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All Journal International Journal of Evaluation and Research in Education (IJERE) JPTK: Jurnal Pendidikan Teknologi dan Kejuruan Jurnal Manajemen Terapan dan Keuangan JURNAL PROMOSI KESEHATAN INDONESIA Gorga : Jurnal Seni Rupa Arty: Jurnal Seni Rupa Eduarts: Journal of Arts Education Innovative Journal of Curriculum and Educational Technology Berkala Ilmiah Kedokteran Duta Wacana Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING Brikolase : Jurnal Kajian Teori, Praktik dan Wacana Seni Budaya Rupa Dewa Ruci : Jurnal Pengkajian dan Penciptaan Seni SOSIO EDUKASI Jurnal Studi Masyarakat dan Pendidikan EDUMATIC: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika Citradirga : Jurnal Desain Komunikasi Visual dan Intermedia SPEKTA (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat : Teknologi dan Aplikasi) Ideguru: Jurnal Karya Ilmiah Guru Community Empowerment Otonomi Jurnal Pendidikan Vokasi Otomotif Jurnal Media Ekonomi Jurnal Interprof Community Education Engagement Journal BISNIS & BIROKRASI: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi dan Organisasi Jurnal Pajak dan Bisnis (Journal of Tax and Business) Technologica SENTRI: Jurnal Riset Ilmiah Takuana: Jurnal Pendidikan, Sains, dan Humaniora Polinomial : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika E-BISMARK : Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Marketing JRAP (Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Perpajakan) TOFEDU: The Future of Education Journal Riwayat: Educational Journal of History and Humanities BAKIRA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat JMMR (Jurnal Medicoeticolegal dan Manajemen Rumah Sakit) Ahwaluna | Jurnal Hukum Keluarga Islam Arty: Jurnal Seni Rupa Pemberdayaan Masyarakat: Jurnal Aksi Sosial Eduarts: Jurnal Pendidikan Seni INTECH (Informatika dan Teknologi)
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Journal : JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING

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Calibration and Applied Statistical Modeling Using Logistic Regression on the UCI Heart Disease Dataset Cahyono, Andi; Ameriza, Inkha; Gunadi, Gunadi; As Syifa, Ervira Dwiaprini; Alqudah, Mashal Kasem
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): February 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v10i1.11853

Abstract

Accurate and well-calibrated heart disease risk prediction is essential for supporting medical decision-making. This study analyzes Logistic Regression as an applied statistical model for heart disease prediction using the UCI Heart Disease dataset. Beyond discrimination metrics, we explicitly focus on probability reliability by evaluating calibration through the Brier score, calibration slope, and intercept, and by quantifying the impact of post-hoc calibration (isotonic regression and Platt scaling) on both calibration and discrimination. Model validation was conducted using stratified 5-fold cross-validation with AUROC, AUPRC, accuracy, and F1-score as evaluation metrics. The results show that Logistic Regression achieved competitive performance (AUROC 0.903; AUPRC 0.911; Accuracy 0.822; F1-score 0.835) with well-calibrated probability estimates relative to Random Forest and Gradient Boosting under the evaluated setting. Feature importance analysis using permutation methods identified chest pain type, number of major vessels (ca), ST depression (oldpeak), and exercise-induced angina (exang) as key predictors consistent with clinical literature. These findings indicate that simple applied statistical modeling, when paired with rigorous calibration assessment, can provide interpretable risk estimates that are more suitable for threshold-based decision support in early heart disease screening.
Co-Authors Aan Yudianto Adwiyani, Pustika Affero Ismail, Affero Afri Yudantoko Agus Widyianto Aida, Yusron Alifiya Herwitarahman Alqudah, Mashal Kasem Ameriza, Inkha Aminatuzzuhro Andi Cahyono Andreasta Meliala Anggraini, Stela Annisa, Baaqy Amri Anwar, Dian Fitryah Arlangga, Lazi As Syifa, Ervira Dwiaprini Asih, Rika Wahyu Nur Atmojo, Singgih Tiwut Basri, Ahmad Betti Nuraini Dedi Setiawan Dheo Rimbano Diah Mutiarasari Edi Purwanto Eka Askafi Eko Haryanto Eko Setiawan Eko Wahyu Junaidi Endang Suswati Ernani Hadiyati Fifiafianti, Elsy Fitria Fitria Fiyanto, Arif Hadi Asnal, Hadi Haryono Haryono Hendrakusuma, FX Bhakti Hendri Hermawan Adinugraha Herminarto Sofyan Hidayat Hidayat Holdi, Muhammad Indra Mutiara, Indra Intan, Noor Tiara Habib Aisyah Irba’ Muhlas Sambodo Jatmiko, Arif Jaya, Arik Sandra Judijanto, Loso Kadang, Tandi Karlina Karlina Kelana, Tomas Aldi Khadafi, Muhammad Riqqo Khasanah, Siti Fatimatul Kristiantoro, Edy Lea Kudadiri, Parlindungan Kusuma, Eka Widiawati Wijaya Kusumawardhani, Indah Luh Putu Ratna Sundari Ma'arif Isa Sabda Akbar Maemonah, Maemonah Mahmudi Mardiansyah, Hendra Martias Martias Maruanaya, Rita Fransina Merry Tiyas Anggraini Milla Sepliana Setyowati Moch.Naelul, Arzak Muh. Ibnan Syarif, Muh. Ibnan Muhammad Dziaa’ul Haq Mujiyono Mujiyono Muliandari, Nadya Mulyadi Mulyadi Mustofa Abi Hamid Nadia Sigi Prameswari Nawingkapti, Kenya Astari Nisya, Hima Choirun Norhadi, Sigit Nugra Irianta Denashurya NURCHAMID, TAFSIR Nurjayadi Nurjayadi Nurodanika, Mawarda Onang, Murtiyoso Oyong Lisa Pramono, Sat Pratama Bayu Widagdo Primadini, Istiarti Purnomo, Wisnu Cahyo Purwanto Purwanto Ragil, Bambang Rahina Nugrahani Rahmiati Rahmiati Ramadhani, Amelia Arum Ratnasari, Yasinta Ayu Rizaldy Taslim Pinzon Ronny Hendra Hertanto Safriadi Samosir, Agnes Evelina Saputro, Ridho Sardiyo Sardiyo, Sardiyo sari, Desi Nurmala Siswantoyo Sitorus, Dermawati Soadah, Soadah Sugeng Mulyono Sulaiman Sulaiman Sulistia Ningsih, Sulistia Supriyanto Supriyanto Susanti, Nining Eka Sutanta Sutanta, Sutanta syakir syakir Syarifah Fahma Nida Aulia Syifa, Raihan Nabila T Sy Eiva Fatdha, T Sy Eiva Tawardjono Us. Torkis Nasution Tri Puji Astuti Trismayanti, Ni Made Rika Tupulu, Nari Ustadi, Noorchamid Viddy, Arkas Wahyu Setiyadi Wahyuningrum, Ani Friska Nur Waleska, Rangga Febrio Wisamodro Jati Yani, Lismeri Yoyon Efendi Yulianti, Firda Zuhriah Zuhriah, Zuhriah