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All Journal Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia (Indonesian Journal of Agronomy) MANAJEMEN HUTAN TROPIKA Journal of Tropical Forest Management Jurnal Gizi dan Pangan Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Sodality: Jurnal Sosiologi Pedesaan Forum Pasca Sarjana Jurnal Ilmu Tanah dan Lingkungan Jurnal Planologi Sultan Agung Jurnal Pembangunan Wilayah dan Kota SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Jurnal Geografi : Media Informasi Pengembangan dan Profesi Kegeografian Geoplanning : Journal of Geomatics and Planning Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Agri-Informatika Jurnal Sumberdaya Lahan Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian JTSL (Jurnal Tanah dan Sumberdaya Lahan) Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management Journal of Regional and City Planning Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Agrokreatif Jurnal Ilmiah Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Tataloka Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik MAJALAH ILMIAH GLOBE Journal of Regional and Rural Development Planning Journal of Socioeconomics and Development Jurnal Penginderaan Jauh dan Pengolahan Data Citra Digital Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian Jurnal Sumberdaya Lahan Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences Multidiciplinary Output Research for Actual and International Issue (Morfai Journal) Jurnal Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan Makara Journal of Technology Journal Research of Social Science, Economics, and Management International Journal of Integrative Sciences International Journal of Multidisciplinary Approach Research and Science Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Jurnal Teknik Sipil GeoEco Jurnal Penginderaan Jauh dan Pengolahan Data Citra Digital
Baba Barus
Department Of Soil Science And Land Resources, Faculty Of Agriculture, IPB University, Darmaga Campus IPB Bogor, 16680, Indonesia
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Journal : geoeco

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SPATIAL MODELING OF LAND COVER DYNAMICS IN DKI JAKARTA CILIWUNG WATERSHED USING CA-MARKOV APPROACH Mohamad Mahfudz; Baba Barus; Asep Sapei; Bambang Pramudya Noorachmat
GeoEco Vol 12, No 2 (2026): GeoEco July 2026
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret (UNS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ge.v12i2.108804

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change driven by human activities has become a major factor influencing environmental dynamics, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas. This study aims to analyze LULC changes in the Ciliwung Watershed, DKI Jakarta, during the period 2010–2025 and to project future trends up to 2030. The study utilizes Landsat imagery with a spatial resolution of 30 meters, combined with a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach and the Cellular Automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. LULC classification was categorized into six classes, achieving an overall accuracy of 80% and a Kappa coefficient above 75%, indicating strong agreement. The results show a significant increase in built-up areas by 81.83% by 2030, accompanied by a decrease in open land by 18% and forest areas by 13.53%. Agricultural land and shrubland show slight increases of 1.57% and 0.82%, respectively, while water bodies remain relatively stable at 2.07%.  The expansion of built-up areas exerts considerable pressure on green spaces and reduces water infiltration capacity, thereby increasing the potential risk of flooding in the study area. These findings highlight the importance of implementing adaptive and sustainable spatial planning policies to control LULC changes and mitigate future environmental impacts.
Co-Authors A Akbar Achmad, Alfredian Ade Mirza Roslinawati Adi Jaya, Adi Afan Ray Mahardika Ake Wihadanto Akhmad Fauzi Akhmad Fauzi Alamin Yang First Alfin Murtadho Aminah, Mimin Andhi Trisnaputra Andrea Emma Pravitasari, Andrea Emma Andri Yushar Andria Ardhy Firdian Ardiyanto Maksimilianus Gai Arya Hadi Dharmawan Asep Sapei Asnelly Ridha Daulay Atang Sutandi Azis, Muh. Ikhsan Bakri, Subhan Bambang Hendro Trisasongko Bambang Juanda Bambang P. Noorachmat Bambang Pramudya Bambang Pramudya Noorachmat, Bambang Pramudya Bobby A. Palem Boedi Tjahjono Bratakusumah, Deddy S. Brigitta Audrynne Rombe Bunga Budi Mulyanto Budi Nugroho Budi Prasetyo Bustanul Arifin Cahyana, Destika Chiharu Hongo, Chiharu Corry Nurmala Danang Pramudita, Danang Darda Effendi Darmawan Darmawan Deddy S. Bratakusumah Deddy S. Bratakusumah Denis Muba Pandapotan Simanihuruk Desi Nadalia Dessy Arianti Destika Cahyana Diar Shiddiq Didit Okta Pribadi Didit Okta Pribadi Djuanda, Bambang Djuara P Lubis DP Tejo Baskoro, DP Tejo Drajat Martianto Dwi Maryanto, Dwi Dwi Putro Tejo Baskoro Dwi Ratnawati Christina Dyah Ita Mardianingsih Dyah R Panuju Dyah R. Panuju Dyah R. Panuju Dyah Retno Panuju Edy Djauhari Purwakusumah Eka Intan Kumala Putri Emilia Syafitri Endriatmo Soetarto Enni Dwi Wahjunie Erliza Noor Ernan Rustiadi Euis Sunarti Faris Rahmadian Febrianti, Nur Firdaus, Muhammad Firdaus Firman Fauzi Fitri Insani Fredian Tonny Nasdian Fredinan Yulianda Gatot Yulianto Gersony Miri Hana Indriana Hans Moravia Hari Agung Hari Agung Adrianto Hari Wijayanto Harisman Edi Harmes Harmes harmes harmes Hartono, Arif Herianto Hermanto Siregar Hernanda, Tiara Aprilia Putri Hidayah, Nursantri Hilda Nurul Hidayati Hongo , Chiharu Imas Sukaesih Sitanggang Indraprahasta, Galuh Syahbana Irzaman, Irzaman Iskandar Iskandar Iswandi Umar Iwan Kurniawan Khursatul Munibah Kukuh Murtilaksono Kukuh Murtilaksono Kukuh Murtilaksono Kukuh Murtilaksono Kukuh Murtilaksono Kusumastuti, Ayu Candra Kusumawati, Balkis Lala M Kolopaking Laode Syamsul Iman Latifah Kosim Darusman M Habibi Yadi Irawanata M Munawir Mahmud A. Raimadoya Mahmud A. Raimadoya Mazlan Mira Harimurti Mohamad Mahfudz Mohamad Mahfudz Mohamad Rafi Muhamad Firdaus Muhammad Ardiansyah Muhammad Fathahillah Dewantara Almismary Muhammad Hikmat Muhammad Munawir Syarif Muhammad Mu’min Fahimuddin Muhammad Zulfikar Nadia Shalehah Nandi Kosmaryandi NINA WIDIANA DAROJATI Nina Widiana Darojati Nindya Ayu Wardani Nur Febrianti Nur Febrianti Omo Rusdiana Purwanto, Moh Yanuar Jarwadi Purwono Purwono Puspita, Gita Qalbi, Andria Harfani Rahmi Fajarini Reni Kusumo Tejo Reni Kusumo Tejo Reza Hanjaya Ricky Ricky Ricky, Ricky Rifyan Ruman Rilus Kinseng Rini Ariani Amir Rizaldi Boer Romiyanto Romiyanto Sabri Effendy Setia Hadi Sigit, Gunardi Siska Amelia Sitanggang, Imas S. Siti Faizah Zauhairah Siti Nurisyah Soekmana Soma Sri Mulatsih Stanny, Yuri Ardhya Subhan Bakri Suci Sri Utami Sutjipto Sukiptiyah Sukiptiyah Sukiptiyah Sukiptiyah Sulung Wahyu Widodo Sumardani Kusmajaya Suria Darma Tarigan Suryadi Suryadi Suryadi Suryadi Suwardi Suwardi Syahbana, Galuh Syaiful Anwar Syamsul Arifin Taopik Ridwan Tb Iwan Mulyawan Tejo, Reni Kusumo Tenda, Edwin Tivianton, Tommy Andryan Tommi Tommi Tommi Tommi, Tommi Tommi, Tommi Tono, Tono Tuni, Muhd. Siraz Uciningsih, Winda Ugeng Wijanarko Umar Mansyur Untung Sudadi Vincentius P Siregar Wahyu Iskandar Werenfridus Taena Widada, Rasyid Widiatmaka Widiatmaka Yani Nurhadryani Yiyi Sulaeman Yoyoh Indaryanti Yuda Pringgo Bayusukmara Yunito, Muhammad Rahmanda Yuri Ardhya Stanny Yusuf, Sri Malahayati Zluyan Firdaus Afif