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Muhammad Ibrahim
STMIK Amikom Yogyakarta
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Journal : International Journal of Public Health Science (IJPHS)

 1 
The accuracy of forecasting results of the Box-Jenkins method for time series analysis on the number of pneumonia patients Radhiah, Sitti; Fakhri, Muhammad Miftach; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Rosidah, Rosidah; Fadhilatunisa, Della; Arifiyanti, Fitria; Soeharto, Soeharto; Vidiyanto, Vidiyanto
International Journal of Public Health Science (IJPHS) Vol 12, No 4: December 2023
Publisher : Intelektual Pustaka Media Utama

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijphs.v12i4.22961

Abstract

This study was quantitative with a non-reactive or unobstructed approach using Time Series analysis with the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method on secondary data. From secondary data, 1, 3, and 6 monthly data simulations were carried out. Each simulation data was divided into two groups: the first group of initialization data for 2016 – 2019 and the second group of actual data for 2020. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of forecasting results using the Box- Jenkins method on the number of pneumonia sufferers at Kamonji Public Health Center, Palu. The 1-monthly data simulation amounted to 48-time series as initialization data, obtained the appropriate forecasting model, namely ARIMA (1,1,1), then forecasting was done, and the results obtained were 289,166 patients with pneumonia. There are 16-time series simulations for 3-monthly data as initialization data and 6-monthly simulations totaling two-time series for initialization data, not finding a suitable model for forecasting. In conclusion, no data simulation gets the right result on the number of pneumonia sufferers because it gets more forecasting results than the actual data. Suggestions that can be given in this research are to use data that is more than five years old.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahmat Abdullah, Mariani Ahlisan, Muzakkir Ahma, Caliesta Widi Akbar, Miftahul Hambali Ali, Akbar Alifiah M, Raden Roro Fadhillah Amaliyah, Jihadatun Anandita, Septian Ragil Andi Muhammad Yusuf, Andi Muhammad Andin Andiyasari Anggareni, Kumala Fitria Aries, Mulhin Arifiyanti, Fitria Aswidy Wijaya Cipta Ayu Purnama, Andi Oktami Dewi Artha Azis, Nurzaman Aziz, Nurzaman B, Mesra Bangash, Saqib Hussain Bayhaki, Imam Charlos, Leo Corina D. S. Riantoputra Dana, Usman Darwis, Tri Wijaya Daud, Azlina Della Fadhilatunisa Dianingsih, Nila Djailani, Puspita Djamada, Mayawi Djibu, Rusdin Draman, Samsul Em Sutrisna Ergen, Burhan Fadinah, Siti Rosyidah Fatimah Zahro Fatmawati Fatmawati Fauzi, Ahmad Hasan Fikriadi, Ahmad Bagas Firman Yasa Utama Gunardi Gunardi Hafidhah, Nor Jinan Hariri, Mohammad Rafiq Herlina Herlina HERU SISWANTO Hudyah Astuti Sudirman Hussain, Amjad Icam Sutisna Irwan Irwan Irwansyah Irwansyah Isa, Abd. Hamid kantu, nur indriyani Karnain, Nurain Komarudin Achmad lahay, rahmat Li, Fan-Dan Lia Amelia Linna Ismawati, Linna Lose, Risna Luthfi Ardhian, Nur M. Miftach Fakhri Machrus Ali Maharani, Raden Roro Fadhillah Alifiah Mahendri, Wisnu Mahindra, Haidil Mamiek Nur Utami Marliyanti, Resti Marsha Anindita, Marsha Maulana, Abdul Md. Isa, Muhammad Lokman Misran Rahman Moh. Ihsan Husnan Mohamad Zubaidi Muhammad Andi Muhammad Firdaus Muhammad Husen, Muhammad Muhlasin, Muhlasin Musthofiyah, Ayu Nasir, Jumadi Noor Jannah, Noor Nuraini, Aisyah Afifah Nurhikmah Nurhikmah Nurhikmah Padang, Welly Liku Paruda, Varenzi Tristantino Pathuddin, Hikmawati Pengestu, Bagus Pramesti, Salsabila Ayu Purnama, Andi Oktami Dewi Artha Ayu Rahmah, Ghina Maulida Rahmasari, Fenny Ramadhan, Dannel Ramadhani, Ahmadi Irsyad Rizkytama, Gunung Ridho Rochmadina Suci Bestari Rosidah Rosidah Rustam Efendi Samsul, Putriyani Sari, Dwintya Setiyowati, Endah Shabrina, Ahda Shahadan, Siti Zuhaidah Sinring, Abdullah Siti Nurhasanah Sitti Radhiah Soeharto Soeharto Suparman Suparman Tabange, Siskawati Tando, Arjal Tang, Wen-Wei Taqiyuddin, Akhmad Tiara, Amanda Tobing, Clara Ignatia Tungkagi, Donald Qomaidiasyah Vidiyanto, Vidiyanto Villarico, Johndex Emanuel S. Wahyudi, Hadi Wei, Chen-Yang Yakob Napu Zakiya, Nathan Luth Zhaki, M. Nur Zulkarnain Anu