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ANALISIS PENGARUH ANGKA KEMATIAN BAYI TERHADAP ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR BERDASARKAN ESTIMATOR LEAST SQUARE SPINE Anies Yulinda W; Trias Novia L.; Melati Tegarina; Nur Chamidah
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 1 No. 1 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (652.916 KB) | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v1i1.14775

Abstract

Life expectancy can be used to evaluate the government's performance for improving the welfare of the population in the health sector. Life expectancy is closely related to infant mortality rate. Theoretically, decreasing of infant mortality rate will cause increasing of life expectancy. A statistical method that can be used to model life expectancy is nonparametric regression model based on least square spline estimator. This method provides high flexibility to accommodate pattern of data by using smoothing technique. The best estimated model is order one spline model with one knot based on minimum generalized cross validation (GCV) value of 0.607. Each increasing of one infant mortality rate unit will cause decreasing of life expectancy of  0.2314 for infant mortality rate less than 27, and of  0.0666 for infant mortality rate more than and equals to 27. In addition, based on mean square error (MSE) of 0.492 and R2value of 76.59% for nonparametric model approach compared with MSE of 0.634 and R2 value of 71.8%  for parametric model approach, we conclude that the use of nonparametric model approach based on least square spline estimator is better than that of parametric model approach.
Modeling of Incident Status Dengue Fever in East Nusa Tenggara Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Approach A Meylin; N. A. Aprilianti; D Lestari; Nur Chamidah
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 2 No. 2 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v2i2.23856

Abstract

Dengue fever is a disease caused by one of the four dengue viruses and this disease is an infectious disease that is spread through the bite of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito. When compared with the number of dengue cases in previous years, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) was one of the provinces that experienced an increase in the number of dengue cases in the last three years. Previous research states that the transmission of dengue fever is caused by several factors, one of which is environmental factors of geographical location so that spatial aspects need to be involved in this study. A the statistical method that can be used to analyze spatial data in the form of a logistic regression equation that has a binary response variable is the Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) method. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the high number of dengue fever cases in NTT in 2018 using GWLR approach by weighted the Gaussian kernel function. Based on the results of GWLR analysis, the number of rainy days and the number of health workers partially significantly influence the status of dengue fever events in each regency/city in NTT Province in 2018. Based on the calculation of Press’s Q value, the prediction in this study was accurate with the accuracy of classification was 0.8636 or 86.36%.
ESTIMASI SELANG KEPERCAYAAN NILAI UJIAN NASIONAL BERBASIS KOMPETENSI BERDASARKAN MODEL REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK MULTIRESPON TRUNCATED SPLINE Lilik Hidayati; Nur Chamidah; I Nyoman Budiantara
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 1 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1063.995 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.1.92-103

Abstract

Confidence interval estimation is important in statistical inference for the parameters of the regression model, but the theory of confidence interval estimation for multi-response semiparametric regression model parameters based on the truncated spline estimator has not been examined. In this study, we estimate the confidence interval of the multi-response semiparametric regression model based on the truncated spline estimator by using pivotal quantity method with the central limit theorem approach. This confidence interval theory is applied to data of competency-based national exam (UNBK) scores in West Nusa Tenggara Province where its UNBK  in the lowest position among other provinces in Indonesia. The method used for estimating parameters is weighted least square. The best model is determined based on the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) minimum value. Based on the estimated 95% confidence interval of parameters of the multi-response truncated spline semiparametric regression model, the results showed that the insignificant factors affecting the UNBK scores were gender and parental education duration while the report card of scores and USBK scores had a positive effect on the UNBK scores but only the UNBK scores of mathematics that report card of scores factor has a negative effect on it.
Pemodelan Persentase Kepesertaan BPJS Non Penerima Bantuan Iuran Dengan Pendekatan Regresi Data Panel Dhyana Venosia; Suliyanto; Sediono; Nur Chamidah
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 15 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (398.897 KB) | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol15.no1.a4863

Abstract

Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara yang mengembangkan konsep Universal Health Coverage (UHC) pada sektor kesehatan yang diterapkan pada Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional (SJSN) melalui program Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) yang dikelola Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial (BPJS) Kesehatan dengan tujuan sebagaimana tertuang pada Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 40 Tahun 2004. Peserta JKN terbagi menjadi Penerima Bantuan Iuran (PBI) dan Non Penerima Bantuan Iuran (Non PBI). Penelitian ini, untuk menganalisis faktor yang mempengaruhi persentase kepesertaan BPJS Non PBI yang diharapkan dapat memberikan prediksi pengoptimalan. Pengoptimalan diperlukan karena, realitanya persentase kepesertaan BPJS Non PBI masih jauh dari target pemerintah, khususnya Provinsi Jawa Timur pada tahun 2017 hingga 2020. Walaupun mengalami peningkatan, di setiap Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Jawa Timur terindikasi mengalami fluktuasi. Maka, dalam mengestimasi fenomena tersebut digunakan metode regresi data panel melalui pendekatan Fixed Eeffect Model (FEM) dengan alpha sebesar 5 persen. Maka, secara statistik diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa yang berpengaruh signifikan adalah persentase penduduk miskin dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT).
PEMODELAN PREVALENSI PENYAKIT KUSTA DI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN PENDEKATAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION Christopher Andreas; Horidah Horidah; Rizza Sulistiana; Dhyana Venosia; Nur Chamidah
Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik Vol 14 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika dan Komputasi Statistik
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/jurnalasks.v14i2.351

Abstract

Indonesia merupakan penyumbang kasus baru penyakit kusta tiga terbesar lingkup dunia, dengan Jawa Timur sebagai provinsi yang berkontribusi tertinggi. Hal ini membuat pemerintah menetapkan target rencana aksi guna mengeliminasi kusta di Indonesia. Penyakit kusta tergolong penyakit menular sehingga penyebaran penyakit ini dipengaruhi faktor lingkungan geografis. Oleh sebab itu, digunakan metode Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) untuk pemodelan prevalensi penyakit kusta di Jawa Timur, dengan persentase rumah tangga yang menggunakan fasilitas mandi, cuci, kakus bersama , persentase rumah tangga yang belum memiliki akses terhadap sanitasi layak , dan jumlah penduduk miskin  memberi pengaruh signifikan terhadap prevalensi penyakit kusta di Jawa Timur, dengan sebaran kabupaten dan kota yang dipengaruhi secara signifikan masing – masing sebanyak 26,32%, 18,42%, dan 39,47%. Selain itu, hasil pemodelan GWR menunjukkan akurasi dan kebaikan model yang lebih baik daripada model regresi global. Pada penelitian ini, diketahui bahwa prevalensi penyakit kusta tertinggi di Jawa Timur terjadi di Kabupaten Sumenep dengan nilai prevalensi sebesar 2,06. Untuk mencapai target eliminasi kusta yang ditetapkan pemerintah, maka Pemerintah Kabupaten Sumenep dapat menurunkan nilai persentase rumah tangga yang belum memiliki akses terhadap sanitasi layak  hingga mencapai 12,01% dan jumlah penduduk miskin  hingga mencapai 13,215 ribu jiwa.
Designing Standard Growth Chart Based on Weight-For-Age Z-Score of Children in East Java Using Least-Square Spline Estimator Nur Chamidah; Ardi Kurniawan; Toha Saifudin
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 4 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v4i2.38917

Abstract

Children would be categorized as children who have underweight nutritional status, if according to index of anthropometric they have a lack of weight. In Indonesia, this anthropometric index is recorded on a Card Toward Health called as KMS. This card follows the WHO-2005 standard which is designed based on samples from Brazil, Ghana, India, Norway, Oman, and USA. Those samples, of course, physically are very different from Indonesian children. Therefore, in this paper we design weight-for-age Z-score standard growth charts of children by using least-square spline estimator and samples of children from East Java province, Indonesia. Next, the proposed children standard growth charts are used to assess East Java children nutritional status. The results show that the proposed standard growth charts have met the goodness of fit criteria namely the average values of coefficient determination for boy and girl are close to one, and values of mean square errors are close to zero. It means that the proposed growth charts are more suitable to be used to assess the nutritional status of East Java children, because they can better explain the real conditions of children in East Java, Indonesia than the WHO-2005 standard growth charts.
Pemodelan Penderita Tuberkulosis di Jawa Timur Berdasarkan Pendekatan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Diah Puspita Ningrum; Toha Saifudin; Suliyanto Suliyanto; Nur Chamidah
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022): SEPTEMBER, 2022
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/j.v19i1.21262

Abstract

Tuberculosis is the 13th trigger of death causes around the world. Even after Covid-19, tuberculosis ranks 2nd as a contagious killer disease. In 2020, Indonesia ranks 2nd out of 8 countries with the highest contributor to tuberculosis sufferers after India. East Java Province is the region with the largest number of tuberculosis cases in order of 8. Tuberculosis cases in East Java in 2020 have decreased, but when viewed from the success rate of treatment of tuberculosis cases per district/city in East Java, it was found that 53% still did not meet the target of 90%. According to (World Health Organization), gender affects the occurrence of tuberculosis disease, where men are more susceptible than women. In finding treatment for all tuberculosis incidents in East Java, the highest patient was male. This study was conducted to model tuberculosis in men in the East Java area. The results of the study prove that the modeling of male tuberculosis in East Java used linear regression and GWR  (Geographically Weighted Regression) obtained the best model was GWR with Fixed Gaussian Kernel weighting, CV value of 5.68, and R2 86.47%. Variables that have a significant effect on male tuberculosis in East Java are BCG immunization for male infants, public places meeting health requirements, youth who smoke tobacco every day, sex ratio, and households with access to proper sanitation facilities.      
Pemodelan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia Berdasarkan Efek Pandemi Covid-19 Dengan Estimator Penalized Spline Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siregar; Farida Farida; Sabrina Falasifah; Muhammad Falah El Fahmi; Nur Chamidah
MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology Vol 7 No 2 (2022): DECEMBER
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/must.v7i2.16377

Abstract

Pandemi Covid-19 berdampak beberapa sektor di dunia, salah satunya adalah sektor ekonomi dalam hal harga minyak mentah dunia. Harga minyak mentah dunia telah mengalami fluktuasi pada awal tahun 2000 hingga sekarang yang berpengaruh terhadap harga minyak mentah Indonesia. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah memodelkan data harga minyak mentah dunia terhadap efek pandemi covid-19 dengan menggunakan estimator penalized spline. Estimator penalized spline merupakan salah satu estimator dalam regresi nonparametrik yang memiliki hasil smoothing lebih mulus daripada estimator lainnya. Hal ini dikarenakan pada estimator penalized spline terdapat orde, titik knot, banyaknya titik knot, dan parameter penghalus (λ). Pola perubahan harga minyak mentah dunia diinterpretasikan melalui model regresi kuantil spline (penalized spline) orde 1 dengan nilai GCV sebesar 39,61756 dan nilai MSE sebesar 36,7544. Kemudian, dari hasil analisis didapatkan nilai MAPE sebesar 10,77% yang dikategorikan model peramalan yang akurat. Dengan demikian, estimator penalized spline lebih baik digunakan untuk mengestimasi data harga minyak mentah dunia yang dipengaruhi periode masa pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia untuk periode berikutnya.
PREDICTION OF RAINFALL IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE BASED ON THE FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR Zidni Ilmatun Nurrohmah; Diana Ulya; Qumadha Zainal Abidin; Syifaun Nadhiro; Nur Chamidah
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 10, No 2 (2022): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.34-42

Abstract

Abstract: Rainfall is the height of rainwater in a rain gauge on a flat place that does not seep and flow, where rainfall is measured in millimeters (mm). This study aims to estimate and model the rainfall for DKI Jakarta Province from January 2016 to December 2021 using the Fourier series estimation. Based on the results of the study, a model with a minimum GCV value of 21909,4, at the 7th ???? 43,78972. This model shows that the predictor variable can explain the diversity of response variables by 94,14%.
Pemodelan Indeks Ketahanan Pangan di Indonesia Berdasarkan Pendekatan Regresi Logistik Ordinal Data Panel Efek Acak Anisa Laila Azhar; Suliyanto Suliyanto; Nur Chamidah; Elly Ana; Dita Amelia
Jurnal Ketahanan Nasional Vol 29, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jkn.86511

Abstract

ABSTRACTIndonesia is an agricultural country with the agricultural sector being an important sector in supporting food needs. Food availability that is less than necessary can lead to an unstable economy, as well as disrupt national food security. This study was conducted to model The Food Security Index (Indeks Ketahanan Pangan, IKP) and to find out what factors affect the status of food security in Indonesia.The analysis method used in this study is the logistic regression analysis of panel data with random effects. The data used in this study is secondary data related to IKP sourced from the Ministry of Agriculture and factors that are suspected to affect IKP in each province sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) from 2019 to 2021. The results of the analysis showed that statistically, the variable percentage of stunted toddlers and the variable percentage of households with access to electricity had a significant effect on the IKP. In addition, the results of the model conformity test showed that the random effect panel data logistic regression model was more in line with the classification accuracy of 50.98% when compared to the standard logistic regression with a classification accuracy of 40.80%.
Co-Authors A Meylin Abdul Aziz Abidin, Qumadha Zaenal Afriani Agus Satmoko Adi Ahmad Fauzi Aisharezka, Mutiara Akbar, Aditya Syarifudin Al Farizi, Muhammad Fikry Al Hasri, Ilham Maulana Alda Fuadiyah Suryono Aldawiyah, Najwa Khoir Alexandra, Victoria Anggia Alfiatur Rakhma, Syavrilia Alfinda Novi Kristanti Alpandi, Gaos Tipki Amanda, Yulia Aminuyati Aminy, Aisyah Ana, Elly Ananda Dwi Andini Putri Mediani Andriani, Putu Eka Andriani, Putu Eka Angga Kusuma Bayu Viargo Anies Yulinda W Anisa Laila Azhar Any Tsalasatul Fitriyah Ardi Kurniawan Ardi Kurniawan Ardiyanto, Figo Surya Ariyawan, Jovansha Aryati Aryati Aulia, Niswa Faizah Auliyah, Nina Azizah, Khansa Azzen, Fiyadika Amalia Nurizah Baihaqi, Mochamad Baihaqi, Muhammad Rizaldy Baktiar Aris Belindha Ayu Ardhani Brenda Bunga Prasenda Budi Lestari Budi Lestari Budijono, Gabriella Agnes Christopher Andreas D Lestari Darmawan, Kezia Eunike Dhohirrobbi, Achmad Dhyana Venosia Dhyana Venosia Diah Puspita Ningrum Diana Ulya Dita Amelia Dita Amelia, Dita Dzuria Hilma Qurotu Ain Hilma Easyfa Wieldyanisa, Ezha Eko Tjahjono Elfhira Juli Safitri Fachrian, Muhammad Nadhil Faiza, Atikah Faizun, Nurin Fajrina, Sofia Fajrina, Sofia Andika Nur Fakih Hamdani Fania, Azzahra Farida Farida Fatmawati Fatmawati Fatmawati Fatmawati Fauziah, Nathania Feevrinna Yohannes Harianto Fibryan, Muhammad Hilmi FIRMANSYAH, MOCHAMMAD Fitri Syaharani, Amadea Fitri, Marfa Audilla Fitri, Marfa Audilla Fizkadana, Canada Mewa Galih Yoga Santiko Gaos Tipki Alpandi Halimatuzzahro, Fitria Hammami, Martha Sayyida Hariadi, Salsabila Niken Hendrawan, Ardana Tegar Herdianto, Muhammad Hendra Hidayat, Rizky Ismaul Uyun Horidah Horidah Huda, Mi'rojul I Nyoman Budiantara Insania Dewanty, Sanda Islamudin, Mohamad Mujahid IZZAH, NURUL Januarta, R. Arya Julianto, Agnes Happy Juniar, Muhammad Althof Kamiilah, Nadhira Safa Kamil, M. Aqil Zaidan Kamila, Yasmin Kinanti Hanugera Gusti Kuni Safingah Larasati, Berliani Lensa Rosdiana Safitri Lilik Hidayati, Lilik Listyaningsih Listyaningsih M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Mahadesyawardani, Arinda Mahadesyawardani, Arinda Marbun, Barnabas Anthony Philbert Marisa Rifada Marthabakti, CitraWani Maulidya, Utsna Rosalin MAYA MUSTIKA KARTIKA SARI, MAYA Mediani, Andini Putri Mediani, Andini Putri Melati Tegarina Mohamad David Hermawan Muhammad Falah El Fahmi Muhammad Fikry Al Farizi Mutiara Aisharezka Mutiara Arlisyah Putri Utami Muzakki, Naufal N. A. Aprilianti Nadia Murbarani Nahar, Muhammad Hafidzuddin Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siregar Nia Saurina Nitasari, Alfi Nur Nur Azizah Rahayu Ningsih Prasetyo, Juan Krisfigo Pratama, Bagas Shata Pratama, Fachriza Yosa Purnama, Titania Faisha Putra, Mochamad Rasyid Aditya Qumadha Zainal Abidin Rahayu, Rizky Dwi Kurnia Rahma, Alma Khalisa Rahmatika, Nabila Syahfitri Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhanti, Aulia Ramadhina, Fidela Sahda Ilona Ramadhita, Ghina Recylia, Rien Reiza Sahawaly Rico Ramadhan, Rico Rimuljo Hendradi Riries Rulaningtyas Rizza Sulistiana Rohim, Achmad Yazid Busthomi S, Salma Bethari Andjani Sa'idah, Andini Sabrina Falasifah Safitri, Lensa Rosdiana Salsabilla, Shafira Salsabylla Nada Apsariny Sasmia Desinta Wulandari Sa’idah, Andini Sediono, Sediono Sely Novika Norrachma Septia Sari, Ni Wayan Widya Setyawan, Muhammad Daffa Bintang Setyowati, Raden Roro Nanik Siagian, Kimberly Maserati Siburian, Cynthia Anggelyn Sihite, Rivaldi Siregar, Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siti Maizul Habibah Slamet Muchsin Soewignjo, Steven Sofia Andika Nur Fajrina Subiyanto, Marcel Laverda Sufyan Ats Tsauri Sugha Faiz Al Maula Suliyanto Sunariyanto, Sunariyanto Suryono, Alda Fuadiyah Suryono, Alda Fuadiyah Suwarno Suwarno Syahputra, Bimo Okta Syifaun Nadhiro Teguh Susanto Thohari, Habib Nihla Tiani Wahyu Utami Toha Saifudin Toha Saifudin Trias Novia L. Trisa, Nadya Lovita Hana Ulandari, Kartini Putri Ulya, Diana Umi Tri Ruhana Usmi, Rianda Valida, Hanny Wahyuli, Diana Warsono Warsono Widyangga, Pressylia Aluisina Putri Widyawati, Ayu Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa Wulandari, Nuryuliana Yolanda Swastika Yolanda Swastika Yonani Zahrotul Azizah Zhafira, Azizah Atsariyyah Zidni Ilmatun Nurrohmah