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Journal : International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Development and assessment of solar radiation forecasting models based on operational data Suwarno, Suwarno; Cahyadi, Catra Indra; Sukarwoto, Sukarwoto; Napitupulu, Janter
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 14, No 5: October 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v14i5.pp4838-4845

Abstract

Operational forecasting of solar radiation is critical for better decision-making by solar energy system operators, due to the variability of energy resources and demand. Although the numerical weather forecasting (NWP) model can predict solar radiation variables, there are often significant errors, especially in direct normal irradiation (DNI), which are influenced by the type and concentration of aerosols and clouds. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based method to generate operational DNI forecasts using weather and aerosol forecast data from the European Center for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF) and Copernicus atmospheric monitoring service (CAMS) respectively. The ANN model is designed to predict weather and aerosol variables at a certain time as input, while other models use the DNI forecast improvement period before the instant forecast. The model was developed using North Sumatra location observations and obtained DNI forecasting results every 10 minutes on the first day with DNI forecasting compared to the initial forecasting which was scaled down with the R2, mean absolute error (MAE), and relative mean square error (RMSE) models were 0.6753, 151.2, and 210.2 W/m2, so that and provides good agreement with experimental data.
Co-Authors -, Paino Abdul Rahim Ahmad Bahrawi, Ahmad Akbar, Muhammad Caesar Alfian Meidy Anes Alwazir Abdusshomad Amalia, Direstu Amren S, Hairul Ananda, Yussa Andi Intan Bp Arnawan Hasibuan Asep Muhammad Soleh AYU FITRIANI Ayu Fitriani Benny Kurnianto Berlin Barus Bertha N Siahaan Birje, Herman Bunda, Yola Permata Cherlina Helena Purnamasari Panjaitan Cut Try Utami Devia Rahma Yanti Dila Handayani Eko Risdianto Faruqi, Ismail Fauziah Nur Fiqqih Faizah Fitri Masito Harahap, Nurmahendra Hasibuan, Eriansyah S I Gusti Agung Ayu Mas Oka I Gusti Agung Ayu Mas Oka I Gusti Agung Ayu Mas Oka I Gusti Agung Ayu Mas Oka I Gusti Wayan Murjana Yasa Inda Tri Pasa Indra Roza Ingkak Chintya Wangsih Iswandi Idris Ivana Wardani Jaidup Banjarnahor Jason Juan Matthew Jhoni Hidayat JUNAIDI Junaidi Junaidi Kalbuana, Nawang Kurnia, Muhammad Ridho Kurniaty Atmia Kurniaty Atmia Kusyadi, Dadang Liber Tommy Hutabarat Lisa Adriana Siregar Lisda Juliana Pangaribuan Lubis, Rizki Jum'at Ramadhan Manurung, Pardamean Muhammad Fadlan Siregar Muhammad Fadlan Siregar Muhammad Rafli Fazal Mutiara Widasari Sitopu N, Susi Diriyanti. Napitupulu, Janter Ningsih, Margie Subahagia Nur, Fauziah Oka, I Gusti Agung Ayu Mas Paino Panangian Mahadi Sihombing Pasa, Inda Tri Randa Agusta Pratama Rida, Rizkha Ridwan Syahputra Rifdian Indrianto Sudjoko Rini Sadiatmi Rizaldy Khair Setiyo Setiyo Setiyo Setiyo Sholeha, Dewi Siregar, Lisa Adriana Siregar, Muhammad Amril Siregar, Widyana Verawaty Sofyan Anwar Syahputra Sukarwoto Sukarwoto Sukarwoto Sukarwoto, Sukarwoto Susi Diriyanti Suwarno Suwarno Suyatmo Syafni, Fadly Syafriwel, Syafriwel Syairi Anwar Sylvia, Tiara Syofyan Anwar Syahputra Tampubolon, Clarissa Eldora Tanjung, Farhan Taufik Ismail Simanjuntak Tomi Abdilah Ulfa Hasnita Usman USMAN - Usman Usman Viktor Suryan Virma Septiani Wahyu Saputra Warassari, Betia Wardani, Ivana Widasari Sitopu, Mutiara Yanti Daryanti Yanti Daryanti Yeti Komalasari Yoga Tri Nugraha Yohana Yohana Yussa Ananda Zambak, Muhammad Fitra