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Forecasting Indonesian inflation using a hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS Fitriyati, Nina; Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Wijaya, Madona Yunita; Maysun, Maysun
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 5 No. 3 (2022): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v5i3.14093

Abstract

This paper discusses the prediction of the inflation rate in Indonesia. The data used in this research is assumed to have both linear and non-linear components. The ARIMA model is selected to accommodate the linear component, while the ANFIS method accounts for the non-linear component in the inflation data. Thus, the model is known as the hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS model. The clustering method is performed in the ANFIS model using Fuzzy C-Mean (FMS) with a Gaussian membership function. Consider 2 to 6 clusters. The optimal number of clusters is assessed according to the minimum value of the error prediction. To evaluate the performance of the fitted hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS model, it can be compared to the classical ARIMA model and with the ordinary ANFIS model. The result reveals that the best ARIMA model for inflation prediction in Indonesia is ARIMA(2,1,0). In the hybrid ARIMA(2,1,0)-ANFIS model, two clusters are optimal. Meanwhile, the optimum number of clusters in the ordinary ANFIS model is six. The comparison of prediction accuracy confirms that the hybrid model is superior to the individual model alone of either ARIMA or ANFIS model.
The estimation of the hazard function of earthquakes in aceh province with likelihood approach Maulidi, Ikhsan; Novika, Fanny; Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Apriliani, Vina; Syazali, Muhamad
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 7 No. 3 (2024): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v7i3.21489

Abstract

In this article, we propose a novel application of the single decrement method with a likelihood approach to estimate the hazard function of earthquake events in Aceh province. While this method has traditionally been used in actuarial sciences for mortality table estimation, its application in seismic hazard estimation represents a new perspective in the field of earthquake risk analysis. To enhance the accuracy of the model, we applied the Box-Cox transformation to normalize the data and used simple regression to formulate the hazard function. Our results demonstrate that a cubic equation provides a more accurate model compared to linear and quadratic equations, as evidenced by the lower Mean Square Error (MSE). This study offers a new approach to hazard rate estimation that surpasses conventional methods by providing more informative and interpretable results for earthquake risk assessment.
Enhancing Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) performance through accounting knowledge, e-commerce, and network relationships Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Pamularsi, Anggita
Journal of Enterprise and Development (JED) Vol. 5 No. 3 (2023): Journal of Enterprise and Development (JED)
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business of Universitas Islam Negeri Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20414/jed.v5i3.8398

Abstract

Purpose — The growth and development of MSMEs are increasing rapidly. In order to gain customers and survive in an intensely competitive and uncertain market, MSMEs should improve their knowledge and technology, have a good understanding of electronic commerce, and expand their network relationships. This research aims to analyze the influence of accounting knowledge, understanding of e-commerce, and network relationships on the performance of MSMEs.Method — This study employs a quantitative research approach, conducted through a survey. Data were acquired by distributing questionnaires to MSME owners. The sample for this study comprises 96 MSMEs in the city of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The independent variables in this study include accounting knowledge, understanding of e-commerce, and network relationships, while the dependent variable is the performance of MSMEs. To test the proposed hypotheses, this research utilizes multiple linear regression analysis with SPSS software for data processing.Result — The results of this research show empirical evidence that accounting knowledge, the use of e-commerce, and network relationships have a positive and significant effect on the performance of MSMEs.Contribution — This research examines the roles of accounting knowledge, the use of e-commerce technology, and business networks in MSMEs. These aspects have not been widely studied by previous researchers. The study provides new insights for MSMEs to improve performance from both internal perspectives, such as accounting and e-commerce adoption, and external perspectives, such as expanding business network relationships.
The Role of Creativity and Innovation in Menus in Attracting Millennial Consumers to the Culinary Business Lie, Oleh Tjhing Man; Hadi, Bawa Mulyono; Mahmudi, Mahmudi
Jurnal Ekonomi Kreatif dan Manajemen Bisnis Digital Vol 4 No 1 (2025): AGUSTUS
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/jekombital.v4i1.989

Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of menu creativity and innovation on the purchasing interest of millennial consumers in the culinary business. The background of this study is based on changes in the consumption behaviour of millennials, who not only pursue taste but also pay attention to visual aspects, unique value, and emotional experiences when choosing food. This study employs a quantitative-descriptive approach using a survey method targeting 120 millennial respondents who actively consume creative and innovative culinary offerings. The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression with the assistance of SPSS. The results of the study indicate that menu creativity (β = 0.341; p < 0.001) and menu innovation (β = 0.468; p < 0.001) have a positive and significant effect on millennial consumers' purchasing interest, both partially and simultaneously (R² = 0.576; F = 47.53; p < 0.001). These findings support the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) theory, which explains that creativity and innovation as stimuli can shape consumers' perceptions and emotions, ultimately leading to purchasing decisions. This study provides strategic implications for culinary business actors to integrate creative design and innovative approaches in product development to be more relevant to the preferences of the digital-native generation.
Analisis Logam Berat pada Jamu Pegal Linu yang Beredar di Kota Banda Aceh Farida, Mutia; Safrina, Nurul; Kurniaty, Rina; Azhari, Saiful; Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Yusuf , Muhammad
Journal of Pharmaceutical and Sciences JPS Volume 8 Nomor 3 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Farmasi Universitas Tjut Nyak Dhien

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36490/journal-jps.com.v8i3.606

Abstract

Background: Jamu pegal linu (traditional Indonesian herbal medicine for muscle and joint pain) is widely consumed to relieve muscle and bone discomfort. However, there are concerns about heavy metal contamination, particularly lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg), in some products circulating in Banda Aceh City. Such contamination poses serious health risks, including organ damage and poisoning, necessitating thorough analysis to ensure product safety. Objective: This study aimed to detect and measure Pb and Hg levels in jamu pegal linu samples sold on Diponegoro Street, Banda Aceh, and compare them with the safety limits set by the Indonesian Food and Drug Authority (BPOM RI). Methods: A total of 23 samples were qualitatively analyzed using KI, NaOH, and HCl reagents (for Pb) and HNO₃ and KI (for Hg). Positive samples were further analyzed quantitatively using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (AAS). Method validation included linearity, precision, accuracy, LoD, and LoQ assessments. Results: Qualitative testing revealed Pb and Hg contamination in 12 samples. Pb levels ranged from 1.45–9.17 mg/kg (below BPOM’s threshold of ≤10 mg/kg), while Hg levels ranged from 0.14–1.37 mg/kg, with six samples exceeding the safe limit (≤0.5 mg/kg). The highest Hg concentration (1.37 mg/kg) was found in an unregistered product. Conclusion: Most jamu pegal linu products in Banda Aceh contain heavy metals, particularly Hg, at unsafe levels. Strict regulatory oversight, especially for unregistered products, is crucial to safeguard public health.
An analysis of performance measurement system used in Indonesia local government Murti, Ridho Bayu; Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Nurfauziya, Ahada
Journal of Contemporary Accounting Volume 3 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Master in Accounting Program, Faculty of Business & Economics, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/jca.vol3.iss2.art2

Abstract

This study examines the antecedents and consequences of the use of the performance measurement system of local government. It aimed to investigate the effect of organizational culture, external pressures, and leadership commitment using a performance measurement system. It also further investigates whether the use of a performance measurement system affects public accountability. The data were collected by distributing a questionnaire to the local government staff. The sample of this study was civil servants of the Special Region of Yogyakarta. There were 95 respondents in this study. In analyzing the data, multiple linear regression was used. The results indicate that organizational culture, external pressures, and leadership commitments significantly affected the performance measurement system. It also found that using a performance measurement system had a significant positive effect on public accountability. 
Extension on Making Lime Dishwashing Soap With The Addition of Pandan Leaf Extract in Lhoknga Village, Aceh Besar District: Penyuluhan Pembuatan Sabun Cuci Piring Jeruk Nipis dengan Penambahan Ekstrak Daun Pandan di Desa Lhoknga Kabupaten Aceh Besar Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Farida, Mutia; Azhari, Saiful
Jukeshum: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Edisi Juli 2025
Publisher : Universitas Haji Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51771/jukeshum.v5i2.1453

Abstract

This community service activity aims to provide education and training to the people of Lhoknga Village, Aceh Besar Regency, on how to make dishwashing soap from natural ingredients. In this training, lime is used for its effective ability to remove grease and dirt, while pandan leaf extract is added as a refreshing natural fragrance. The training is conducted practically through soap-making sessions, enabling participants to gain not only theoretical knowledge but also hands-on skills in producing soap independently using readily available local materials. Through this initiative, it is hoped that positive impacts will be created for the environment and the local economy, while also fostering awareness of the importance of using environmentally friendly products. Additionally, this training opens opportunities for the development of small-scale businesses based on household products with market value
Deconstruction of the Existence of Khidr: A Study of Sheikh Mahfudz al-Tarmasi’s Thought Through Derridean Hermeneutics Approach Agil, Muhammad; Alwi, Alwi Shobri; Mahmudi, Mahmudi
Al-Insyiroh: Jurnal Studi Keislaman Vol. 10 No. 2 (2024): September 2024
Publisher : LPPPM STAI Darul Hikmah Bangkalan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35309/alinsyiroh.v10i2.296

Abstract

Discussions on the existence of Prophet Khidr in Islamic tradition have long been debated. Questions about his status as a prophet or saint, whether he is still alive or has passed away, and other issues remain significant among Muslims. These debates have also drawn the interest of Sheikh Mahfudz al-Tarmasi, a prominent Nusantara scholar. In his work, “Ināyat al-Muftaqir bimā Yata`allaq bi Sayyidinā al-Khidr `Alaihi al-Salām.” al-Tarmasi offers detailed and critical insights into Prophet Khidr’s existence. This research examines al-Tarmasi views using Derridean hermeneutics to deconstruct traditional thoughts on Prophet Khidr and encourage new interpretations. Employing a qualitative descriptive literature method, the study aims to gain a deeper understanding of Prophet Khidr’s existence. By applying Derrida’s deconstructive approach, this paper shows how al-Tarmasi addresses the contradictions among the views of Sufis, hadith scholars, and jurists about Prophet Khidr. The findings suggest that al-Tarmasi supports the idea that Prophet Khidr is still alive, thus reinforcing the Sufi perspective in Islamic tradition. This alignment not only highlights al-Tarmasi’s critical stance but also contributes to the broader discourse on the diverse interpretations of Islamic teachings.
Analisa Peluang dan Strategi Usaha Produk Baru Perawatan Kulit Su Ai Warga Klepu di Jabodetabek Sukapti, Sri; Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Harjianto, Puji
Jurnal Pengabdian Tangerang Selatan [JURANTAS] Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): (Januari-April) Jurnal Pengabdian Tangerang Selatan
Publisher : LAP4B

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58174/jrt.v2i1.122

Abstract

Kegiatan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (PKM) ini bertujuan untuk memecahkan permasalahan mitra pada produk baru perawatan kulit SU AI dalam menetapkan strategi usaha produk baru dengan berkonsentrasi pada aspek pengelolaan keuangan dan sumber daya manusia. Dimana inti masalah yang akan dipecahkan berkaitan dengan masih belum jelasnya strategi yang tepat dalam meluncurkan produk baru sesuai peluang pasar, masih belum paham teknik mengelola keuangan dan SDM yang tepat agar dapat menggapai peluang usaha. Metode yang digunakan pada pelaksanaan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat ini adalah Workshop dan pembimbingan. Dimana sebelumnya dilakukan tahapan observasi langsung guna mengetahui permasalah mitra. Pelatihan ini digunakan untuk untuk memberikan pemahaman mendalam tentang strategi usaha, pengelolaan keuangan dan SDM dalam usaha pemula khususnya pada usaha kecil yang bergerak dibidang produk perawatan kulit. Hal ini bertujuan agar Anggota Paguyuban yang menggeluti bidang usaha tersebut dapat memahami dan menerapkan strategi pasar dan pengelolaan keuangan dan SDM dengan cukup baik. Hasil pelaksanaan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (PKM) pada sesi workshop diperoleh skor sebesar 5.05 masuk dalam kategori sangat baik. Selain itu semua agenda kegiatan berjalan dengan sangat lancar dan seluruh peserta yang hadir dipastikan mendapatkan pemahaman materi dengan sangat baik. Pada akhir sesi pelatihan peserta diberikan juga praktek sederhana guna menunjang kemampuan implementasi strategi usaha dan pengelolaan keuangan serta SDM pada usaha yang sudah berjalan.
Peran Sumber Daya Manusia Dalam Membangun Kemandirian Dan Keberdayaan Anak-Anak Asuh Di Rumah Yatim Dan Dhuafa Al-Amien Ciater, Serpong, Kota Tangerang Selatan Sukapti, Sri; Astria, Kenny; Mahmudi, Mahmudi
Jurnal Pengabdian Tangerang Selatan [JURANTAS] Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): (Mei-Agustus) Jurnal Pengabdian Tangerang Selatan
Publisher : LAP4B

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58174/jrt.v2i2.168

Abstract

Tujuan dari pelaksanaan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat ini untuk membantu permasalahan mitra pada Rumah Yatim dan Dhuafa dalam menyelesaikan permasalahan utama mereka yakni, belum kuatnya pengembangan kapasitas SDM untuk pemberdayaan berkelanjutan, belum terpenuhinya Kolaborasi dan Kemitraan SDM dengan Pihak Eksternal, serta belum memaksimalkan Peran Pengasuh dan Pendidik dalam Pembentukan Karakter Metode yang digunakan pada pelaksanaan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat ini adalah Workshop dan pendampingan. Dimana sebelumnya dilakukan tahapan observasi langsung guna mengetahui permasalah yang muncul pada lokasi penelitian. Pelatihan ini digunakan untuk untuk memberikan pemahaman mendalam tentang manajemen SDM khususnya pengelolaan SDM pada operasional yayasan. Hasil pelaksanaan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat terukur kedalam tabel dengan pencapaian skor sebesar 4.85 masuk dalam kategori sangat baik. Selain itu rangkaian berjalan dengan sangat lancar dan seluruh peserta yang hadir dipastikan mendapatkan pemahaman materi dengan sangat baik. Pada akhir sesi pelatihan peserta diberikan juga praktek sederhana guna menunjang kemampuan implementasi pengelolaan SDM. Sebagai penyempurnaan dan memastikan kemampuan peserta dalam menerapkan materi secara maksimal, akan dilakukan tahapan evaluasi secara berkala dari tim dosen dan praktisi pengajar.
Co-Authors Abdul Muis Achmad Taufiq Adinanta, Hendra Agus Arwani Agus Imam Santoso Agus Winarsih Ahmad Taufiq Aisyah, Maulidyati Al Ghifari , Abudzar Alfariza, Agus Aziz Alwi, Alwi Shobri Anggun Rizki Anida Anida Anida Anida, Anida Ardhian Putra, Govan Arya Imamuddin Koeswara, Arya Imamuddin Asep Rusyana Astria, Kenny Azhari, Saiful Azizi, Nur Bambang Saputra Bulut, Sefa Chairul Amriyah Dachi, Andreas Aditama Danang Setyadi Dekar Urumsah Dewi Nindiasari, Avininda Dewi, Herlina Rahmawati Dian P. Prabowo., Ivy Dwi Ariyani, Asri Dwi Rugiarti, Novi Edi Kurniawan Elfiyanti, Gustina Elfurqany, Nuwairy Fachrunniza, Yunda Fahmi, Mulkan Fidia Deny Tisna Amijaya Hadi, Bawa Mulyono Hadi, Nasrul Hafnani Hafnani Hamdi, Syaiful Hari Santoso Harjianto, Puji Herawati Susilo Herlina Rahmawati Dewi Hidayat, Afnenda Rachmalia Ichsan Fauzi Rachman Iftihor, Iftihor Ika Sarah Mahsitah Ilmawati, Dwi Irkhamuddin, Irkhamuddin Irma Rahayu, Irma Jakaria Jakaria Kabes, Wetty Queenisa Kwantono, Hansel Timothy Lestari, Winda Ayu Mei Lestariningsih, Titin Lie, Oleh Tjhing Man lie, Tjhing Man Linawati , Linawati Linawati Linawati Lutfan Milzam, Ahmad Machnunah Ani Zulfah, Machnunah Ani Maftukhah, Tatik Mahmud, Dini Rosyada Manan, Muhammad Abdul Mau, Daniel Pandu Maulidi, Ikhsan Maysun, Maysun Mentari Maghfirani Riyadi Muhamad Abdul Manan Muhamad Syazali MUHAMMAD AGIL Muhammad Ikhwan Muhammad Manaqib, Muhammad Muhammad Ramadhan Muhammad Yusuf Mulyono, Bawa Hadi Mursyidah, Nelly Murti, Ridho Bayu Mutia Farida, Mutia Mutiara Annisa Muzdalipah Musda Muzdalipah Najamuddin , Yunan Nina Fitriyati Nisrina Nur Aini Novika, Fanny Nur Rizky Apdaresena Nurfauziya, Ahada Nurillah, Usmau Lidya Nurmaleni, Nurmaleni Nurmaulidar Nurmaulidar Pamularsi, Anggita Pasaribu, Sri Rizki Aprilianti Prabowo, Ivy Dian P Prabowo, Ivy Dian Puspitasari Prakosa, Jalu A. Pratiwi, Enggar B. Purwowibowo Purwowibowo, Purwowibowo R. Priyanto Radhiah, Radhiah Rafiq Maulana Rahima Rahima Rahman, Sunarti Abd Raiyan, Raiyan Rania Abdul Aziz Baraba Rara Mita Mayang Aginsyah Ratna Ekawati Reni Yendrawati Renny Sukmono, Renny Rifqi Muhammad Rina Kurniaty Rinaldi Idroes Ristawati, Ristawati Rito Goejantoro, Rito Riyanto, Eko Riza Rahmady Daeng Rizal, Alvin Noor Sahab Rosita Rosita Rosye H.R. Tanjung Rustandi, Dadang Safira, Satyarani Safitri, Issa Bella Safrina, Nurul Saiful Amri Saiful Saiful Saimul Laili Salami, Muhammad Musyfiq Saputra, T Murdani Setiawan, Eureka Milky Sidqi, Serin Tias Siti Rusdiana Siti Sarah, Siti Sofwan Hidayat, Muhtar Sri Wahyuni Suharno Suharno Sukapti, Sri Supatmin, Supatmin Supeni Sufaati Suryadi Suryadi Sutanto, Taufik Edy Suyud El Syam , Robingun Syahrini, Intan Tarigan, Daniel Christian Teduh Dirgahayu, Teduh Umamul Barik, Zaidus Surur Usman, Tarmizi Vina Apriliani Wahidah, Nina Ikhwati Wibawa, Dwi Ari WIDIASTUTI - Wijaya, Madona Yunita Wijonarko, Sensus Yanne Irene, Yanne Yuliana Yuliana Yusuf , Muhammad Zulfiani, Utari Zulkifli, Dhea Urfina