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Nunung Kusnadi
Department Of Agribusiness, Faculty Of Economics And Management, IPB University, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia
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Journal : Journal of Applied Agricultural Science and Technology

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Spatial Heterogeneity of Rice Production Responses to ENSO Anomalies in Banten Province, Indonesia Mulyaqin, Tian; Nurmalina, Rita; Kusnadi, Nunung; Hendro Trisasongko, Bambang
Journal of Applied Agricultural Science and Technology Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Applied Agricultural Science and Technology
Publisher : Green Engineering Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55043/jaast.v10i1.503

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) anomalies are significant drivers of climate variability affecting agricultural production, although their impacts exhibit high spatial and temporal complexity. This study investigates rice production responses to ENSO phases in four districts of Banten Province, Indonesia—Pandeglang, Serang, Lebak, and Tangerang—during the 2000–2024 period. Utilizing descriptive statistics, OLS regression, and comparative time-series models (linear, quadratic, exponential, and moving average), the study evaluates how climatic signals are translated into production outcomes. Results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity. Although El Niño generally suppressed yields, regression analysis identifies Tangerang as the only district with a statistically significant vulnerability to drought-induced losses (β= -33,371 t/year). Conversely, the study identifies a "Triple-Dip" La Niña anomaly (2020–2023) where excessive rainfall reduced production in flood-prone districts such as Pandeglang, challenging the assumption that La Niña universally benefits rice yields. Methodologically, second- and third-order moving average models (MA(2) and MA(3)) consistently outperformed alternative specifications in capturing stochastic fluctuations. These findings underscore the localized nature of ENSO impacts and the inadequacy of generalized policies. The study therefore advocates spatially differentiated adaptation strategies, including localized early warning systems and improved drainage infrastructure, to mitigate drought and flood risks in Banten’s rice systems.
Co-Authors ., Harianto A. Faroby Falatehan A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Abdullah Usman Aditya Arief Rachmadhan Adreng Purwoto Almuttaqin Almuttaqin Amzul Rifin Andriyono Kilat Adhi Ariska Rosadi Al Rasyid Shodiq Ariska Rosadi Al Rasyid Shodiq Bagio, Bagio Bella Septiana Bonar M. Sinaga BONAR M. SINAGA Bonar M. Sinaga Bonar M. Sinaga Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Boyke T. H. Situmorang Burhanuddin Burhanuddin Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von Demitria Dewi Devi Agustia Dewi Nur Asih Didik Suryadi Dira Asri Pramita Dwi Rachmina Eka Denny M Eka Monika Manihuruk Elys Fauziyah Elys Fauziyah Endang Tri Astutiningsih Endriatmo Soetarto Etriya Etriya Fariyanti, Anna Fathimah Sholihah Femi Hadidjah Elly Feryanto Feryanto Feryanto Firna Varina Firza Maudi Firza Maudi Fitriyani Mir`ah Aliyatillah Fitriyani Mir`ah Aliyatillah Freshty Yulia Arthatiani Hafid Raharjo Halil (1 Handewi P. Saliem, Handewi P. Harianto Harianto . Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harmini, Harmini Hartoyo Hartoyo Hendro Trisasongko, Bambang Herawati Herawati Herawati Herawati Hermanto Siregar Hertomo, Eko Yulianto Widhi Hilalullaily, Rivani I Ketut Kariyasa Indah Maharani Innike Abdillah Fahmi Jaka Sumarno Juniar Atmakusuma Khoiru Rizqy Rambe Khoiru Rizqy Rambe Lailandra, Andjani Layyinatul Kholiqoh Lepi Ali Firmansyah, Lepi Ali Lia Fauziah Syam Liston Siringo Ringo Lukman M. Baga M Firdaus M. Yogi Riyantama Isjoni Ma'mun Sarma Mahfudlotul 'Ula Mangara Tambunan Manihuruk, Eka Monika Martokoesoemo, Dewi Ratna Sjari Medita Ivanni Mega Amelia Putri, Mega Amelia Muhammad fauzan Muhammad Surya Fadhlurrohman Mulyani, Een Mulyaqin, Tian Nasution, Siti Sarah Almuizzah Netti Tinaprilla Norfahmi, Femmi Nunung Nuryartono Nurlela Machmudin Nurohmah, Nuri Nabila Nurul Iski Parulian Hutagaol Purwanti, Amanda Anggi Purwoto, Adreng Putri, Tursina Andita Rachmadhan, Aditya Arief Raharjo, Hafid Ratna Winandi Ratna Winandi Rayhana Jafar Reny Hidayati Rianzani, Citra Rita Nurmalina Rusidi Ansyari Harahap Sari Rachmawati Shabrina Shafa Qatrunada Sholihah, Fathimah Silaban, Soeripto Simanjuntak, Josua Desmonda Sinaga, Bonar M. Siti Jahroh Sjafri Mangkuprawira Sri Hartoyo Sri Hartoyo Sri Hartoyo Sri Hery Susilowati Sri Utami Kuntjoro Sri Utami Kuntjoro Suharno Suharno Suharno Suharno Suprehatin Suprehatin Surahman, Taufiq Surahman, Taufiq Susanti Susanti Susilowati, Sri Hery Tb. Sjafri Mangkuprawira Tita Nursiah Ulya Zainura Vinira Hesta Fharaz Wahyu Budi Priatna Wajar Mey Handani WH Limbong Widyastutik Winandi, Ratna Wiyanto - Wiyanto Wiyanto Yanti N. Muflikh Yanto Togi Ferdinand Marpaung Yohana Julina Sinaga Yuhendra Yusman Syaukat Yusman Syaukat Yusman Syaukat Yusman Syaukat Zednita Azriani Zednita Azriani