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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

Analisis Pembayaran Pensiun Aparatur Sipil Negara di Kecamatan Manggala Kota Makassar Menggunakan Metode Projected Unit Credit Pratama, Muhammad Isbar; Lismayani, Angri
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Volume 07 Nomor 01 (April 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i1.2453

Abstract

Program dana pensiun adalah salah satu upaya untuk menjamin kesejahteraan pegawai yang telah mencapai usia pensiun atau tidak lagi mampu bekerja secara produktif. Penelitian ini mengkaji perhitungan kewajiban aktuaria dan iuran normal dana pensiun bagi peserta program pensiun Aparatur Sipil Negara (ASN) di Kantor Kecamatan Manggala, Kota Makassar, dengan menggunakan metode Projected Unit Credit. Perhitungan ini didasarkan pada tingkat kenaikan gaji dan penerimaan gaji setahun sebelum pensiun. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah studi pustaka melalui literatur dari buku dan jurnal terdahulu. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode Projected Unit Credit menghasilkan manfaat pensiun kumulatif tertinggi sebesar Rp 138.309.729, kewajiban aktuaria sebesar Rp 1.508.252.202, dan iuran normal sebesar Rp 47.787.374. Manfaat pensiun terendah tercatat sebesar Rp 31.103.460, kewajiban aktuaria Rp 339.179.770, dan iuran normal Rp 18.843.321. Nilai iuran normal yang lebih kecil disebabkan oleh masa kerja yang panjang, sedangkan besarnya kewajiban aktuaria dipengaruhi oleh nilai sekarang dari manfaat yang akan datang.
Simulasi Sistem Dinamik Model Matematika Kasus Kecanduan Bermain Gadget Bagi Anak Usia Dini dengan Faktor Pengawasan Orang Tua Pratama, Muhammad Isbar; Lismayani, Angri
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 6 No. 2 (2023): Volume 06 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2023)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

This research aims to develop a mathematical model to depict the changes in the level of gadgetaddiction in early childhood of the SEAR type (Susceptible - Exposed - Addicted - Recovered). Themathematical model created is then analyzed for its stability. After the stability analysis, the model is furthersubjected to simulation using Maple 18 software. The simulation is performed three times with differentvalues of parental supervision factors, namely 0.0084, 0.5217, and 0.8214. The simulation results indicatethat the higher the level of parental supervision, the faster the cases of gadget addiction in early childhooddecline.
Penyelesaian Persamaan Panas Dimensi Satu dengan Metode Beda Hingga Skema Eksplisit Sanusi, Wahidah; Pratama, Muhammad Isbar; Side, Syafruddin; Fitriyani
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 5 No. 2 (2022): Volume 05 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2022)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

This research is a pure research in the form of a theoretical study that aims to determine the solution of the one-dimensional heat equation using the finite difference method explicit scheme and to know the simulation of the one-dimensional heat equation. The explicit schema finite difference method is an alternative method used to solve partial differential equations. The first step in this research is to build and analyze the one-dimensional heat equation. Next, discretize the one-dimensional heat equation by usingnumerical derivatives. Then solve the one-dimensional heat equation using an explicit schema. Finally, using the Matlab program to simulate the solution of the one-dimensional heat equation. The simulation results show that there is a change in temperature from a high temperature to a lower temperature which is influenced by time due to the heat transfer process.
Autokorelasi Pada Pembentukan Grafik Kendali Komponen Utama Rasyid, Nur Ahniyanti; Wijaya, Dhian Eka; Firmayasari, Dian; Harianto; Pratama, Muhammad Isbar
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 5 No. 2 (2022): Volume 05 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2022)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

The formation of control chart for autocorrelated data can not be done. This research aims to analyse the effect of autocorrelated data on the formation of principal component control chart. A case study was performed on simulated data with two variables and they were applied on the data of climate elements in Makassar city including air temperature, solar radiation, air humadity,and wind speed. The analysis of the effect of the autocorrelated data was conducted inthree steps, namely: (1) the establishment of the structure of variance-covariance matrix of the autocorrelated data; (2) the establishment of principal component control chart based on the largest eigen valu; and (3) In forming of simulation with two variables. The result indicate that if the data are negatively autocorrelated with avalue of -0,9-(-0,5), the controllimits will be widened, and if the value is -0,5-(-0,1), the control limits will be narrowed.
Simulasi Numerik Model Matematika Arus Lalu Lintas Berbasis Fungsi Velositas Underwood Muh. Isbar Pratama; Dian Firmayasari; Nur Ahyaniyanti Rasyid; Harianto
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021): Volume 04 Nomor 01 (April 2021)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

Abstract. Mathematical traffic flow model was first developed by Lighthill, Whitham and Richards in 1956, known as (LWR) model. In LWR model, velocity function was most important. In this paper, Underwood velocity function was used. Implicit finite difference method used to found the numerical solution of LWR model with Underwood velocity model. Convergence the implicit finite difference method proved using the Lax equivalence theorem. The numerical simulation of 10 km highway of single lane was performed for 1 hours using the implicit finite difference method based on artificially generated initial and boundary data. Numerical simulation performed with two different parameters. An experimental result for the stability condition of the numerical scheme was also presented. Density, velocity, and fluks for 1 hours was experimental result of numerical simulation.
Penerapan Metode ARIMA dalam Meramalkan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik di Kota Makassar Maya Sari Wahyuni; Zaki, Ahmad; Hidayat, Syarif; Pratama, Muhammad Isbar
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Volume 07 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i2.4388

Abstract

. Tingkat pemakaian energi listrik di Kota Makassar tiap bulannya pada tahun 2018 sampai dengan 2022 berbeda-beda. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan peramalan agar dapat dilakukan pengelolaan dan perencanaan kebutuhan energi listrik dengan baik. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui model ARIMA terbaik yang digunakan dalam peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik di Kota Makassar 12 bulan berikutnya. Tahapan untuk menentukan model ARIMA dimulai dari identifikasi kestasioneran data, indentifikasi model sementara, estimasi dan uji signifikansi parameter, uji asumsi residual, pemilihan model terbaik, melakukan peramalan serta uji ketepatan model peramalan. Hasil dari penelitian ini diperoleh model terbaik yaitu ARIMA(1,0,0) dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,4735% yang berarti bahwa model sangat baik dan layak untuk digunakan dalam peramalan. Kata Kunci: Energi Listrik, ARIMA, MAPE The level of electricity consumption in Makassar City every month from 2018 to 2022 is different. Therefore, forecasting is needed so that the management and planning of electrical energy needs can be carried out properly. The purpose of this study was to determine the best ARIMA model to be used in forecasting electricity demand in Makassar City for the next 12 months. The steps for determining the ARIMA model start with identifying the stationarity of the data, identifying temporary models, estimating ang testing the significance of parameters, testing the residual assumptions, selecting the best model, making forecasts and testing the accuracy of the forecasting model. The results of this study were obtained by the best model, ARIMA(1,0,0) with a MAPE value of 0,4735% which said that the model was very good and feasible to use in forecasting. Keywords: Electrical Energy, ARIMA, MAPE
A Study of Social Dynamics in Early Childhood Education Using the PEARS Model as a Mathematical Approach to the Spread of Cooperative and Independent Behaviors Pratama, Muhammad Isbar; Lismayani, Angri
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Volume 07 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i2.4711

Abstract

This study introduces the PEARS (Potential Adopters, Exposed, Active Adopters, Reluctant Adopters, Stable Adopters) model as a mathematical framework to analyze the spread of cooperative and independent behaviors in early childhood education (ECE) settings. Traditional qualitative methods have limitations in capturing the complexity of social dynamics within classrooms, so the PEARS model, adapted from epidemiological models, offers a fresh quantitative approach. The model categorizes children into five behavioral stages, tracking the transition from initial exposure to stable adoption. Through differential equations, the PEARS model quantifies behavioral spread and interactions, allowing the calculation of key metrics, including the basic reproduction number , which indicates the likelihood of behavior propagation within the group. Numerical simulations underscore the model's applicability in predicting behavior spread and evaluating intervention strategies, facilitating data-driven insights into enhancing positive social dynamics among young children. These findings have implications for designing pedagogical interventions aimed at fostering cooperative and independent behaviors in ECE environments.
An Analysis of Expected Return and Risk for Determining the Efficient Portfolio of Financial Firms Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Pratama, Muhammad Isbar; Lismayani, Angri
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.7821

Abstract

Investors can allocate their funds in many ways, but stock investment is one of the most popular. To obtain a favorable return and minimize risk, investors must consider several factors in order to achieve optimal investment outcomes. The formation of a stock portfolio serves as a means for investors to maximize their investment performance. The objective of this study is to calculate the expected return and portfolio risk to determine the efficient portfolio among financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The calculations identify three portfolio combinations as the efficient ones. Portfolio 1, with a fund proportion of 40% : 60%, yields an expected return of 0.00032 or 0.032% and a portfolio risk of 0.059 or 5.9%. Portfolio 2 has an expected return of 0.0128 or 1.28% and a portfolio risk of 0.0504 or 5.04%. Portfolio 3 yields an expected return of 0.0057 or 0.57% and a portfolio risk of 0.0667 or 6.67%. Based on these results, Portfolio 2 is identified as the efficient portfolio, as it provides the highest expected return, albeit with relatively high risk. This type of investment is typically preferred by risk-seeking investors, who are inclined toward high-risk, high-return opportunities
Mathematical Modelling of Dengue Fever Spread with Education-Based Prevention in South Sulawesi Pratama, Muhammad Isbar; Mariani, Mariani; Fadilah, Nur; Wahyuni, Maya Sari
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.10907

Abstract

Dengue Fever (DF) remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, including South Sulawesi, Indonesia, where increasing case numbers highlight the urgent need for more effective disease control strategies. Traditional approaches that rely solely on medical treatment and vector suppression have shown limited long-term success, thus necessitating complementary preventive interventions such as health education. This study develops a deterministic SIRS host–vector mathematical model to analyse the epidemiological dynamics of DF transmission and to quantify the impact of educational intervention on reducing disease spread. The model incorporates human susceptibility, infection, temporary immunity, mosquito–human transmission mechanisms, and an education parameter that represents the rate at which susceptible individuals become effectively protected. Stability analysis is conducted to determine the conditions for disease persistence or elimination, and the basic reproduction number is derived using the next-generation matrix method. Numerical simulations are performed using biologically realistic parameter values for South Sulawesi. The results show that when , both human and vector infections converge to endemic equilibrium levels, consistent with the theoretical analysis. However, increasing the education-related protection parameter significantly reduces infection prevalence and can bring below unity, leading to disease eradication. The findings demonstrate that educational interventions play a critical role in reducing transmission intensity and complementing vector control measures. This study provides a mathematical foundation for evaluating community-based education as a sustainable component of DF prevention, offering valuable insights for public health policy in dengue-endemic regions.
Backtesting of the Value-at-Risk Based on GARCH Model (VaR-GARCH) in Measuring Stock Market Risk Mufaridho, Lailatul Maziyah Wildan; SH, Khaerun Nisa; Jalaludin, Paiz; Pratama, Muhammad Isbar
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/eyqd4722

Abstract

Accurate market risk measurement is a crucial aspect of stock portfolio management, particularly in volatile market conditions. One commonly used method for measuring market risk is Value-at-Risk (VaR). However, the conventional VaR approach often fails to capture the dynamics of volatile volatility. Therefore, this study aims to measure stock market risk using a GARCH-based Value-at-Risk approach and test the model's reliability using the Kupiec Proportion of Failures Test. The data used are daily stock price data processed into logarithmic returns. Return volatility is estimated using the GARCH(1,1) model, and the VaR value is calculated based on conditional volatility at a 5 percent significance level. VaR backtesting is then performed to identify violations and evaluate the model's validity using the Kupiec Test. The results of the study show that out of 653 observations, there were 27 VaR violations, with a Kupiec statistic value of 1.0909 and a p-value of 0.2963. A p-value greater than the significance level indicates that the VaR–GARCH model is statistically valid and able to measure market risk well. This study concludes that the VaR–GARCH approach is a reliable method in measuring stock market risk and can be used as a supporting tool in investment decision-making and risk management.
Co-Authors Abdal, Nurul Mukhlisah Ade Septiani Kusuma Dewi ahmad yani Ahmad Zaki Aisyah Zahra Ramadhani Asya Aisyiah Restutiningsih Putri Utami Akbar Amriani H, Sri Rika Andi Muhammad Ridho Sainon Andi Pandjajangi Andi Muhammad Ridho SAP Andi Nur Fitriani Abubakar Andi Sadriani Anggriani, Nita Angri Lismayani Angri Lismayani Arwin Arwin Ashari, Asty Asmira Asti, A. Sri Wahyuni Astri Utari Benedicta, Angel Damang, Dahnial Dedy Aswan Dhian Eka Wijaya Dian Atmasani Dian Firmayasari Dian Firmayasari Elfira Jumrah Ermita Ermita Fitriana Fitriani Dzulfadhilah Fitriyani Fitriyani Fitriyani H. Harianto Hardianti Hafid Harianto Harianto Harianto Hasmiati Hasri Hasri Ifkah, Siti Nur Ilham Minggi Ilma Wulansari Hasdiansa Imran, Nabila Ramadhani Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Karwingsi, Ersa Lailatul Maziyah Wildan Mufaridho Lilis Handayani Mallolongeng, Fitrah Mariani Mariani Mariani Meliyana R, S.Pd, M.Si, Sitti Masyitah Miftahul Jannah Muh Al Rasyid Ridho Muh. Taufiqurahman Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Ammar Naufal Muhammad Ridho Yusuf SAP Muhammad Rifandi Muliana GH Muthahharah, Isma Nor Zila Abdul Hamid Nur Ahniyanti Rasyid Nur Ahyaniyanti Rasyid NUR FADILAH Nur, Fauzi Fikriyyah Nurhaedah Nurul Fadilah Aswar Nurul Mukhlisah Abdal Nurul Sakinah Padjalangi, Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Paiz Jalaludin Parwoto, Parwoto Raden Mohamad Herdian Bhakti Ramadhani, Wafi Bintang Rezky Amalia Hamka Rezky Amalia Hamka Rika Kurnia RIKA KURNIA R Rosauli Novalina Samosir Ruliana Rusmayadi Rustam, Ilmi Nurfaizah Saadatul Husna Sadriani, Andi Sahlan Sidjara Sanusi, Wahida SH, Khaerun Nisa Sidjara, Sahlan Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Sitti Nailah Rustam Sitti Rahmi Sri Auliyah S Sri Rika Amriani Sri Rika Amriani. H Sri Rika Amriani.H Sutrisno, Sutrisno Syafruddin Side Syarif Hidayat Thaha, Irwan Tri Sugiarti, Tri Viktoria Cristie Ressa Wahidah Sanusi Wahyuni, Maya Sari Waode, Yully Sofyah Yusuf S.A.P., Andi Muh. Ridho Zahra, Nora Auliya Zakiyah Mar’ah Zakiyah Mar’ah