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Sales Forecasting Model for Indonesian Clothing MSMEs For Sales Strategy Optimization Using The Long Short-Term Memory Method Fawzi, Muhammad Ihsan; Pratomo, Laurensia Claudia; Isnawati, Dian; Chasanah, Nur; Kurniawan, Nadhifa Zahra
Jurnal Teknik Informatika (Jutif) Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): JUTIF Volume 7, Number 1, February 2026
Publisher : Informatika, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52436/1.jutif.2026.7.1.5339

Abstract

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in the clothing industry are one of the key pillars of the economy, contributing significantly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment. However, MSMEs face considerable challenges related to market competition, shifting consumer trends, and fluctuating demand. Advances in data analytics and machine learning offer solutions to improve sales forecasting accuracy, thereby supporting more effective business strategies. This study aims to develop a sales forecasting model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) tailored to the characteristics of clothing MSMEs in Indonesia. The research was conducted at Ananda Kids MSME in Purbalingga, using 30,885 daily transaction records collected over 23 months. The dataset included product categories, sales volume, and revenue, which were further processed through normalization, handling of missing values, and the addition of seasonal features. The LSTM model was designed with 128 neurons and evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings indicate that the LSTM model achieved high accuracy for certain product categories. The “Set” and “Children’s Fashion” categories recorded MAPE values below 10%, demonstrating the model’s effectiveness in forecasting stable sales patterns. In contrast, categories with high volatility, such as accessories, produced larger prediction errors. These results highlight that data quality and sales pattern stability are crucial factors in enhancing model performance. Overall, the study demonstrates that the application of LSTM holds significant potential in supporting strategic decision-making for MSMEs through more accurate sales forecasting. Beyond its practical contributions for business actors, the study also provides a basis for the development of digitalization policies for the MSME sector in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Achmaluddin, Nazar Adil Abdillah Afriyani, Luvi Dian Agus Manfaluthi Aji, Baburrohman Al-Anshori, Huzaimah Aldila Dinanti, Aldila Anandi, Normalita Rauffadilla Andi Wahju Rahardjo Anggraini, Lisa Siska Anik Supriani, Anik Anisa Nurina Aulia Anita, Rif'atul Annisa Efrilian Saepudin Ara Nugrahayu Nalawati Arifa, Nailatun Nahda Arri Handayani Artantojati, Sigit Astuty Lumbantoruan Atien Priyanti Azzahra, Hurum Benyamin, Evan Cahyaningrum Dadang Iskandar, Dadang Dana Indra Sensuse David Novan Setyawan, David Novan Dian Vitra Ismawati Diantono Abda’u, Prih Dini Rakhmawati Dova Akhbar Rahwi Gunandri Dwi Sembe Sigita Dwipayanti, Puteri Indah Eddy Maryanto Elin Cahyaningsih Emi Puasa Handayani Endang Setyowati Fajar Purwanto, Fajar Fandestika, Shafa Rizki Fatma Amilia, Fatma Fauziyah, Nabila Nur Fawzi, Muhammad Ihsan Ferbriana, Maria Guntur Satya Pramudya Hadi Purwanto, Nasrul Hazrullah Hidayat, Muhammad Miftachul Huzaimah Al-Anshor Ika Trisharyanti Dian Kusumowati Ipung Permadi Isnawati, Dian Joko Siswanto Joko Sulianto . . Kiftiyah Kiftiyah Kingkin Puput Kinanti Kurnia Indriyanti Purnamasari, Kurnia Indriyanti Kurniawan, Nadhifa Zahra Kurniawan, Yogiek Indra Laurensia Claudia Pratomo Luhita, Tiladela Lusa, Sofian M.Nur, Dany Miftah Manfaluthi, Agus Maulana Putri, Anisah Mohammad Rizky Pebrianto Nofiyati Nofiyati Nur Alfi Ekowati Nur Faiz, Muhammad Peni Indrayudha Pradana, Haris Kondang Prasetyo, Agus Subhan Puji Tri Lestari Rahardjo, Andi Wahju Ramaida, Rizka Amalia ROSYIDAH, NANIK NUR S Supratman Sabrina, Hafifa Intan Savage, Eileen Silvia Hendrayanti Sonya Brinda Sopi, Sopi Sri Wijayanti Sugianto, Victoria Angela Sukmiati, Dieny Supriyono Supriyono Teguh Cahyono Vera Virgia, Vera Victoria Angela Sugianto Wahyu Kristiningrum Wardani, Riska Aprilia Widiyawati, Rina Widya Anggraeni Windarti, Nuswantari Ayu Wulan Kurnianingtyas Wulandari, Octavia Yanuar E. Restianto Yusuf Falaq, Yusuf Ziadaturrohmah, Evi Zumrotun Nafiah