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The Effect of Export, Import, and Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Four ASEAN Countries (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines) in The Period 2017-2024 Anggraini, Pramuditya; Setyowati, Eni
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of exports, imports, and exchange rates on economic growth in four ASEAN countries Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines during the 2017-2024 period. The data used are secondary data obtained from official publications such as the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and other scientific sources. The analytical method applied is panel data analysis using Eviews 10 software. The models employed include the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM), with model selection tests conducted using the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test. The results show that the most appropriate model is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). Based on the partial test (t-test), the import and exchange rate variables have a significant effect on economic growth, while the export variable shows no significant influence. The Adjusted R² value of 0.437 indicates that 43.7% of the variation in economic growth is explained by the three independent variables, while the remaining 56.3% is explained by other factors outside the model. These findings suggest that exchange rate stability and the management of import activities play an important role in promoting economic growth in the ASEAN region.
Global Uncertainty and Indonesian Stock Performance: Evidence on JCI Volatility using ARCH-GARCH & ARDL Maruf, Muhammad Sulton; Setyowati, Eni
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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This research examines the influence of three dimensions of global uncertainty-Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), Global Geopolitical Risk (GPR), and the Global Financial Stress Index (GFSI) on the volatility of Indonesia's stock market, specifically the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Volatility is quantified employing a GARCH(1,1) model utilizing daily IHSG returns spanning from 2019 to 2025, subsequently transformed into monthly data for analytical purposes through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology, incorporating inflation and the Bank Indonesia Rate as domestic control variables. The Bound Test substantiates a long-term relationship between global uncertainty and IHSG volatility. Long-term estimations indicate that both GEPU and GFSI significantly amplify volatility, whereas GPR exerts a notable negative influence, implying that Indonesia functions as a relatively secure haven amid global geopolitical strife. Inflation mitigates volatility, while the BI Rate appears to be statistically insignificant. In the short-term context, only GFSI displays a direct impact. The substantial error correction term (-0.83) signifies a robust tendency toward equilibrium restoration. Overall, global systematic risks predominantly overshadow domestic factors in determining the volatility of Indonesia's financial market.
The Macroeconomic Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence From ASEAN-5 (1998-2023) Wahyudi, W; Setyowati, Eni
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables FDI, GDP, inflation, and real interest rates on export performance in ASEAN-5 developing countries during 1998-2023.Methodology: This study uses panel data regression with secondary data sourced from ASEAN-5 countries over a 26-years period. The model specification is based on the Chow and Hausman test, which determined the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) as the most appropriate model for estimation.Results: The test confirmed that the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) model, the results of this study proved that the FDI variable has a significant effect on exports with a negative effect, then the GDP and Inflation variables each have a positive effect on exports in developing ASEAN-5 countries, and for real interest rates do not have a significant effect on exports.Applications/Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by integrating four key macroeconomic indicators FDI, GDP, inflation, and the real interest rate into a single panel model for ASEAN-5 over 1998-2023, offering a broader perspective than prior single-variable or single-country studies. The findings show that export performance is primarily driven by production capacity and price stability, while the real interest rate is not a significant determinant. These results provide important policy implications for strengthening export strategies and managing FDI inflows, and they reinforce the Export-Led Growth framework while opening new discussion on the quality of FDI in ASEAN.
Analysis of Indonesia's Coffee Export Trade Patterns to ASEAN Countries in 2011-2024 Fauzan, Ahmad; Setyowati, Eni
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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Purpose: Coffee is a commodity that is very popular with the people at home and abroad. In Indonesia, coffee has economic value and is an attraction for an agrarian country. Where in the agricultural sector, especially in coffee commodities, Indonesia has many characteristics that other coffee does not have. This study aims to provide an overview of how coffee exports in Indonesia can affect state revenue, distance between countries and also exchange rates. Methodology: Using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) regression model, the Gravity model. Using panel data from all countries that joined ASEAN in 2011-2024. Based on the results of this study, it is shown that the GDP variables of the country of origin and the distance between countries have a significant negative influence on the value of Indonesian coffee exports.Results: Meanwhile, the variables of the GDP of the destination country and the exchange rate have a significant positive effect on the value of Indonesia's coffee exports.Applications/Originality/Value: The Gravity model using PPML regression provides much more accurate estimates in the context of bilateral trade data that are often zero, so that they can be used as a basis for other commodity trade policy analysis. Integrating exchange rate and distance factors simultaneously to see how these variables relate to the value of Indonesian coffee exports, enriching the economic literature of agricultural commodity trade. It offers an empirical basis for policymakers to develop more appropriate strategies to improve Indonesia's coffee export performance through exchange rate strengthening, logistics efficiency, and mapping market opportunities in ASEAN.
The Effect of CBDC Projects on Return on Assets of Euro-Zone and Non-Zone Banks in 2020-2024 Alviando Arangga; Eni Setyowati
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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This study aims to analyze the impact of the development of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) project on banking profitability performance, as measured by Return on Assets (ROA), in Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries during the 2020-2024 period. This study uses a quantitative method with a panel data regression approach, and the selected model based on the test results is the Common Effect Model (CEM). Secondary data were obtained from banks' annual financial reports, central bank publications, and official financial statistics sources. This study was tested using EViews 12. The variables tested include CBDC Proxy, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), and Non-Performing Loan (NPL). The results show that CAR has a positive and significant effect on ROA, while CBDC Proxy and NPL do not significantly affect ROA. These findings indicate that capital stability plays the largest role in supporting bank profitability, while CBDC projects in the development stage have not shown a direct impact on banking performance. Furthermore, the potential for disintermediation due to CBDC has not been seen to significantly affect bank revenue structure during the study period.
Determination of Human Development Index (HDI) in Malaysia (Year 1996-2022) Mohammad Ahfadz Irsadilah; Eni Setyowati
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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Purpose: This study aims to examine the effects of selected macroeconomic and social indicators on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Malaysia from 1996 to 2022.Methodology: This research applies a quantitative approach using annual time series data. The variables include economic growth (GDP), urbanization rate (UP), unemployment rate (UNEMP), real interest rate (RIR), and government health expenditure (HEALTHEXP). The data are analyzed using multivariate regression with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method.Results: The findings indicate that all variables simultaneously have a significant influence on Human Development Index, with an Adjusted R2 of 0,947. Urbanization and unemployment rates negatively and significantly effect human development. Economic Growth and real interest rates show positive but statistically insignificant effects. Government spending on health is found to have a significant negative impact on Human Development Index.Applications/Originality/Value: This study provides updated empirical evidence on the macroeconomic determinants of human development in Malaysia. The result offer policy relevant insights for controlling urbanization, reducing unemployment, and improving the effectiveness of health spending to enhance human development outcomes.
Gender Inequality and Economic Growth in The ASEAN Region: A Panel Data Approach Thohari, Indra Aji; Setyowati, Eni
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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This study examines the relationship between gender inequality, trade openness, and economic growth in eight ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia) from 2010 to 2023 using a panel data approach. The estimation results indicate that the Gender Inequality Index (GII) has a significant negative impact on GDP, highlighting the importance of gender equality for economic growth. Trade openness shows a positive and significant effect, while female labour force participation (FLFP) has a positive but statistically insignificant impact. These findings emphasise that a combination of public policies promoting gender equality and open economic strategies is essential for achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the ASEAN region.
Determinants of Inflation in Western Europe Lilis Ayu Widyaningsih; Eni Setyowati
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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This paper attempts to examine the impact of trade openness, economic growth (GDP), and gas price on inflation in Western European countries. Utilizing panel data from seven countries over the period 2020–2024, the research employs the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) as the most appropriate estimation approach, as determined by the Chow and Hausman tests. The results reveal that trade openness and gas price exert a significant positive influence on inflation, whereas economic growth shows no significant effect. These findings suggest that inflation in Western Europe is predominantly driven by external factors, particularly fluctuations in energy prices and global trade dynamics.
Determinants of Saving Rates in Japan Aziz, Sekar Anissa Hikmatul; Setyowati, Eni
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), labor force, and interest rates on savings rates in Japan during the period 2017 to 2024 in quarterly. In a dynamic economic context, people's saving behavior is one of the important indicators that influence economic stability and growth.Methodology: The analytical method used in this study is multiple regression analysis with the Error Correction Model (ECM). Data used in this study are sourced from the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance of Japan, and the World Bank.Results: The results show that in the short term, savings rates are significantly influenced by the labor force, where increasing labor force participation implies an increase in income and savings capacity.Applications/Originality/Value: In the long term, savings rates are significantly influenced by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), indicating that increasing national income encourages people to save more. However, interest rates show a negative influence on savings rates, where low interest rates tend to reduce people's incentives to save.
Analysis Of Factors Affecting the Human Development Index (HDI) in Singapore from 1998-2023 Farid, Muhammad; Setyowati, Eni
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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Abstract

This quantitative study aims to examine the impact of the elements that make up the Human Development Index (HDI)-which consists of Health (Life Expectancy), Education (Average Length of Schooling), and Standard of Living (Gross National Income)-on the HDI in Singapore from 1998 to 2023. Using time series data and applying econometric regression models, this study shows that these three aspects have a significant and positive contribution to HDI improvement. These findings confirm that Singapore's HDI, which has consistently been in the Very High category, is driven by successful investments in planned human capital development. The Health and Education variables have been proven to play an important role in maintaining the rate of HDI growth, reinforcing the view that sustainable human development is the key to national welfare and long-term economic resilience.
Co-Authors Adi Wijayanto Aditama, Rifki Yudha Affan Bagus Santoso Agung Fadhila Putra Agus Dwi Anggono Ahmad Fauzan Ainafaid, Deviani Aji, Farhan Wahyu Akhyak Aksel Rizky Ramadhan* Alamsyah - Albidin, Verendra Noveta Alfarizi Dwi Ismawan Alfin Arma Jaya Allya Rahma Faradilla Alviando Arangga Amrina Rosada, Amrina Ananda Nadhifah Yustikarinda Andriyani, Rachma Fadia Anggraini, Pramuditya Anisa, Aulia Nurul Anma Dias Vidiana Annisa Nur Hidayah Aqshal Bagus Syafatullah Arbaul Fauziah Ariyanto, Nanda Bagus Atfinia, Neiska Syifa Ayu Renita Azhar Alam Aziz, Sekar Anissa Hikmatul AZIZAH, SALWA NUR Bagas Aji Ramadhan Bagus Andrianto Danang Adi Surya Daryono Soebagiyo Daryono Soebagyo Daryono Subagyo Daryono Subagyo Denata, Vigita Liliyawati Dewi Puji Astuti Dewi, Reny Fitria Dhea Nabilla Rossani Didit Purnomo Difa Kusuma Dewa Dita Apriselia Ratna Shinta DL, Wuryaningsih Donny Indra Ardhiansyah Erna Wati Fadhitama Farhan Saputra Fadhly Ahmadian Fadhly Fadilla Anjarika Kuswisnu Wardani Fajar Rini Suhadi Fajar Widayat Novianto Fajar Widayat Novianto, Fajar Widayat Falah, Lina Faradilla, Allya Rahma Farhan Wahyu Aji Fatimah NH, Siti Favian Ardine Agathon Fernanda Jessica Sandy Fifi Ramadanti Fiky Nila Mustika Firly Meidhita Berliandini Fitya Mukti, Diah Afriani Gillbram Syakha Wahyu Jati Habib Bachtiar Haimah, Haimah Handayani, Sri Haniyah Zalsy Haslinda Yasti Agustin Hasmarin, Maulidyah Indira Hasmarini, Maulidiyah Indira Herry Purnama Ibrahim Sorie Kamara Ilham Hamdallah Inda Fresti Puspitasari Inez Angela Eva Maharani Isnaeni Hasna Hanisah Ita Iva Kuriah Jaya, Alfin Arma Juliansyah, Onny Karel Milliano Hendika keisha Jenny Maulida Nugraha Khair, Otti Ilham Khoiriyah, Sheni Umi Lia Sunny Nuraini Lili Septiyaningsih Lilis Ayu Widyaningsih Luh Putu Ratna Sundari M. Sholahuddin Maharani, Inez Angela Eva Mahbuba, Laila Ayu Maris, Indra Din Maruf, Muhammad Sulton Marwatika, Arum Maskur Cahyanto Maulidah IH Maulidiyah IH MaulidSitti Retno Faridatussalam Maulidyah Indira Hasmari Maulidyah Indira Hasmarini Mohammad Ahfadz Irsadilah Mu’awanah, Elfi Muhammad Arif Muhammad Arif Muhammad Arif Muhammad Farid Muhammad Hasanudin, Muhammad Muhammad Muntahibun Nafis Muhammad Sholahuddin Muhsin, Fikri Zakaria Muhtadi Muhtadi Mujiati Murni Asliyana Musrikah Mustika, Fiky Nila Muzakki Dwi Zulna, Aakif Nanang Purwanto Niastuti, Shintia Ningsih, Putri Ayu Ningsih, Sri Rahayu Nizam, Renaldi Sahrul Novariani Putri Rienadi Novia Atina Titania Nuphanudin, Nuphanudin Nurcholis, Achmad Fauzan Zain Ardhi Nurul Pratiwi Pertiwi, Mayang Umi Pramono, Wisma Angger Purwantoro - Puspita, Hapsari Ayu Putri Melinda Rahmawati Putri, Erlisse Kurnia Putri, Tasya Berliana Rafiq Azzam Al Afif Rafiqha Aulia Datau Rahmawati, Putri Melinda Raihanah Aisyah Oktaviani Ramadhan*, Aksel Rizky Ramadhani, Affni Ravakalista, Radista Renasya Caesar Javafelistca Repik Febriansah Riana Rika Rohmatin Rienadi, Novariani Putri Ries Wulandari, Ries Rifki Yudha Aditama Rini Kuswati Ristra Inez Salsabila Rossani, Dhea Nabilla Safira, Aulia Salma Salsabila Darojati Salman Al Farisi Sari, Riana Julihan Sari, Sandra Dwita Sela Gita Dewi Paramita Shafa Nabila Shinta, Dita Apriselia Ratna Sholati, Saharani Neitha Sidiq Setyawan Siti Aisyah Siti Fatimah NH Siti Fatimah Nurhayati Siti Masitoh Siti Nurhayati Siti Nurhayati Sitti Retno Faridatussalam Soepatini Sri Rahayu Ningsih Subagyo, Daryono Supriyani, Yustika Suratman, Asyifa Syauqi Syifa Arifatul Maula T Triyono Taman, Mona Refaat Tanti Azizah Thohari, Indra Aji Tiara Oktafia Parastika Trian Gigih Kuncoro Triyono, T Ummu Sholihah Verendra Noveta Albidin Vigita Liliyawati Denata Viqie Aria Kusuma Wahyudi, W Widawati, Yesi Wiguna, Aditama Chandra Willy Kurniawan Wulandari , Dita Wuri Nur Indah Sari Yoga Surya Nugroho Winarno Yuni Prihadi Utomo Yustika Supriyani Yustikarinda, Ananda Nadhifah Zahra Setia Ar Rasyiid Zuhdi , Muhammad Naufal