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Application of negative binomial regression in analyzing factors that influence stunting in toddlers Tamimi, Allifiyani; Husein, Ismail
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v7i1.22070

Abstract

Stunting is a growth and development disorder caused by a lack of nutrition. This research aims to determine the significant factors that influence cases of stunting among toddlers in North Sumatra province in 2022. By using Negative Binomial Regression, we obtained factors that have a significant influence on the incidence of stunting among toddlers in North Sumatra province. The research results obtained show that the variables of the number of toddlers who are given exclusive breastfeeding, the number of toddlers who have inadequate access to sanitation, and the number of toddlers who receive Complete Basic Immunization will have a significant effect on stunting cases in toddlers in Sumatra Province in 2022. This can be seen from the P-values of each variable that significantly influences the incidence of stunting in toddlers: 0.0285 (x1), 0.0525 (x3), and 0.0452 (x6).
Financial mathematics of pension funds using entry age normal and projected unit credit methods Maysarah, Maysarah; Husein, Ismail
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v7i2.23738

Abstract

ASN is an abbreviation for State Civil Apparatus. ASN is a term for professions that work under the auspices of government agencies at both the central and regional levels. This regulation of rights and obligations is a form of state intervention in the regulation of ASN. In implementing the AAUPB (general principles of good government) ASN Law, it was found that there were differences in the rights and obligations of PNS and PPPK. According to Article 21 of the ASN Law, civil servants have the right to receive salaries, allowances, holidays, old age security, protection, and increased qualifications. Meanwhile, according to Article 22, PPPK has the right to receive salary allowances, holidays, protection, and competency development. A very significant difference in the rights that PPPK does not receive is pension and old-age security. Based on this law, this research aims to provide a general overview of the pension calculations that will be received by PPPK using the EAN and PUC methods, so that of these two methods, which method is better for the number of normal contributions and actuarial obligations for participants and agencies between EAN and PU? Based on the calculation results, the method PUC (Project Unit Credit) is more suitable to use because there is no significant difference between normal contributions and actuarial obligations, so it can be profitable for both parties.
Bellman-ford and greedy algorithms to optimize the shortest route of PT. TIKI Jalur Nugraha Ekakurir (JNE) Putri Harahap, Riska Evita; Husein, Ismail
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v7i2.23792

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to find a comparison of Bellman-Ford and Greedy algorithms to optimize the shortest route of PT Tiki Jalur Nugraha Ekakurir (JNE). Bellman-Ford and Greedy algorithms are two algorithms that are often used in finding the shortest distance or optimal solution on a weighted graph. This research will be carried out at the JNE Medan Representative Office located on Jl. SM Raja Km 10.5 Amplas Trade Center Complex Blok F-10, while the type of research that will be used in this paper is applied research. The results of the study indicated the selection of the Bellman-Ford method because the Bellman-Ford method provides a more optimal route in terms of distance. Where the total initial distance used by PT Tiki Jalur Nugraha Ekakurir (JNE) is 20.5 km through routes including A→C → D → E → G→ H → J→ K→ L → N → O → P → R. While the total distance from the results of the new route sequence using the Bellman-Ford algorithm is 17.3 km by going through routes including A→B→D→E→F→H→I→K→L→M→O→Q→R And the total distance of the new sequence results using the Greedy algorithm is 17.5 km by going through routes A→B → D → E → F→ H → J→ K→ L → N → O → Q → R. This shows an efficiency of 15% in comparing existing routes with routes resulting from data analysis using Bellman-Ford.
OPTIMIZATION OF INTEGRATED PLANTING COSTS USING THE KUHN TUCKER METHOD Wahyu Dianti, Ika Thrisna; Dur, Sajaratud; Husein, Ismail
JURNAL PEMBELAJARAN DAN MATEMATIKA SIGMA (JPMS) Vol 11, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Keguruan dan Ilmu pendidikan (FKIP) Universitas Labuhan Batu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36987/jpms.v11i1.7276

Abstract

The aim of this research is to seek optimization of rice planting costs using the method Kuhn Tucker. The method used in this research is method Kuhn Tucker. Method Kuhn Tucker is a method used to find the optimum point of a function without having to look at its linear or nonlinear properties. The solution to this method is to substitute it into the method Lagrange and must be given sufficient conditions Kuhn Tucker. Research results with methods Kuhn Tucker The Laswan Rice Refinery gets optimization of used costs with 24.96 Kg, 6.24 sacks of fertilizer, 3.7 Kg of pesticide and 1.3 HOK wages, so the optimal cost used is Rp. 11.875.370.00,- a hectare.Key Words: Kuhn Tucker Method, Lagrange Method, Optimization, Cost, Rice 
Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) Modeling of Tuberculosis (TB) in North Sumatra Ayunda, Afrila; Husein, Ismail; Faigle, Ulrich
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 9, No 1 (2025): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v9i1.25006

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health challenge in North Sumatra, Indonesia, necessitating precise statistical modeling to understand its spatial patterns and associated risk factors. This study applies three statistical approaches — Poisson Regression, Negative Binomial Regression (NBR), and Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) — to investigate the distribution of TB cases across 33 districts and cities in North Sumatra in 2022. An overdispersion test revealed significant variance, indicating the inappropriateness of the Poisson model. The NBR model identified the number of medical personnel as the sole significant covariate, yielding an AIC of 478.31. A Breusch–Pagan test confirmed significant spatial heterogeneity across areas, justifying the use of GWNBR. The GWNBR approach captured spatially varying relationships between TB incidence and covariates, providing more localized insights and yielding an AIC of 512.34. The findings highlight the importance of adopting spatially adaptive methods when modeling disease patterns, allowing for targeted, area-specific public health interventions.
Model Koefisien Bervariasi Spasial Bayesian untuk Memperkirakan Risiko Relatif Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue di Kota Medan Rahmat Hutapea; Husein, Ismail
Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 5 No. 02 (2025): Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika - Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas San Pedro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59632/leibniz.v5i02.586

Abstract

Penelitian ini membahas penerapan model Spatially Varying Coefficient berbasis pendekatan Spasial Bayesian untuk mengestimasi risiko relatif (Relative Risk/RR) penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Kota Medan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk: (1) mengidentifikasi tren kasus DBD di Kota Medan; (2) mengakomodasi variasi spasial dalam data serta memberikan estimasi risiko relatif yang lebih akurat antarwilayah; dan (3) menganalisis distribusi spasial risiko relatif kasus DBD di setiap kecamatan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder berupa data kasus DBD tahun 2022–2023 dari Dinas Kesehatan Kota Medan, serta data demografi dan lingkungan seperti kepadatan penduduk, jumlah tenaga kesehatan, dan fasilitas kesehatan. Analisis data dilakukan dengan pendekatan Bayesian menggunakan model Spatially Varying Coefficient untuk menangkap heterogenitas dan ketergantungan spasial. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model yang dikembangkan mampu menghasilkan estimasi risiko relatif yang informatif dan akurat, serta dapat digunakan untuk mendukung perencanaan strategi pencegahan dan pengendalian DBD yang lebih tepat sasaran. Selain itu, penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi metodologis dalam pengembangan analisis spasial di bidang epidemiologi dan kesehatan masyarakat.
Optimization of LPG Distribution on VRP Using Cheapest Insertion Heuristics Algorithms and Dynamic Programming Aisyah, Siti; Husein, Ismail
Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Vol 7 No 3 (2025): Edisi September
Publisher : FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jm.v7i3.9694

Abstract

Determining the most efficient distribution route often encounters difficulties, especially at the LPG gas agency of PT. Cahaya Mentari Bumi Perkasa, where routes are primarily selected based only on the drivers' intuition. The firm manages 35 distribution sites with 3 fleets, each capable of holding 560 cylinders. This study seeks to identify the most efficient distribution route and assess the distribution costs of the company's existing route in comparison to the proposed route, utilizing the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) model, constrained by vehicle capacity and fluctuating demand, known as the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP). The methodology employs the Cheapest Insertion Heuristics (CIH) algorithm to generate the first solution and utilizes Dynamic Programming (DP) as the precise technique for optimal route refinement. The findings indicate that employing Dynamic Programming to enhance the Cheapest Insertion Heuristics method effectively optimizes distribution routes, resulting in roughly 28% reduction in trip distance, 8.2% decrease in journey time, and 19,9% reduction in distribution expenses. The improvement decreased the number of trips from 9 to 8, resulting in enhanced fleet utilization.
Analisis Model Matematika pada Penanggulangan Pencemaran Udara Adella Aulia Mukti; Husein, Ismail; Aprilia, Rima
Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 5 No. 02 (2025): Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika - Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas San Pedro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59632/leibniz.v5i02.630

Abstract

Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode pemodelan matematika berbasis data sekunder dari Dinas Lingkungan Hidup (DLH) Kota Medan. Data mencakup konsentrasi karbon monoksida (CO), karbon dioksida (CO?), dan oksigen (O?) pada empat kawasan berisiko tinggi pencemaran, yaitu kawasan industri, perkantoran, permukiman, dan area dengan kepadatan kendaraan tinggi. Model yang diterapkan adalah Vector Autoregression (VAR), yang mampu menangkap hubungan dinamis antarvariabel tanpa perlu membedakan variabel endogen dan eksogen. Sebelum pemodelan, dilakukan uji stasioneritas dengan Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), penentuan lag optimal, serta uji kausalitas Granger. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya tren peningkatan konsentrasi CO, penurunan CO?, dan kenaikan moderat kadar O?. Model VAR yang dibangun memiliki akurasi yang baik dengan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 7,85%, sehingga efektif digunakan untuk peramalan jangka pendek pencemaran udara. Dengan demikian, pemodelan ini dapat menjadi dasar analisis dan perumusan strategi penanggulangan pencemaran udara di Kota Medan.
Zero Inflated Negative Binomial Regression In Malaria Cases In North Sumatera Dalimunthe, Riska Aulia; Husein, Ismail
JISTech (Journal of Islamic Science and Technology) Vol 10, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/jistech.v10i1.25658

Abstract

Malaria cases in North Sumatra Province continue to be a public health concern, with regional incidence rates varying. This investigation was designed to assess the variables that contribute to the prevalence of malaria in the province by employing the Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression model.. The response variable is the number of malaria cases, while the predictor variables are the number of impoverished individuals, population density, percentage of households with proper sanitation, number of healthy homes, and rainfall. For the year 2022, secondary data was acquired from the North Sumatra Provincial Health Office. Excess zero, overdispersion, and multicollinearity tests were conducted prior to the implementation of the ZINB model. The study results indicated that the ZINB model was more suitable than the Poisson and Negative Binomial models. The data indicates that the following variables have a substantial impact on malaria prevalence: an increase in the number of individuals living in poverty (X₁) by 7.8%, an increase in population density (X₂) by 1.8%, an increase in the percentage of households with adequate sanitation facilities (X₃) by 5.9%, and an increase in the percentage of rainfall (X₅) by 3.3%.
Application of Circular Regression Analysis on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Cases in North Sumatra Rinjani, Nazwa; Husein, Ismail
Jurnal Multimedia dan Teknologi Informasi (Jatilima) Vol. 7 No. 03 (2025): Jatilima : Jurnal Multimedia Dan Teknologi Informasi
Publisher : Cattleya Darmaya Fortuna

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54209/jatilima.v7i03.1645

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) continues to be one of the leading public health challenges in Indonesia, with North Sumatra experiencing a sharp increase to 8,541 reported cases in 2022. The recurring seasonal pattern of this disease necessitates an approach that can capture cyclic characteristics. Therefore, this study applied circular regression to examine the influence of time (expressed in monthly cycles), rainfall, and temperature on the distribution of DHF cases. The research utilized secondary data collected from the North Sumatra Provincial Health Office for case numbers and from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) for climate information. Monthly data were transformed into radians, followed by correlation testing and model construction to determine the strength of relationships. The resulting model demonstrated a high explanatory power with an adjusted R² value of 92.44%, indicating strong model fit. Among the independent variables tested, only the sine transformation of the month (sin α), which represents seasonal peaks and troughs, showed a statistically significant contribution to case variation (p < 0.001). In contrast, the cosine transformation (cos α), rainfall, and temperature were not significant predictors, most likely due to relatively stable climatic conditions and the lagged effects of rainfall on mosquito breeding. The model further identified August and September as the months with the highest risk of DHF, aligning with descriptive case data. These findings confirm that seasonal dynamics are the primary driver of dengue transmission in the region. The study concludes that circular regression is an effective analytical tool for diseases with cyclical patterns and can provide essential evidence for public health planning. Strengthening preventive actions and vector control in peak months is crucial to reducing the impact of DHF in North Sumatra.
Co-Authors Abdi, Hamdan Achyar Zein, Achyar Adella Aulia Mukti Adrya, M Rifqi Agusmanto J.B. Hutauruk Al Rizky, Muhammad Furqan Anandara, Aurelia Andayani Andini, Qonita Putri Anggraini, Arizka Anggreini, Yopie Puspita Arianti, Mei Yunina Arya Impun Diapari Lubis Astuti, Widya Tantri atika nadila Aulia, Nurissa Ayunda, Afrila Azura, Maudya Nur Azura, Silva Batubara, Nuriman Astuti Cindy Artika Cipta, Hendra Dalimunthe, Riska Aulia Dedy Juliandri Panjaitan Dewi, Ratna Sri Dewi, taslima Dinda Chairani Ditta Arsyilviasari Dur, Sajaratud Dur, Sajaratud Dur, Sajaratud Dur, Sajaratud Dwi Anggraini Dwi Lestari, Riani Efriliya Hafni Yuswinda Elis, Elis Citra Eliza, Novi Eva Yuliani Fadhillah, Nurul Faigle, Ulrich Faigle, Ulrich Fatharani Syahfitri Febrianti, Zelika Febriyanti, Chairina Fransiska, Sintia Frischa, Ledya Hanifah Dara Puspita Hanum, Syarifah Harahap, M. Rivan Febriansyah Harahap, Tramilta Salsabila Hasibuan, Hani Maulida Hendra Cipta Heni Pujiastuti Hidayah, Mega Nur Hsb, Sumawiyah Hutauruk, Agusmanto Ikhsan, Ramadhani Al Ilka Zufria Indah Hatika Lubis Indra Jaya Indra Jaya Intan Irfanilia Jihan Adelia Nasution Jumiati, Ety Junita Fadilah Jusmita Weriza Karadeniz, Ahmet Serdar Karadeniz, Mehmet Fatih Khairan marzuki Khairina Khairina, Khairina Khairul Purqon Khairun Nikmah Khairun Nisa Khoiriah Syahfitri Lingga, Eva Ridya Wanti Lubis, Arya Impun Diapari M Fakhariza M. Abdul Rizki Marwan Marwan Maya Sari Maysarah, Maysarah Mhd Ikhsan Rifki Mhd. Joni Marpaung Mingka, Muhammad Farhan Mutiara Amanda Nafila Zendhia Ulhaq Nasution, Hamidah Nasution, Hamidah Nasution, Hamidah . Nasution, Yanisa Noranizamardia Noranizamardia Novianti Nuhrul Huda, Ella Nur Aisyah Nur Atsilah Hasibuan Nur Hafizah Nuraini Ade Putri Lubis Nurmala, Anggi Nurul Huda Prasetya Nurul Khoiriah Hasibuan Ong, Aldi Maulana Pane, Maahfuzha Pane, Mahfuzha Panjaitan, Adelia Nopiazinda Br Panjaitan, Rio Anggara Pasaribu, Sarif Muda Pasya, Aulia Mumtazah Pratidina, Maulia Puan Salwa Afifah Putri Harahap, Riska Evita Putri Nilam Sari Rahayu, Atika Rahma Utami Rahmadani, Artika Rahmat Hutapea Rakhmawati, Fibri Rakhmawati, Fibri Rambe, Uci Kirani Riezky Meiliza Rima Aprilia Rima Aprilia Rima Aprilia Rima Aprilia Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari, Rina Filia Rina Widya Sari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Riningsih, Novia Rinjani, Nazwa Riri Syafitri Lubis Ritonga, Muhammad Iqbal Rizka Ramadani Sam Rizky, Fadhlan Roshihan Mawazzi Lubis RR. Ella Evrita Hestiandari Sabrina, Ladia Sabrina, Ladia Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur, Sajaratud Saputri, Ika Junia Saragih, Dewi Kentri Sari, Dinda Permata Sari, Linda Kumala Sari, Rina Filia Sari, Rina Widya Seprina, Dita Shedriko, Shedriko Siahaan, Maharani Putri Adam sihombing, dame ifa Sihombing, Dame Ifa Sinaga, Husnia Amro Br Sirait, Nurul Yusro Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri Siregar, R. Maisaroh Rezyekiyah Siti Aisyah Sitompul, Apri Yani Sri Ulfa Rahayu Suci Rachmadini, Haliza Syafitriani Syari, Isma Aulia Zamaakh Tamimi, Allifiyani Tri Kartika Chaniago Trima Lestari Umami, Fauzah Wahyu Dianti, Ika Thrisna Weber, Gerhard Wilhelm Widyasar, Rina Widyasar, Rina Widyasari, Rina Widyasari, Rina Widyasari, Rina Wulandari, Hamidah Yumna, Yaumi Yusra Habibah Laily