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Journal : International Journal of Engineering Continuity

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Rainfall Anomaly Analysis and Seasonal Climate Projection in Palembang City Using CHIRPS Data and Z-Score Method Mahsyurdin, Shofwan; Ermatita, Ermatita
International Journal of Engineering Continuity Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): IJEC
Publisher : Sultan Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58291/ijec.v5i1.456

Abstract

Using CHIRPS daily rainfall data (1981–2024) which is the standard climatological period according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which is at least 30 years, rainfall anomalies during the dry season (May–October) are analyzed using the Z-score statistical approach. The 2025 prediction scenario integrates moderate El Niño (SST +1.0) and negative IOD (–0.5) as correction factors for the climatological average. Anomalous rainfall values ​​will be converted into z-score values ​​if Z>0 then the value is above the average (wet/hot) and vice versa if Z<0 the value is below the average (dry/cold). The results of the study indicate a significant potential for negative anomalies (Z-score < 0) in most areas of Palembang, indicating a decrease in rainfall below normal levels, with the peak of the dry season projected in August–September 2025. For the rainfall anomaly value, it has been converted into a z-score value that has been explained using the formula so that the significant climate trend in 2024 is 0.34 according to the Standardized Rainfall Index (SPI) in the normal or mild condition category. Finally, the rainfall prediction graph for 2025 shows the final results of the analysis process, namely the highest rainfall of 369.173 mm in April and the lowest rainfall of 60.12 mm in August.  
Co-Authors Abdiansah, Abdiansah Adi Sutrisman Ahmad Fali Oklilas Ahmad Fali Oklilas Ahmad Sanmorino Aidil Putrasyah Al Farissi Albert Albert Aldin, Moehammad Alfarezy, Reza Ali Amran Ali Bardadi Ali Bardardi Ali Ibrahim Ali Ibrahim Allsela Meiriza, Allsela Andini Dwi Lestari Anita Desiani Apriansyah Putra Ari Wedhasmara Arnelawati Artika Arista Ayuputri, Niken Bambang Suprihatin Barlian Khasoggi Barlian Khasoggi Belly, Belly Nagustria bin Awang, Mohd Khalid Budi Prayoga, Muhamad Hafiz Cindo, Mona Dafid Dedik Budianta Deris Stiawan Dian Palupi Rini Dian Palupi Rini Dien Novita Dominica, Alviona Terry Dwi Asa Verano Dwi Lestari, Rizky Dwi Meylitasari Br. Tarigan Dwi Rosa Indah Endang Lestari Ruskan Endy Suherman Erwin, Erwin Eva Darnila Eva Darnila Fajriana, Fajriana Fajriana, Fajriana Falih, Noor Fathiyah, Alyssa Fathoni - Fauza Adelma Syafrizal Fuadi, Wahyu Geovani, Dite Gumay, Naretha Kawadha Pasemah Hadipurnawan Satria Hafyz Sytar, M. Hartini Hartini Hijriani, Nurul Huda Ubaya Huda Ubaya Husnawati Husnawati Iin Seprina Ika Oktavianti ina aisyah handayani Indra Maulana Irmanda, Helena Nurramdhani Ispramono Hadi, Sigit Iwan Pahendra Iwan Pahendra Anto Saputra Jaidan Jauhari Johannes Petrus Joko Purnomo Junia Kurniati Kareen, Pamela Ken Dhita Tania Khairun Nisak, Novrinda Kurniawan, Mochamad Aryo Aji Kurniawan, Rizky Fariz Andry Lovinta Happy Atrinawati M Fariz Januarsyah M. Fariz Januarsyah M. Miftakul Amin Madya, M Miftahul Mahsyurdin, Shofwan Marissa Utami Matondang, Nurhafifah Mauliza Mauliza, Mauliza Megah Mulya Meizalina, Mutiara Amalia Mgs Afriyan Firdaus Miftahul Falah Mira Afrina Mohammed Y. Alzahrani Mona Cindo Monterico Adrian Muhammad Adrezo Muhammad Fachrurrozi Muhammad Qurhanul Rizqie Muhammad Sadli Muhammad Sadli, Muhammad Muhammad, Duwen Imantata Mutammimul Ula Mutia Fadhila Putri Naretha Kawadha Pasemah Gumay Neni Alyani Noprisson, Handrie NUNI GOFAR Nurul Chamidah Nurul Mufliha Eka Putri Nurul Mufliha Eka Putri Octaria, Orissa Osvari Arsalan Pacu Putra Pahendra, Iwan Parwito Patimah, Endah Pratama, M Octaviano Primanita, Anggina Purwita Sari Purwita Sari Purwita Sari, Purwita Putra, Erwin Dwika Rachma nia Rahman, Puti Ayu Andhini Rahmat Budiarto Rahmat Izwan Heroza Rahmat Izwan Heroza Rendra Gustriansyah Reza Firsandaya Malik Richardo, M Denny Richki Hardi Rifkie Primartha Rizka Dhini Kurnia Rizka Dhini Kurnia Rizki Kurniati Royan Dwi Saputra Rudhy Ho Purabaya Ruth Mariana Bunga Wadu Safithri, Selviana Rizki Salamah, Fitri Samsuryadi Samsuryadi Shinta Puspasari Soraya, Atika Suci Destriatania Suci Destriatania Sukemi Sukemi Susan Dwi Saputri Susan Dwi Saputri Sytar, M. Hafizh Terttiaavini, Terttiaavini Tjahjanto, Tjahjanto Tryadriani, Rasqia Nurzulia Verano, Dwi Asa Verlly Puspita Wahyu Fuadi Wahyu Ningsih Willy Yadi Utama Yadi Utama Yudha Pratomo Yudha Pratomo Yudha Pratomo Yundari, Yundari Zalika, Indah Zulkardi