilis Widayanti Luhur Adi Prasetya Luhur Adi Prasetya M. Aris Ichwanto Maghfiro Nuzula Fidinda Putri Manga, Abdul Rachman Marga Asta Jaya Mulya Maskuri, Muhammad Naja Maulana, Afiko Ilham Akbar Mawahib, Agus Mochammad Taufik Hidayat Muhamad Luqmanul Hakim Muhammad Afnan Habibi Muhammad Aris Ichwanto Muhammad Fazlur Rahman Addakhil Muis Muhtadi Mukti Putranto, Dendi Muladi Mutyara Whening Aniendya Ningrum, Gres Dyah Kusuma Nor Salwa Damanhuriis Nugroho, Andhik Catur Nunung Nurjanah Nur Aliyah Rohma Nur Amalinda Peggy Gilang Pratama Poppy Indriana Prasetya, Luhur Adi Putra, Adhi Pramana Estiawanda Ramadhan, Minggar Putra Dhea Ratnasari, Heny Dwita Ratnasari, Heny Dwita Resty Wulanningrum Rian Syahmulloh Hendranawan Rian Syahmulloh Hendranawan Rizal Fauzi, M. Syamsul Rizalnur Firdaus Rizka Rahmania Ameilia Rofiudin, Amir Rosa Andrie Asmara Rudi Trianto, Rudi Salsabila Thifal Nabil Haq Salsabila Thifal Nabil Haq Samodra, Joko Satia Nur Maharani Setiadi Cahyono Putro Shandy Krisnawan Shofiana Fitri Sholihul Hadi Siti Sendari Slamet Wahyudi Slamet Wibawanto Suhendri Suhendri Suhendri Sujito Sujito Sunaryono Syaad Patmanthara Syamsul Bahri Titasari Rahmawati Tony Yu Tri Atmadji Sutikno Triyanna Widiyaningtyas Triyanna Widyaningtyas Vivi Aida Fitria Wahyu Gunawan Irianto Wahyu Sakti Gunawan Irianto Wardhani, Eka Rakhmawati Widiyanti Widiyanti, Widiyanti Widyadara , Made Ayu Dusea Winda Cahyaning W Yosi Kristian Yoto Yoto Yoto Yoto Yoto, Yoto Yu, Tony Yudha Islami Sulistya Yuliana Melita Pranoto Yuni Rahmawati Zustina Zustina Zustina