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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Educational Studies Jurnal Sosialisasi: Jurnal Hasil Pemikiran, Penelitian dan Pengembangan Keilmuan Sosiologi Pendidikan MaPan : Jurnal Matematika dan Pembelajaran Biolearning Journal Mattawang: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Dedikasi Inteligensi : Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan EduLine: Journal of Education and Learning Innovation ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science SAINSMAT: Journal of Applied Sciences, Mathematics, and Its Education Issues in Mathematics Education (IMED) Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vokatek : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Seminar Nasional Hasil Penelitian LP2M UNM Information Technology Education Journal Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat International Journal of Environment, Engineering, and Education Journal of Embedded Systems, Security and Intelligent Systems Jurnal Teknologi Pendidikan Prosiding Seminar Nasional Dies Natalis Universitas Negeri Makassar Pengabdian Pendidikan Indonesia (PPI) Indonesian Technology and Education Journal LITERA ABDI: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Hasil-Hasil Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (JHP2M) Jurnal MediaTIK Media Elektrik UNM Journal of Technology and Vocational Jurnal Olahraga Kebugaran dan Rehabilitasi (JOKER) Digitech: Jurnal Pengabdian Teknologi Masyarakat
Ruslan Ruslan
Department Of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Indonesia
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Journal : journal of embedded systems security and intelligent systems

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Simulation-Based Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost Framework for Early Prediction of Simulated Learning-Loss Risk Using LMS Log Features Agunawan; Ruslan; Dandi Darmadi
Journal of Embedded Systems, Security and Intelligent Systems Vol 7 No 3 (2026): September 2026
Publisher : Program Studi Teknik Komputer

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59562/jessi.v7i3.13173

Abstract

Purpose – Learning loss remains a concern in Indonesian higher education after the pandemic, while LMS-based early warning systems remain limited for timely intervention. This study designs and evaluates a hybrid LSTM–XGBoost framework for early prediction of simulated LMS-based learning-loss risk, prioritizing architectural innovation over metric superiority. Methods – Using 6,440 synthetic LMS records structured from publicly documented Sevima EdLink log fields, early risk was predicted from weeks 1–4 features and labeled at week 6 with behavioral proxy rules. An 80:20 group-aware train–test split by student identifier used leakage-safe, training-only scaling and one-hot encoding. Models were compared as an untuned architectural benchmark with matched-feature ablations, approximate confidence intervals, calibration/threshold analysis, and feature importance inspection. Findings – The temporal-only LSTM model produced the strongest overall predictive performance, while the LSTM with static-feature fusion showed comparable results. The hybrid LSTM–XGBoost decision stage remained competitive but did not outperform the matched LSTM configurations or demonstrate a clear advantage over simpler baseline models. Ablation analysis further showed that neither static-feature integration nor the use of XGBoost as the final decision engine provided a meaningful performance improvement. Changes in engagement, feedback activity, interaction patterns, and early time-on-task emerged as the most influential simulated indicators of learning-loss risk. Research Implications – The hybrid architecture offers a replicable blueprint for LMS early-warning pipelines that separate temporal extraction (LSTM) from risk classification (XGBoost). Institutional use requires real LMS validation, recall optimization, and ethical compliance. Originality – This simulation-based late-fusion LSTM–XGBoost blueprint separates the prediction window (weeks 1–4) from the outcome window (week 6) and evaluates architectural contribution.
Co-Authors Agunawan, Agunawan Ahmad Nurfauzan Ahmad Talib Ahmad Thalib Ainun Haurul Jannah Akhyar Muchtar Al Imran Aldiansyah Ismail Alfiah Nurfadhilah AM Hindi Alisa Yuliarsih Amrang Amrang Anastiti Cahya Dewati Andi Ammar Akrar Andi Wawan Indrawan Anisah Syafiqah Asdar . Askarmis Rudini Asmawati Ahmad Awaluddin Awi Dassa B Bernard Burhanuddin, Sudirman D. Darwis Dandi Darmadi Dyah Vitalocca Edi Suhardi Rahman Edwin Ali Akbar Fadhilrrahman Baso Fajar Arwadi Fathahillah Firdaus Daud Fitrahlaelah Muh Asri Fitratul Ulfa Fitri Rahmadhani Fitria Fitria Hamda Hamda Hamsu Abdul Gani Hasrul Hasrul Hendra Jaya Hisyam Ihsan Hutapea, Bilferi Imam Suyudi Intan Fandini Irmawati M Iwan Setiawan HR Iwan Suhardi Kurniati, Ratnah Labusab Labusab Lu'lu Yu'tikan Nabilah Lu'mu Lu'mu Lu'mu Lu’mu Taris M Irfan Muh Alief Anugerah K Muh. Aldi Muh. Iksan N Muh. Yusuf Mappease Muh. Yusuf Mappeasse Muhammad Ammar Naufal Muhammad Dika Raswadi Muhammad Ilham S Muhammad Iswal Muhammad Shiddiqien Kuddus Muhammad Yusuf Mappeasse Mujri Afuw Muliadi Muliadi Nasrullah Nasrullah Nofi Nafila Nugrawati NUR AMAL JAYA Nur Rahayu Nur Saidah S Nurhakimah Mujahid Nurkahfiah Ridwan Nurul Asmi Nurul Hisani Basri Nurul Ilmi Pratiwi Nurul Ilmi Pratiwi Nurwati Djam'an Nurwati Djam‘an Purnamawati R. Rusdi R. Rusli Rafiqa Rafiqa Ricardo Valentino Latuheru Riska Iqbal Riska, Muhammad Rusli Rusli Rusli Sahid Sanatang Sarifin Sarifin Shabrina Syntha Dewi Sri Kurniati Sri Kurniati Syamsurijal Syamsurijal Syamsurijal Udin Sidik Sidin Ulantari Suhal Umar, Umar Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudin Wahyudin Yunus Tjandi Yusnadi Yusnadi Zainal Arifin