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Adriyanto, Agus
Universitas Pertahanan
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Analysis of the Impact of Mineral and Coal Downstreaming Policy on Global and National Economies: A GTAP Approach Basuki Rahmad Saleh; Irdam Ahmad; Herlina Juni Risma Saragih; Agus Adriyanto; Susanna Renna Ertanti
Journal La Sociale Vol. 7 No. 3 (2026): Journal La Sociale
Publisher : Borong Newinera Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37899/journal-la-sociale.v7i3.3249

Abstract

Indonesia's mineral and coal downstreaming policy, which imposes export bans and restrictions on raw minerals such as nickel, bauxite, copper, and coal, represents one of the most ambitious resource industrialization strategies globally. This study aims to analyze the potential and impact of the mineral and coal downstreaming policy on Indonesia's macroeconomic and sectoral economic indicators as well as its implications for global trading partners. The analysis method employs the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) version 10 database model with two cooperation scenario approaches: a 50% reduction in raw mineral exports (Simulation 1) and a 95% reduction in raw mineral exports (Simulation 2). The macroeconomic indicators analyzed include welfare (equivalent variation), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), household consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports, imports, and trade balance. The sectoral indicators include output changes and employment opportunities. The results show that Indonesia's downstreaming policy promotes an increase in real GDP, household welfare, domestic consumption, and investment, with the highest gains occurring in the nickel processing, ferronickel, and manufactured metals sectors. However, the policy creates a temporary trade balance deterioration due to increased capital goods imports for smelting infrastructure. From the sectoral perspective, downstream mineral industries particularly ferronickel, chemical fertilizers derived from coal gasification, and mineral-based manufactured goods record the highest output and employment increases. These findings underscore the strategic importance of accelerating hilirisasi policies while mitigating trade risks through market diversification.
Co-Authors Achmed Sukendro Adityo Santoso Adityo Santoso Agung Wibowo Agustinus Agustinus Alvina Kusuma Amelia Fatimah Aminuyati Andi Muhammad Ilham Rusali Masdar Andreas N, R. Djoko Anindita Nur Hidayah Apriyanto, I Nengah Putra Azhari Daniela, Nurfaizah Basuki Rahmad Saleh BAYU SETIAWAN bhaskara, muhammad surya Budi Purwanto Dadang Mas Bakar Dangan Waluyo Deddy, M Arif Desta Lesmana Desta Musthofa Lesmana Dody Mulia Harahap Eri Radityawara Hidayat Eri Radityawara Hidayat Erti Fadhilah Putri Fitri Andrianti Indah Gustaman Gustaman, Fitri Andrianti Indah H.D. Arifin Simanjuntak H.D. Arifin Simanjuntak Habib Rahman Nugraha Halomoan Alexandra Halomoan FS Alexandra Hartanto, Dhimas Rudy Hayatul Khairul Rahmat Herlina Juni Risma Saragih Herlina Juni Risma Saragih Herlina Juni Risma Saragih Herlina Juni Risma Saragih Herlina Juni Risma Saragih Ichsan Malik Irdam Ahmad Irwanto, Bambang Jeihany Anggrilla Safarani Jeihany Anggrilla Safarani Jeihany Anggrilla Safarani Kartika P, Seri Nenni Kukuh Setyo Pambudi Kukuh Setyo Pambudi Lubis, Amany Lucy Warsindah Ma'rufah, Nurbaiti Manesi, Damianus Maryanti Maryanti Mayang Agneztia Parasasti Messakh, Jakobis Mirza Apriansyah, Achmad Mochammmad Afifuddin Muhammad Faizal Nasution Muhammad Surya Bhaskara Naila Ma'aliya Naila Ma'aliya Nur Rezki Amalia Nurbaiti Ma'rufah Panji Suwarno Prakoso, Lukman Yudho Priyanto Priyanto Priyanto Priyanto Puguh Santoso Pujo Widodo Pujo Widodo Ramadhani, Rizkia Mutiara Ratna Damayanti Risma Saragih, Herlina Juni Rivaldo Noval Putra Santosa Rizkia Mutiara Ramadhani Rudy Sutanto Rudy Sutanto Rudy Sutanto Rudy Sutanto Safarani, Jeihany Anggrilla Silitonga, Tatar Bonar Siswo Hadi Sumantri Sumantri, Siswo Hadi Sumarlin Supriyanto, Taufiq Susanna Renna Ertanti suseto, buddy Susmoro, Harjo Suwarno, Panji Syamsunasir, Syamsunasir Taneo, Melkisedek Timur, Fauzia Gustarina Cempaka Triyoga Budi Prasetyo Triyoga Budi Prasetyo Warka, I Wayan Widia Aprilia Widodo S Pranowo Wilopo Wilopo Yoga Rosmanto Yohannes Enggar Riyadi Yusuf Ali