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All Journal IQTISHODUNA Jurnal Ekonomi Modernisasi The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Jurnal Studi Komunikasi Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) Jurnal Varian Abdi Dosen : Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Variansi : Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Mattawang: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization Quantitative Economics and Management Studies LOSARI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Riset dan Inovasi Pembelajaran Panrannuangku Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat EduLine: Journal of Education and Learning Innovation Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science al-fikrah: Jurnal Manajemen Pendidikan Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Seminar Nasional Hasil Penelitian LP2M UNM ARRUS Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Ahmar, Ansari Saleh
Department Of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, 90223, Makassar, Indonesia
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The Comparison of Single and Double Exponential Smoothing Models in Predicting Passenger Car Registrations in Canada Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana; Miguel Botto-Tobar; Rahmat Hidayat
Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.daengku2639

Abstract

This study aims to compare the two main variants of exponential smoothing methods in the context of business forecasting: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). In this study, we applied these three methods to the data on Monthly Passenger Car Registrations in Canada from 2019 to 2022. The performance of each method was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the primary metric. The analysis results showed that Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) produced the best performance with the lowest RMSE of 13.07859 for an alpha of 0.6, compared to DES, which yielded higher RMSE values. These findings indicate that although DES have the capability to handle trends and seasonality, in some cases, especially when the data has single fluctuations without significant seasonal patterns or trends, SES can provide more accurate forecasting results. This study provides valuable insights for practitioners in selecting the most appropriate forecasting method based on the characteristics of the data at hand.
Pelatihan Penulisan Karya Tulis Ilmiah pada Guru SMP di Kabupaten Tana Toraja Ahmar, Ansari Saleh; Rusli, R.; Rahman, Abdul; Lince, Ranak; Musa, Hastuty
ARRUS Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.abdiku1744

Abstract

Guru sekarang dituntut untuk kreatif meneliti (dalam berbagai skala dan bentuk) dan menulis hasil penelitian maupun analisisnya dalam suatu artikel ilmiah. Permasalahan riil yang melatarbelakangi kegiatan ini yaitu belum banyak guru (SD/SMP) yang memiliki keterampilan cukup untuk menulis artikel ilmiah dan baru sedikit pula yang telah berhasil mempublikasikannya melalui jurnal ilmiah ber-ISSN atau terakreditasi. Tujuan kegiatan ini adalah (1) memberikan (sharing) pelatihan dan mendampingi guru-guru SD/SMP dalam menulis artikel ilmiah secara tepat, dan (2) menambah wawasan dan meningkatkan keterampilan guru-guru SD/SMP dalam menulis artikel ilmiah dan mempublikasikannya melalui jurnal ilmiah. Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini dilaksanakan untuk guru-guru SD/SMP diwilayah Rantepao dan sekitarnya yang mempunyai kemauan dan kemampuan untuk dilatih penulisan karya ilmiah. Peserta kegiatan berjumlah 25 orang. Pelaksanaan kegiatan ini dalam bentuk pelatihan dan pendampingan. Pelaksanaan kegiatan pelatihan ini dilakukan beberapa kali, yang dapat memberikan masukan dan manfaat, diantaranya yaitu: (1) guru-guru SD/SMP mendapatkan pelatihan dan pendampingan dalam menulis artikel ilmiah dan hal-hal yang terkait dengan artikel ilmiah, dan (2) wawasan dan keterampilan guru-guru SD/SMP meningkat dalam menulis artikel ilmiah.
Penulisan Instrumen Penelitian Ilmiah pada Guru SMP di Kabupaten Toraja Utara Rahman, Abdul; Arsyad, Nurdin; Rusli, R.; Ahmar, Ansari Saleh; Musa, Hastuty
ARRUS Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.abdiku1745

Abstract

Instrumen penelitian adalah komponen penting dalam penelitian ilmiah karena menutup kemungkinan instrumen dari suatu penelitian dapat digunakan kembali oleh penelitian lain yang memiliki keterkaitan dan kebutuhan yang sama. Artinya instrumen penelitian dapat menjadi aset ilmiah bagi seorang peneliti yang mengembangkannya. Hasil dari pelatihan penulisan instrument ini, ditunjukkan antara lain oleh: (1) adanya kesesuaian materi dengan kebutuhan guru-guru SD/SMP untuk meningkatkan profesionalitasnya, penulisan instrumen penelitian bidang pendidikan, (2) adanya respon yang positif dari peserta mengingat kegiatan pengabdian merupakan kebutuhan guru dalam rangka peningkatan profesionalitasnya, dan (3) sebagian besar (85%) peserta telah memahami konsep penulisan instrument penelitian bidang Pendidikan.
Meningkatkan Publikasi Ilmiah Melalui Teknik Sitasi dan Penulisan Referensi Bagi Guru SMP Di Kabupaten Takalar Rusli, Rusli; Rahman, Abdul; Sutamrin, Sutamrin; Ahmar, Ansari Saleh; Musa, Hastuty
ARRUS Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.abdiku2160

Abstract

Solusi yang ditawarkan pada pengabdian ini berupa pelatihan melakukan sitasi dan referens berbantuan menu references bawaan Microsoft Word. Sasaran kegiatan ini adalah guru-guru SMP yang bergabung dalam MGMP Matematika SMP dalam lingkup Kabupaten Takalar. Kegiatan pelatihan ini dilaksanakan secara kolosal untuk beberapa kelompok bidang pelatihan, jumlah keseluruhan guru yang mengikuti pelatihan sebanyak 69 guru SMP baik negeri maupun swasta dalam lingkup Kabupaten Takalar, dan sebanyak 17 guru yang tertarik mengikuti pelatihan dengan materi peningkatkn publikasi ilmiah melalui teknik sitasi dan penulisan referensi. Pelatihan ini dilakukan melalui 3 (tiga) tahap, yaitu: (1) Perencanaan, (2) Pelaksanaan, (3) Evaluasi. Materi yang diberikan adalah wawasan tentang penelitian dan laporan penelitian, pengetahuan tentang sitasi, dan keterampilan guru dalam teknik penulisan pengutipan , referens secara otomatis. Metode yang digunakan adalah melakukan penyuluhan/pengajaran, pelatihan, peragaan dan diskusi dan refleksi antara guru dan tim pelaksana, Model pelatihannya adalah experiantal learning. Pelaksanaan pelatihan tentang pembuatan laporan hasil penelitian yang difokuskan pada Teknik sitasi dan referensi berjalan sangat lancar, hasil yang diperoleh bahwa materi yang disajikan dalam PKM sangat sesuai dengan kebutuhan Guru, kegiatan PKM ini sangat sesuai dengan harapan Guru, guru sangat berminat untuk mengikuti kegiatan serupa di waktu yang akan datang. Pelatihan ini pula memberi manfaat yang sangat baik pada guru. Juga kegiatan PKM ini sangat menambah wawasan dan keterampilan guru, dan yang terakhir bahwa guru sangat puas pada pelaksanaan PKM.
Effect of government role and human resource competence on level of success of small and medium enterprises in East Java province with business performance as mediation variable Al Idrus, Salim; Abdussakir, Abdussakir; Al Idrus, Shofiyah; Supriyanto, Achmad Sani; Ahmar, Ansari Saleh; Kamaluddin, Kamaluddin
Jurnal Ekonomi Modernisasi Vol. 19 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Kanjuruhan Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21067/jem.v19i1.8033

Abstract

The objective of this research is to reveal the effect of government role and human resource competence on level of success of SMEs in East Java Province with business performance as mediation variable. Using quantitative research, causal relationship across variables is ensured through SEM-PLS method. Sampling technique is purposive random sampling with 130 SMEs used as sample. Data collection technique is using questionnaire. The results of research show that government role and human resource competence affect level of success of SMEs in East Java Province; and business performance is the mediation variable to the effect of government role and human resource competence on level of success of SMEs in East Java Province.
EQUIPPING TEACHERS WITH 21ST CENTURY SKILLS: TRAINING ON WEBSITE AND ICT-BASED LEARNING MEDIA CREATION Dewi Satria Ahmar; Sitti Rahmawati; Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Muhammad Fath Azzajjad; Zamil Wahab; Sarinah Emilia Tonio; Sri Muliani
Abdi Dosen : Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Vol. 8 No. 3 (2024): SEPTEMBER
Publisher : LPPM Univ. Ibn Khaldun Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32832/abdidos.v8i3.2459

Abstract

Teachers in the twenty-first century need to be digitally literate in order to raise the calibre of instruction. According to a scenario analysis conducted at SMAN 1 Sindue Tobata, over 80% of instructors require training in the development of ICT and website-based learning materials since doing so lowers student involvement and the quality of instruction. Teachers were given extensive training to enable them to build and utilise digital learning resources in order to solve this problem. Because of this, over 90% of the trainees were able to develop online and ICT platforms to provide engaging and useful learning materials. As a result, this training not only helps instructors meet their skill demands, but it also greatly enhances the teaching and learning process in the digital age. For the training programme to continue supporting teachers' professional growth in the future, sustainability is crucial. This project, financed by the Directorate of Research, Technology and Community Service (DRTPM), with contract number Manual.164/E5/DT.05.00.2024, is to assist in the enhancement of the quality of instruction.
The Implementation of Holt-Winters Method to Forecast the Loan Interest Rate of Indonesia Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Mohd. Rizal Mohd. Isa; Rahmat Hidayat
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems2718

Abstract

This study aimed to anticipate the rupiah loan interest rates at commercial banks in Indonesia by employing the Holt-winters method. This study employs data on rupiah loan interest rates from commercial banks in Indonesia. The data comprises a time series element, with monthly intervals spanning from January 2013 to November 2015, which was obtained from the official website of BPS Indonesia. The study demonstrates that the Holt-winters technique yields the most accurate forecasts, as indicated by a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.19720630. The parameters alpha, beta, and gamma, set at 0.6, 0.6, and 0.6 respectively, constitute the optimal configuration for this method. These results indicate that the Holt-winters method is an effective tool for capturing seasonality, trends, and patterns in credit interest rate data, making it a reliable choice for future loan interest rate forecasting. The findings of this study are expected to significantly contribute to strategic decision-making in the banking sector, particularly in risk management and loan interest rate strategy determination.
Analysis of Stock Portfolio Optimization in the Telecommunications Sector Using the Single Index Model Irwan Irwan; Muhammad Abdy; Nurul Khofifah Salsabila; Ansari Saleh Ahmar
ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/mathscience1734

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal portfolio in the telecommunications sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange based on the Jakarta Composite Index for the period January 2018–December 2020 using the Single Index Model. This type of research is an applied research. This type of research is applied research with secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Yahoo Finance, and Bank Indonesia. The number of samples taken is 5 stocks, namely TLKM, ISAT, EXCL, BTEL, and FREN. Based on the results of the analysis of the 5 stocks that are members of the JCI, the combination of 2 stocks that make up the optimal portfolio, namely ISAT and FREN, produces an expected return of 5.08% with a risk of 8.02%.
Evaluating Random Forest Algorithm in Educational Data Mining: Optimizing Graduation on-time prediction using Imbalance Methods Rizal Bakri; Niken Probondani Astuti; Ansari Saleh Ahmar
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum2449

Abstract

The study aims to evaluate the performance of Random Forest algorithms in data mining education by optimizing graduation on-time (GOT) predictions using imbalanced data methods. Methods used to handle imbalanced data include random under-sampling (RUS), random over-sampling (ROS), hybrids of RUS and ROS, synthetic minority over-sampling techniques for nominal classes (SMOTE-NC), and hybrids of SMOTE-NC and RUS. After applying these methods, studies analyze their performance on training and testing data. The research findings show that on training data, the RUS-ROS hybrid showed the best performance compared to other methods, while the SMOTENC and RUS hybrid techniques showed the best performance on testing data based on AUC values. The research showed that the use of an imbalanced data method significantly improved the ability of Random Forest algorithms to predict graduation on time (GOT) in the context of educational data. We discuss the implications for educational data mining applications and provide suggestions for future research.
K-Means Cluster for Grouping Regencies/Cities in South Sulawesi Province Based Human Development Index on the 2023 Isma Muthahharah; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana; Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum2587

Abstract

The grouping of districts/cities in South Sulawesi province should be carried out as a material for planning and evaluating government program objectives. The aim is to increase human development figures based on the indicators that form the HDI including Life Expectancy (UHH) at birth, Expected Years of Schooling (HLS), Average Years of Schooling (RLS). Therefore, cluster analysis was used using the K-means method, which is a type of statistical analysis. This type of research is applied research with a quantitative approach by collecting and analyzing data using the K-Means Cluster method. The data used in the determination was sourced from the South Sulawesi Provincial Central Statistics Agency in 2023. The results of grouping using K-Means clusters showed that there were 3 clusters, where cluster 1 had 23 regencies/cities in the Southern Province consisting of the Selayar Islands, Bantaeng, Jeneponto, Takalar, Sinjai, Maros, Pangkep, Barru, Bone, Soppeng, Wajo, Luwu and North Luwu with low criteria. Cluster 2 has 3 regencies/cities, namely Makassar, Pare Pare and Palopo with high criteria. Cluster 3 has 8 regencies/cities, namely Bulukumba, Gowa, Sidrap, Pinrang, Enrekang, Tana Toraja, East Luwu and North Toraja with medium criteria. The suggestion in this research is that you can use indices and other methods to group districts/cities in South Sulawesi Province.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman Abdussakir Abdussakir Absussakir Abdussakir Achmad Sani Supriyanto Agus Nasir Ahmad Rifad Riadhi Ahmad Talib Akbar Iskandar Akbar Iskandar Alfairus, Muh. Qodri Ali Mokhtar Alief Imron Juliodinata Alok Kumar Panday Alsa, Yudhistira Ananda Andika Isma ANDIKA SAPUTRA Angela Diaz Cadena Asfar Asfar Asmar Asmar, Asmar Astuti, Niken Probondani Aswi, Aswi Ayu Rahayu Azzajjad, Muhammad Fath Boj del Val, Eva Boj, Eva Bustan, M Nadjib Dary Mochamad Rifqie Della Fadhilatunisa Dewi Fatmarani Surianto Dewi Satria Ahmar Djawad, Yasser Abd. Ersa Karwingsi Eva Boj Faizal Arya Samman Fathahillah Fathahillah Hamzah Upu Hardianti Hafid Hastuty Hastuty Hastuty Hastuty Hastuty Musa Herman Herman Hidayat M., Wahyu Ifriana Ifriana Ilimu, Edi Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Isma Muthahharah Jamaluddin Jamaluddin Kamaluddin Kamaluddin Kasmudin Mustapa Khadijah Khaeruddin Khaeruddin Lince, Ranak M. Miftach Fakhri Maemunah Magfirah Manalu, Yessi Febianti Mansyur Mansyur Marni Marni, Marni Meliyana R, Sitti Masyitah Miguel Botto-Tobar Misriani Suardin Mohd. Rizal Mohd. Isa Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Farhan Muhammad Kasim Aidid Muhammad Kasim Aidid Muhammad Nadjib Bustan Muhammad Nadjib Bustan Muhammad Nusrang Muliadi Muliadi N. Nurahdawati Nachnoer Arss Nasrul Ihsan Niken Probondani Astuti Niken Probondani Astuti Novi Afryanthi S. Nur Anisa Nurdin Arsyad, Nurdin Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati Nurul Khofifah Salsabila Parkhimenko Vladimir Anatolievich Patmasari, Andi Poerwanto, Bobby R. Ruliana R. Rusli R. Rusli R. Rusli Rahman, Abdul Rahman, Muhammad Fatur Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Hidayat Rais, Zulkifli Rajesh Kumar Ramli Umar Riny Jefri Rizal Bakri Robbi Rahim Rosidah Rosidah Rosidah Rosidah Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana, Ruliana Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rustam, Sitti Nailah Sahid Sahid Salim Al Idrus Salim Al Idrus Sapto Haryoko Sarinah Emilia Tonio Shofiyah Al Idrus Singh, Pawan Kumar Siti Nurazizah Auliah Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Sitti Rahmawati Sobirov, Bobur Sri Hastuti Virgianti Pulukadang Sri Muliani Sriwahyuni, Andi Ayu Suci Lestari Sutamrin, Sutamrin Suwardi Annas Suwardi Annas Suwardi Annas Syafruddin Side Tabash, Mosab Tri Santoso Triutomo, Agung wahyuni wahyuni Yunus, Asmar Zakiyah Mar'ah Zakiyah Mar'ah Zamil Wahab Zulkifli Rais