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Journal : Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics

Pengeluaran Pariwisata dan Karakteristik Sosial Demografi Rumah Tangga di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Sri Subanti; Arif Rahman Hakim
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 1, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v1i1.24120

Abstract

The study about tourism expenditure had been one of the important things in the formulation of tourism development, such as marketing analysis, strategies, and policies. Based on this condition, the purpose of our paper wants to know about the determinants of tourism expenditure at households level based on their demographic characteristics. The findings of this paper, (1) the important factors affecting household tourism expenditure are marital status, sex, household income per capita, education for heads of households, the length of study for household members in average, number of households, urban-rural, and industrial origin for head of household; (2) variables that are positively related to tourism expenditure are marital status, age, education, number of household, household income per capita, the length of study for household members in average, urban-rural, and home ownership. This paper suggest that the local governments should give an attention on households demographic characteristics to formulate the tourism marketing and the tourism policies.Keywords : tourism expenditure, demographic characteristics, households
Implementasi Text Mining Pada Analisis Sentimen Pengguna Twitter Terhadap Marketplace di Indonesia Menggunakan Algoritma Support Vector Machine Dyah Auliya Agustina; Sri Subanti; Etik Zukhronah
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 3, No 2 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v3i2.44337

Abstract

In this digital era, technology development has changed the behavior of society from buy offline to online. One of this behavioral changes is marked by the growth of global marketplace including in Indonesia. The big marketplaces in Indonesia that have received a lot of public response on social media are Tokopedia, Shopee, and Bukalapak. This research determines the public sentiment toward both the service and issues surrounding these three marketplaces on media social especially Twitter. Public opinion is classified into a positive or negative sentiment. The data used in this study is obtained from Twitter API (Application Programming Interface) using keyword Shopee, Tokopedia, and Bukalapak. Preprocessing texts are divided into five steps: cleansing, case folding, stemming, stopwords, and tokenizing. Training and testing data are divided using k-fold cross validation method, while visualization the characteristic of text is using word cloud. Research shows that public are posting tweet more positive sentiment than negative one. The perfomance of classification shows that the best G-mean and AUC value for Bukalapak testing data are 0.85 and 0.86 in the first fold. While the best G-mean and AUC value for Shopee testing data are 0.76 and 0.77 in the seventh fold and the best G-mean and AUC value for Tokopedia testing data are 0.82 and 0.83 in the sixth fold.Keywords : sentiment analysis, marketplace, support vector machine, twitter
Peramalan Data Inflow dan Outflow Uang Kartal Bank Indonesia Provinsi DKI Jakarta Menggunakan Model ARIMAX dan SARIMAX Atika Amalia; Etik Zukhronah; Sri Subanti
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.45673

Abstract

Abstract. DKI Jakarta Province plays a crucial role as the center of government and economy in Indonesia. The description of currency inflows and outflows is highly required before Bank Indonesia formulates the appropriate policies to control the circulation of money. The monthly data of currency inflow and outflow of Bank Indonesia of DKI Jakarta show a significant increase in each year particularly before, during, and after Eid al-Fitr. The determination of Eid al-Fitr does not follow the Gregorian calendar but based on the Islamic calendar. The difference in the use of the Gregorian and Islamic calendars in a time series causes a calendar variation. Thus, the determination of Eid al-Fitr in the Gregorian calendar changes as it goes forward eleven days each year or one month every three years. This study aims to obtain the best model and forecast currency inflows and outflows of Bank Indonesia DKI Jakarta using the ARIMAX and SARIMAX models. The study used in-sample data from January 2009 to December 2018 and out-sample data from January to October 2019. The best model was selected based on the smallest out-sample MAPE value. The result showed that the best forecasting model of inflow was ARIMAX (1,0,1). Meanwhile, the best forecasting model for outflow was SARIMAX (2,0,1)(0,0,1)12.Keywords: ARIMAX, calendar variation, forecasting, SARIMAX
Early Detection of South Korean Financial Crisis using MS-GARCH Based on Term of Trade Indicator Husna Afanyn Khoirunissa; Sugiyanto Sugiyanto; Sri Subanti
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.49169

Abstract

Abstract. The 1997 Asian financial crisis, which occurred until 1998, had a significant impact on the economies of Asian countries, including South Korea. The crisis brought down the South Korean currency quickly and sent the economy into sudden decline. Because the impact of the financial crisis was severe and sudden, South Korean requires a system which able to sight crisis signals, therefore that, the crisis will be fended off. One in all the indicators that can detect the financial crisis signals is that the term of trade indicator which has high fluctuation and change in the exchange rate regime. The mixture of Markov Switching and volatility models, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), or MS-GARCH could explain the crisis. The MS-GARCH model was built using data from the South Korean term of trade indicator during January 1990 until March 2020. The findings obtained in this research can be inferred that the best model of the term of trade is MS-GARCH (2,1,1). Term of trade indicator on that model could explain the Asian monetary crisis in 1997 and also the global monetary crisis in 2008. The smoothed probability of term of trade indicators predicts in April till December 2020 period, there will be no signs of the monetary crisis in South Korea.Keywords: financial crisis, MS-GARCH, South Korea, term of trade indicator
Analisis Faktor yang Berpengaruh terhadap Waktu Survival Pasien Penyakit Ginjal Kronis menggunakan Uji Asumsi Proportional Hazard Assyifa Lala Pratiwi Hamid; Sri Subanti; Yuliana Susanti
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 5, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v5i1.48121

Abstract

Chronic kidney disease is a disease whose risk of death is always increasing. This disease was ranked as the 13th leading cause of death in Indonesia in 2017. One of the successful managements of chronic kidney disease can be seen from the possibility of survival of patients with chronic kidney disease. To identify the probability of survival of an object, survival analysis is used. One method of survival analysis that can be used to determine the survival time of patients with chronic kidney disease is Cox regression. Cox regression must satisfy the proportional hazard assumption, where the ratio of the two hazard values must be constant with time. The graphical method, namely the log-log graph, can be used to test the proportional hazard assumption, but the results are only used as a provisional estimate. In this study, the goodness of fit test was used to test the assumptions by calculating the correlation between the Schoenfeld residuals and the survival time rank. In conclusion, the variables of hypertension and haemodialysis frequency meet the proportional hazard assumption.Keywords: chronic kidney disease; Cox regression; goodness of fit; log-log graph; proportional hazard assumption
Model Simulation of Continuous Time Markov Chain Susceptible Infected Recovered-Bacterial Population for Cholera Disease Aulia Maulani Syifa Nur Hidayati; Respatiwulan Respatiwulan; Sri Subanti
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 6, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v6i1.71801

Abstract

Epidemic is an outbreak of an infectious disease rapidly in a population at a certain place and time. Epidemic models are used to explains the spread pattern of disease. The continuous time Markov chain susceptible infected recovered-bacterial population in the aquatic reservoir (CTMC SIR-B) model is a stochastic model, which considers the effect of bacterial population. The human population are classified into 3 groups. There are susceptible, infected, and recovered groups. Then, there are bacterial population which can infectious the cholera disease to human. CTMC SIR-B model considers treatment and water sanitation parameters. The spread of cholera disease can be modeled as CTMC SIR-B. Cholera is an acute intestinal infectious disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Cholera can be transmitted through the human digestive system. The symptoms of cholera disease are diarrhea, vomiting, and dehydration. The dehydration if not handled properly, may cause death. The aims of this research are to build and simulate the CTMC SIR-B model for cholera disease. The result of the model simulation shows that there is no significant difference between various values of treatment and water sanitation parameters. The pattern of the cholera disease spread describes that the transmission of cholera can occur from human to human even though there is no population of bacteria in the aquatic reservoir.Keywords: cholera; ctmc sir-b; epidemic model; stochastic. 
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Abdul Aziz Abdul Aziz Abdul Aziz Hidayat Achmad Nurrofiq Achmad Nurrofiq Adi Wicaksono, Nanda Adigama Tri Nugraha Aflich Yusnita Fitrianna Aflich Yusnita Fitrianna Agus Supriyanto Ahmad Abdul Mutholib Aji Susanto Amalia Zulvia Widyaningrum Amanda, Nabila Tri Ambarawati, Mika Amiratih Siti Aisyah Andhika, Niken Dwi Anggraira, Attilah Suci Annisa Swastika Annur, M. Firman Anwar Ardani Aprilia, Nabila Churin Arianto, Febri Arif Rahman Hakim Arif Rahman Hakim Arif Rahman Hakim Arif Rahman Hakim Arifa Apriliana Arifa Apriliana, Arifa Ariska Yuliana Putri Ariska Yuliana Putri Arsita Anggraeni Pramesti Arum Dwi Rahmawati Dwi Rahmawati, Arum Dwi Rahmawati Dwi Assyifa Lala Pratiwi Hamid Astuti, Arinda Tri Astuti, Indra Puji Atika Amalia Attilah Suci Anggraira Aulia Maulani Syifa Nur Hidayati Aulia Rizki Destarani Ayu Rahmawati Bastian Al Ravisi Brilliyanti, Fanny Brilliyanti, Fanny Budi Santosa Budi Santosa Budi Santosa Budi Usodo Budi Usodo Budi Usodo Budi Usodo Budi Usodo Budi Usodo Budi Usodo Budi Usodo Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono, Budiyono Budiyono, Budiyono Danar Supriadi Desi Tri Utami, Desi Tri Diana Tri Purnamasari Dini Yuniarti Dwi Ambarwati, Dwi Dwi Retnowati Dwi Retnowati Dyah Auliya Agustina Endang Widiyastuti Era Hervilia Etika, Erdyna Dwi Exacta, Annisa Prima Fajar Suryatama Farida Nurhasanah Fhadilla, Nahdatul Fitri Apriyani Pratiwi, Fitri Apriyani Fitri Era Sugesti Fitria, Camelina Fitriana Anggar Kusuma Fitriana, Laila Getut Pramesti Giant Aprisetyani Giant Aprisetyani H Hartatik, H Hendriyanto, Agus Hervilia, Era Husna Afanyn Khoirunissa Iffah, Rona Dhiya Layli Ikrar Pramudya Ikrar Pramudya, Ikrar Imam Sujadi Imam Sujadi Imam Sujadi Imam Sujadi Indra Raditya , Dionisius Intan Novia Sari Intan Novia Sari Irwan Susanto Isnaini, Bayutama Isnandar Slamet Isnandar Slamet Isnandar Slamet Isnandar Slamet, Isnandar Iwan Kurnianto Kadar, Jimmy Abdel Karina Pramitasari Karina Pramitasari, Karina Kartikaningtyas, Nafiqoh Elsa Katherine Her Pratiwi Khafittulloh Viqriah Khafittulloh Viqriah, Khafittulloh Khoiriyah, Nor Krisni Suhardiyani Kumarahadi, Brigitta Melati Kurniasih, Rini Kurniati, Edy Dwi Lestari, Fajar Lina Muawanah, Lina Mahmudah Titi Muanifah Mahmudah Titi Muanifah Mahmudati, Rina Maratu Shalikhah Maratu Shalikhah, Maratu Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana, Mardiyana Mardiyana, Mardiyana Marfuah, Ismiyati Mida Nurani Mika Ambarawati Mohamad Nur Fauzi Muhammad Bayu Nirwana Muhammad Wildan Fadilah Mulyadi Mulyadi Mulyadi Mulyadi Nabila Churin Aprilia Nais Qonita Salsabila Ningsih, Maya Kristina Nirwana, Muhammad Bayu Nopiana, Medi Nor Khoiriyah Novi Dya Meylasari Nugraha, Titis Jati Nugroho, Purwo Setiyo Nuraini, Latifah Nurudin, M. Pardede, Hilman Ferdinandus Permatasari, Dinda Agnes Prabowo, Haniftia Haqqiendini Pramesti, Arsita Anggraeni Prasasti, Berlyana Ayu Pratiwi, Fitri Apriyani pratiwi, hasih Proborini, Ellen Purna Bayu Nugroho Purnamasari, Anita Pusaka, Semerdanta Putra Adi Wibowo Putra Adi Wibowo Rachmawati, Intan Rahmita Ika Sari Raodatul Jannah Raodatul Jannah Rara Sugiarti Ratih Kusumaningrum Ratih Kusumaningrum Reka Pramukti Reka Pramukti, Reka Respati wulan Respatiwulan Respatiwulan Retno Anggraheni Ria Wahyu Wijayanti Rina Mahmudati Riyadi Riyadi Riyadi Riyadi Riyanto, Nandyar Fisthi Riyanto, Nandyar Fisthi Rizky Wahyudi Sandhy Prasetyo Tito Kurniawan Sandhy Prasetyo Tito Kurniawan, Sandhy Prasetyo Satrio Wicaksono Sudarman Savitri, Maria Endah Savitri, Maria Endah Septiana Wijayanti Setiaputra, Felix Indra Sri Adiningsih Sri Sulistijowati Handajani Sugesti, Fitri Era Sugianto Sugianto Sugiyanto - Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto, Sugiyanto Sujadi, Imam Sujadi, Imam Sujadi, Imam Sulandari, Winita Sumantri, Astri Wiliastri Susilotomoa, Dhestahendra Citra Titik Yuniarti Triyazulfa, Azkiya Umi Fadlilah, Umi Umi Supraptinah Umi Supraptinah, Umi Veronica Sri Wigiyanti Veronica Sri Wigiyanti Very Hendra Saputra Virlina Zuhanisani Wahyuni, Fina Tri Wahyuni, Fina Tri Wahyuningtyas, Widyana Wardani, Endang Purwati Wardani, Endang Purwati Widyana Wahyuningtyas Wihasti Imas Priyandani Wihasti Imas Priyandani, Wihasti Imas Winita Sulandari Winita Sulandari Winita Sulandari Winita Sulandari Wulandari, Lina Yadi Ardiawan Yadi Ardiawan Yudho Yudhanto Yudho Yudhanto Yudho Yudhanto, Yudho Yuliana Susanti Yuliana Susanti, Yuliana Yuniarti, Titik Yusnita Rahmawati Yusnita Rahmawati Zainal Arifin Zuhanisani, Virlina Zuhdha Basofi Nugroho Zuhdha Basofi Nugroho, Zuhdha Basofi Zukhronah, Etik